Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form towards the end of the week or
over the weekend as the broader disturbance moves fully into the
Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the U.S. Gulf Coast should continue
to monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS:
https://i.ibb.co/wpbtgxL/gfs.jpg

Lets hope that doesnt verify or anything close.

Hello extreme track anomaly on the 18z GFS

[Hammy]

GFS seriously struggling with consistency here... one run is a hurricane, next is an open trough.

Seems like there's actually two features here--one in the BoC and another in the Caribbean, and the models are struggling to figure out which one of these will actually develop, but once it gets a handle on one in any given run, it blows it up into (depending on the run) a Cat 1-3 hurricane

[SFLcane]

Nearly a cat 2 there…

[canes92]

Nearly a cat 2 there…

https://i.postimg.cc/Xq9Rs6fn/IMG-9531.gif

Which direction does the model have it going?

[toad strangler]

Nearly a cat 2 there…

https://i.postimg.cc/Xq9Rs6fn/IMG-9531.gif

Which direction does the model have it going?

ENE into the central FL peninsula and then SE after passing through into the Atlantic Basin. Would be quite the notable anomalous track

[gatorcane]

Nearly a cat 2 there…

https://i.postimg.cc/Xq9Rs6fn/IMG-9531.gif

Which direction does the model have it going?

Saved loop:

[chris_fit]

Lol Happy Hour GFS are you serious?

[SFLcane]

Lol Happy Hour GFS are you serious?

Option has always been on the table just have to wait and see if a coherent disturbance can get going.

 https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1841254659597426934

[SFLcane]

 https://x.com/wxpatel/status/1841254668002894130

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS:

[BobHarlem]

Is the GFS just catching on to the East Pacific TD11 E crossing over and redeveloping in the BoC here (Ala What the TD11E Halfs model runs show)? Is that even related to the west Caribbean area?

[SFLcane]

Is the GFS just catching on to the East Pacific TD11 E crossing over and redeveloping in the BoC here (Ala What the TD11E Halfs model runs show)? Is that even related to the west Caribbean area?

Lol see my post above.

[xironman]

Looks like a trough off the coast of Honduras this morning. Shear dropping, vorticity displaced south. From the map though the BOC seems to be the place.

[xironman]

Actual recent ASCAT, how weird is that

[eastcoastFL]

It looks like every model is coming up with something in the gulf. They all appear to take it towards Florida also. They just don’t agree on where it all starts right now.

[eastcoastFL]

The kindling is there now. Time to see if any of it ignites.

[SFLcane]

EPS perked up again overnight..

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Very sharp hook usually means a close front, lots of shear and dry air hopefully will kill this one and bring a wave of pleasant weather over Florida.

We've had our yearly hurricane disaster, we're closed for business now.

[cycloneye]

8 AM:

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms from the southwestern
Caribbean Sea into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental
conditions could support some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form over the weekend as the broader
disturbance moves fully into the Gulf of Mexico. Interests along the
U.S. Gulf Coast should continue to monitor the progress of this
system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.