ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

WOW! This is my favorite kind of storm. I think at this rate we could see a cat 5! 4 rotating hot towers at once quickly wrapping around? Wow!

If it fully wraps around a warm eye, that would be T7.5 I believe.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

He's just living his best life out there I guess

[CrazyC83]

He's just living his best life out there I guess

Captain is speaking! Luckily only Nemo and Dory are in that part of the world...it's not even a major shipping corridor.

[aspen]

I think this could easily go stronger than forecast - it has the look of a storm that could reach category 5 if shear doesn't come in.

(That said, to get a C5 without Recon, we'd need at least consensus T7.0)

I don’t think shear becomes a factor until early-mid Friday at the soonest. It has all of tomorrow to continue going bonkers. Insane that we might be looking at an early October eastern MDR Cat 5.

[galaxy401]

Big jump in intensity but it was to be expected. Kirk rapidly bombing out and will farm for the Atlantic a bunch of ACE.

[Hammy]

So we have now had a major hurricane in the MDR during June and July, and October, but none in August/September

[weeniepatrol]

[weeniepatrol]

The outflow is absolutely ridiculous.

[aspen]

So we have now had a major hurricane in the MDR during June and July, and October, but none in August/September

Was gonna point that out lol. Such a weird double-peaked season.

2024 might take it a step further and have a MDR-born Cat 5 in July and October at opposite ends of the basin but none during August or September.

[Sciencerocks]

[Teban54]

Kirk is now the easternmost major hurricane to exist in the tropical Atlantic in the month of October on record.

Kirk is currently at 44.3W. Compare that with:

• The previous easternmost October MH in the tropical Atlantic was Hurricane Nine in 1893, which was officially a 100 kt major hurricane at 13.6N 49.0W on October 2.
• If you think data from pre-satellite era may be suspect (Hurricane Ten in 1878 was the only other one that came close), the record south of 20N in the modern era was already in the Caribbean. Lenny 1999 and Omar 2008 were MHs at 63.3W and 63.9W respectively, but both moved west to east.
• The previous easternmost westward-moving October MH in the satellite era that was close to the MDR were Sam 2021, which was at 24.3N 61.0W when the calendar flipped to October; and Gonzalo 2014, which became an MH at 20.8N 65.5W, north of Puerto Rico.
• If you define MDR to be strictly south of 20N, the record since 1950 belongs to Flora 1963 at 13.6N 67.3W, well within Eastern Caribbean.

How about Cat 4s? The easternmost Cat 4 in October anywhere (tropics or subtropics) was Sam 2021, which started October at 24.3N 61.0W (while actually strengthening towards its 3rd peak). NHC's special advisory forecast for Kirk has it reaching Cat 4 at 19.9N 45.1W, which will break the old record by almost 16 degrees of longitude!

And if you restrict MDR to south of 20N again, every single October and November Cat 4 there was in the Caribbean, with Lenny, Omar and Flora again being the furthest east, followed closely by Matthew. All others were in the Western Caribbean. This means NHC expects Kirk to be the first ever Cat 4 in the MDR proper (east of the Caribbean) to exist in October on record!

Edit: I hear you asking about Cat 5s. Keep in mind, there are only 6 official October-November Cat 5s on record (Cuba 1924, Cuba 1932, Hattie, Mitch, Wilma, Matthew). The easternmost of them in official records was Matthew at 71.9W. If you think Matthew's official intensity is suspect, the next in line is Cuba 1932, at 78.5W. If Kirk really becomes a Cat 5, nothing comes remotely close.

[Kazmit]

Holy crap! Last time I checked on Kirk this morning it was merely a cat 1. You're telling me it got upgraded from 90mph to 120mph in a single update? Has such a big increase in three hours ever been issued before by the NHC?

[CrazyC83]

Holy crap! Last time I checked on Kirk this morning it was merely a cat 1. You're telling me it got upgraded from 90mph to 120mph in a single update? Has such a big increase in three hours ever been issued before by the NHC?

I've seen a few storms do so out there: Igor, Ike, Lorenzo, Irma are a few I can think of.

[Hurricane2022]

ace ace ace ace ace

Hurricane Kirk Special Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122024
800 PM AST Wed Oct 02 2024

Kirk is undergoing rapid intensification this evening.
Geostationary satellite imagery has shown an eye clearing and Dvorak
estimates are rising as quickly as they are allowed. The initial
intensity is set to a possibly conservative 105 kt, closest to the
final-T number (T5.5) from TAFB. The intensity forecast has been
increased between 12 through 48 h. No changes were made to the
intensity forecast beyond 60 h, or the track and wind radii
predictions. The next forecast will be released at the normally
scheduled time (11 PM AST).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0000Z 19.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 19.9N 45.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 21.1N 46.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 22.4N 48.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 23.8N 49.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 05/0600Z 25.7N 50.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 28.5N 50.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 35.1N 47.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 42.5N 38.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Bucci/Cangialosi

[CrazyC83]

Makes me wonder, could we see a major MDR hurricane in November at this rate?

(Has there ever been anything out there in November before, of any intensity?)

[CrazyC83]

So we have now had a major hurricane in the MDR during June and July, and October, but none in August/September

Was gonna point that out lol. Such a weird double-peaked season.

2024 might take it a step further and have a MDR-born Cat 5 in July and October at opposite ends of the basin but none during August or September.

That almost has a North Indian Ocean feel in a sense. Not much was happening at all during the peak season, but the shoulder seasons are getting the activity...

[MarioProtVI]

Holy crap! Last time I checked on Kirk this morning it was merely a cat 1. You're telling me it got upgraded from 90mph to 120mph in a single update? Has such a big increase in three hours ever been issued before by the NHC?

I've seen a few storms do so out there: Igor, Ike, Lorenzo, Irma are a few I can think of.

Wilma went from 110 mph to 150 mph in one advisory 2 hours apart.

[weeniepatrol]

So we have now had a major hurricane in the MDR during June and July, and October, but none in August/September

Was gonna point that out lol. Such a weird double-peaked season.

2024 might take it a step further and have a MDR-born Cat 5 in July and October at opposite ends of the basin but none during August or September.

That almost has a North Indian Ocean feel in a sense. Not much was happening at all during the peak season, but the shoulder seasons are getting the activity...

Yeah I saw and participated in much debate on Twitter regarding potential "Indian Oceanification" of the Atlantic due to climate change. I'm not sure I believe it, but it is an interesting theory

[Teban54]

Makes me wonder, could we see a major MDR hurricane in November at this rate?

(Has there ever been anything out there in November before, of any intensity?)

There have only been 10 MHs in November on record (Jamaica 1912, Cuba 1932, #13 1934, Kate 1985, Lenny 1999, Michelle 2001, Paloma 2008, Otto 2016, Eta 2020, Iota 2020). The easternmost of them is, again, Lenny at 63.3W near the NE Caribbean islands. In second place is #13 1934, which was officially a major in the NW Atlantic east of the Bahamas (either a huge anomaly or suspect records). Other than those and Kate, every other MH was in the Western Caribbean.

Getting a November MH anywhere outside of the Caribbean would be near historic... Not to mention in the MDR.

[Category5Kaiju]

Makes me wonder, could we see a major MDR hurricane in November at this rate?

(Has there ever been anything out there in November before, of any intensity?)

No, but given the way this year is acting, I can't say I will completely discount the possibility (especially with the extremely warm tropical waters).

The big November hurricanes in recent memory (Lenny, Paloma, Eta, and Iota) all happened in the Caribbean Sea. Although, the Great 1932 Cuba Hurricane originated in the MDR and became a Category 5 in the WCAR...