ATL: LESLIE - Remnants - Discussion

[Teban54]

plenty of moisture

Imagine saying that in 2024

[cycloneye]

The records keep comming for 2024.

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1841672796109242578

[aspen]

Like I suspected, Leslie is probably going OTS through the opening Kirk has left, but annoyingly seems to follow the same track unless something in the 4-6 day range changes. HWRF shows it just a hair south of Kirk’s cold wake, while the HAFS-A/B show it going right over it. If the latter happens, Leslie’s intensity and ACE ceiling is a lot lower.

[Cachondo23]

Looks like traveling slowly and more west than forecasted. We shall see.

[cycloneye]

An eye trying to form or is a dry slot?

[WaveBreaking]

Leslie and Kirk

[cycloneye]

I will say it. No way Leslie is at 35kt now. Based on the sat images, is between 50kt and 55kt.

AL, 13, 2024100312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 306W, 35, 1005, TS

[kevin]

I will say it. No way Leslie is at 35kt now. Based on the sat images, is between 50kt and 55kt.

AL, 13, 2024100312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 306W, 35, 1005, TS

Agreed. ADT is still at 35 kt (CI 2.5), but with a raw T# of 3.8. So that intensity estimate might change in the future. AiDT is also quite low at 37 kt, but DPRINT is already up to 59 kt. Blending those results in an intensity of 45 kt. I think NHC leans more heavily on ADT in these cases, so if those also climb considerably over the next few hours I expect a significant upgrade at 5pm.

[cycloneye]

I will say it. No way Leslie is at 35kt now. Based on the sat images, is between 50kt and 55kt.

AL, 13, 2024100312, , BEST, 0, 102N, 306W, 35, 1005, TS

Agreed. ADT is still at 35 kt (CI 2.5), but with a raw T# of 3.8. So that intensity estimate might change in the future. AiDT is also quite low at 37 kt, but DPRINT is already up to 59 kt. Blending those results in an intensity of 45 kt. I think NHC leans more heavily on ADT in these cases, so if those also climb considerably over the next few hours I expect a significant upgrade at 5pm.

Dvorak:

A. 13L (LESLIE)

B. 03/1200Z

C. 10.2N

D. 30.6W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.5/2.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...5/10 BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. THE MET IS 2.0 BASED ON
A 24HR SLOW DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 2.0. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

ASCAT shows is more than 35kt.

[cycloneye]

Changed it to 40kt.

AL, 13, 2024100312, , BEST, 0, 101N, 306W, 40, 1002, TS

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

ASCAT shows is more than 35kt.

https://i.imgur.com/hGdFW98.png

But only a tiny bit more.

[TallyTracker]

The NHC is now forecasting Leslie to nearly reach major hurricane strength at the 5-day mark.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 10.1N 30.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 10.1N 31.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 10.4N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 10.8N 34.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 11.4N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 06/0000Z 12.3N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 13.3N 38.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 15.9N 41.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 18.6N 44.6W 95 KT 110 MPH

[syfr]

Like I suspected, Leslie is probably going OTS through the opening Kirk has left, but annoyingly seems to follow the same track unless something in the 4-6 day range changes. HWRF shows it just a hair south of Kirk’s cold wake, while the HAFS-A/B show it going right over it. If the latter happens, Leslie’s intensity and ACE ceiling is a lot lower.

We call this "good news"!

[Travorum]

Hello there

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks like Leslie is over performing like most storms this year, she now has an eye.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

An eye trying to form or is a dry slot?

https://i.imgur.com/1dZjwGi.gif

Guess it was an eye after all

[cycloneye]

A. 13L (LESLIE)

B. 03/1800Z

C. 10.0N

D. 31.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...7/10 BANDING YIELDS THE DT OF 3.0. THE MET AND PT ARE
2.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[cycloneye]

Up to 45kt.

AL, 13, 2024100318, , BEST, 0, 101N, 312W, 45, 1001, TS

[galaxy401]

This might actually end up being stronger then Kirk down the line. Might be the storm to that generates the most ACE.