ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Kirk’s going to town right now and everyone’s gone, lol

There isn’t even a mesoscale sector on it lol

[WaveBreaking]

Eye is quickly warming up

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Well on its way to major hurricane status; should be one by 2am Eastern.

[Teban54]

Eye is quickly warming up

https://i.imgur.com/ia2aFsk.gif

I wanted to say that's one of the fastest eye-clearing episodes I've seen, but I feel I've said this many times in recent years.

[Ubuntwo]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1841606397156343895

[aspen]

 https://x.com/EricBlake12/status/1841606397156343895

That’s some gorgeous textbook RI right there. Might be a major by 11pm, although I’m skeptical the NHC will jump over Cat 2 unless they put out a special update.

[Nimbus]

At 19 degrees N its still got plenty of warm sea surface temps and doesn't look like any shear in the area.
Is Bermuda in the cone?

[MarioProtVI]

Kirk is pushing for major by 11, which may just be enough to get it as an exceptionally rare October MDR major, which hasn’t happened since I think 1878.

[abajan]

At 19 degrees N its still got plenty of warm sea surface temps and doesn't look like any shear in the area.
Is Bermuda in the cone?

No.

[Teban54]

[AnnularCane]

https://i.postimg.cc/6p8nKPwW/goes16-ir-12-L-202410021855.gif

Well hello there Kirk.

Who says boys can't wear pink? lol

[ElectricStorm]

Absolutely bombing right now, finally we get one out here that's not going to plow into land. Could see a high end Cat 4+ peak if this keeps up overnight

[WaveBreaking]

Hmm. Something tells me Kirk is ahead of schedule.

[CrazyC83]

I'd analyze it at 110 kt right now - it's probably too late for a Special Advisory, but a Tropical Cyclone Update would be useful.

[CrazyC83]

Special Advisory: 105 kt

941
WTNT32 KNHC 030035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Kirk Special Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

...KIRK RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.3N 44.3W
ABOUT 1355 MI...2180 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1150 MI...1855 KM ENE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

[WaveBreaking]

No wonder the NHC went for a special advisory. Dvorak just gets better with every new frame.

[TallyTracker]

It’s very interesting how the two MDR major hurricanes this year formed in July and October!

[CrazyC83]

I think this could easily go stronger than forecast - it has the look of a storm that could reach category 5 if shear doesn't come in.

(That said, to get a C5 without Recon, we'd need at least consensus T7.0)

[Teban54]

Kirk's official intensity went from 80 kt at 5pm EDT to 105 kt at 8pm EDT, skipping Cat 2 entirely within 3 hours.

[InfernoFlameCat]

WOW! This is my favorite kind of storm. I think at this rate we could see a cat 5! 4 rotating hot towers at once quickly wrapping around? Wow!