WPAC: KRATHON - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
HWRF does not have this making landfall in Taiwan, but continuing northwest, stalling and dissipating between there and China.
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
Here close to Hsinchu it is the big silence before the storm; practically no wind, 34°C (93.2°F) in our yard with very strong sunshine.
The CWA predicts landfall in Kaohsiung tomorrow evening (current movement 4km/h (2,5mile/h) and exit 12(!) hours later from Yilan ...
Let's just hope the mountain ridge will weaken the thing soon after it lands !
Big worry is that because of the stream of earthquakes lately the loose ground and rocks will flush down in gigantic slides onto the coastal road and railroad.
This already started albeit small scale yesterday morning at highway 9 close to Su'ao one of the many tunnels, have a look and listen:
The CWA predicts landfall in Kaohsiung tomorrow evening (current movement 4km/h (2,5mile/h) and exit 12(!) hours later from Yilan ...
Let's just hope the mountain ridge will weaken the thing soon after it lands !
Big worry is that because of the stream of earthquakes lately the loose ground and rocks will flush down in gigantic slides onto the coastal road and railroad.
This already started albeit small scale yesterday morning at highway 9 close to Su'ao one of the many tunnels, have a look and listen:
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- mrbagyo
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
I’m surprised that the discussion of this storm has been so quiet.
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
Fancy1002 wrote:I’m surprised that the discussion of this storm has been so quiet.
Probably because Krathon's intensification and peak happened during or just after Helene, when many members feel burnt out. Activitiy also wanes naturally the later it is in the season: the Gulf of Mexico AOI isn't getting as much attention as I'd thought for a system that might hit Florida, either.
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
Teban54 wrote:Fancy1002 wrote:I’m surprised that the discussion of this storm has been so quiet.
Probably because Krathon's intensification and peak happened during or just after Helene, when many members feel burnt out. Activitiy also wanes naturally the later it is in the season: the Gulf of Mexico AOI isn't getting as much attention as I'd thought for a system that might hit Florida, either.
Yep... Krathon already peaked, and barring some records like what happened in Basco, Batanes... this system is kind of boring to watch now unless it makes a surprise. Right now I'm eagerly waiting for the low pressure to form southeast of the Marianas where the models are developing it.
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- HurricaneEnzo
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
Looks like upwelling induced weakening is really starting to take effect.
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
Krathon may have been dramatically underassessed by agencies. Based on the reports from Josh of iCyclone on ground and related wind observations, it did not feel like a Cat 1. Pressure obs were high, however
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Krathon may have been dramatically underassessed by agencies. Based on the reports from Josh of iCyclone on ground and related wind observations, it did not feel like a Cat 1. Pressure obs were high, however
Please be specific on the "related wind observations." Pressure obs were high to support a Pacific storm of much greater than cat 1. Media interests were low, as you say, so I have not yet found any images of damage of more than a cat 1 storm. Have you? Please post links. I did just look at all the clips that a chaser who calls himself "Icycone" posted on Twitter. I did very briefly hear the "hurricane howl" sound that begins when gusts reach hurricane force, for a few seconds on two occasions; and maybe reached 85 mph very briefly, during those clips.
Of course that one storm chaser's position might not have coincided with the geographic spot where the highest winds occurred at landfall.
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List of 79 tropical cyclones intercepted by Richard Horodner:
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
former storm2k screenname Beoumont 2009+
http://www.canebeard.com/page/page/572246.htm
former storm2k screenname Beoumont 2009+
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Re: WPAC: KRATHON - Typhoon
canebeard wrote:xtyphooncyclonex wrote:Krathon may have been dramatically underassessed by agencies. Based on the reports from Josh of iCyclone on ground and related wind observations, it did not feel like a Cat 1. Pressure obs were high, however
Please be specific on the "related wind observations." Pressure obs were high to support a Pacific storm of much greater than cat 1. Media interests were low, as you say, so I have not yet found any images of damage of more than a cat 1 storm. Have you? Please post links. I did just look at all the clips that a chaser who calls himself "Icycone" posted on Twitter. I did very briefly hear the "hurricane howl" sound that begins when gusts reach hurricane force, for a few seconds on two occasions; and maybe reached 85 mph very briefly, during those clips.
Of course that one storm chaser's position might not have coincided with the geographic spot where the highest winds occurred at landfall.
This may not be official, am not sure of the veracity, but the Kaohsiung City Port Authority apparently showed data that 46.2 m/s (~166.32 km/h) were recorded based on what Chinese-speaking users are saying.
Hoping to see if there are official, easily-accessible observations that could confirm whether what they said is true --- esp from the CWB --- because this seems a bit complicated to properly decode. Josh may have been in a mesovortex as well. The lowest pressure recorded close to him was 977.8 mb, so those recordings may have just been gusts or at an elevated place.
Regardless, it was an interesting chase especially for an official category 1 and shows we shouldn't let our guard down. By their tweets, it seems they took a beating.
https://x.com/ELTF_Creeper_65/status/1841913382401933718
https://x.com/ELTF_Creeper_65/status/1841728650850533424
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REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
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