Why is the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season underperforming expectations?

[CyclonicFury]

This season could very well finish above average in the end. Below the highest forecasts for sure, but maybe Beryl meant something after all. 2024 had the earliest MDR major hurricane in the satellite era, and now Kirk is expected to become the latest!

Definitely a strange and anomalous season. July (despite no TCs forming in the month) produced more ACE than August or September, and October could even produce more ACE than August and September combined.

[chaser1]

What is peculiar though is how all Global models suddenly go quite following the disturbance trailing Kirk. The Caribbean/GOM wave maybe being the only exception but only ICON & CMC take it to 998 mb right now and its development remains questionable. Perhaps these last few days was "our flurry" of activity for the year. That or the MJO gives us one last tease around end of October/November? For now though it seems like Switch on and boom, switch off again

[EasyTiger]

What is peculiar though is how all Global models suddenly go quite following the disturbance trailing Kirk. The Caribbean/GOM wave maybe being the only exception but only ICON & CMC take it to 998 mb right now and its development remains questionable. Perhaps these last few days was "our flurry" of activity for the year. That or the MJO gives us one last tease around end of October/November? For now though it seems like Switch on and boom, switch off again

I think we're seeing the effects of the MJO. This has happened in the past where we see a flurry of storms and they all seem to fizzle out at the same time

[CyclonicFury]

What is peculiar though is how all Global models suddenly go quite following the disturbance trailing Kirk. The Caribbean/GOM wave maybe being the only exception but only ICON & CMC take it to 998 mb right now and its development remains questionable. Perhaps these last few days was "our flurry" of activity for the year. That or the MJO gives us one last tease around end of October/November? For now though it seems like Switch on and boom, switch off again

I think we're seeing the effects of the MJO. This has happened in the past where we see a flurry of storms and they all seem to fizzle out at the same time

I'm expecting the latter half of October to quiet down as the MJO propagates eastward towards the Maritime Continent/WPAC. Maybe there could be one last hurrah in early November when the MJO returns.

[Category5Kaiju]

If I travelled back in time to late August/early September and said that there was going to be multiple powerful Cape Verde hurricanes in October and that the season was going to roar back with a vengeance, I would've gotten banned from this forum.

[Ubuntwo]

If I travelled back in time to late August/early September and said that there was going to be multiple powerful Cape Verde hurricanes in October and that the season was going to roar back with a vengeance, I would've gotten banned from this forum.

Many forum members - including myself - were suggesting that the abnormally high ITCZ placement would cause a strong and late CV season at that time. You would've been okay

[CyclonicFury]

Decided to change the title because I don't think the Atlantic is underperforming expectations anymore

[AJC3]

Decided to change the title because I don't think the Atlantic is underperforming expectations anymore

With that, this thread will be locked and further seasonal discussion can go on in the Seasonal/indicators thread