ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

https://i.imgur.com/WX2D2nj.png

Yeah…if the NHC doesn’t do a special update, they will 100% miss peak intensity by 11pm.

BT update is in about an hour or so, it could be reflected there

[Hurricane2022]

Major hurricanes still can intensify some more after an ERC starts, e.g. Wilma '05, Chanthu '21 (2nd peak), Bolaven '23...

[zzzh]

And there is still no meso floater on Kirk. It deserves better.

[WaveBreaking]

W Ring trying to make a comeback on the latest few frames

[aspen]

W Ring trying to make a comeback on the latest few frames

https://i.imgur.com/QJEz481.gif

Perhaps making another run at a CMG ring.

If that W ring thickens up again, it’s an easy, unquestionable T7.0 Cat 5.

[Travorum]

Latest ADT fix has the center up to +19.8C, with cloud temps at -72.6 for a difference of 92.4C. Third fix with raw T# at or above 7.0, bringing the CI# to 6.7 (926.7mb/132.2kt).

[AxaltaRacing24]

Not trying to be that guy, but it's so obvious that this is a cat 5 or extremely close.

[zzzh]

Eye temp: 20.4

[Sciencerocks]

[Travorum]

6.8 CI#, eye temp +20.2

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 03 OCT 2024 Time : 234020 UTC
Lat : 21:04:11 N Lon : 47:01:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 924.3mb/134.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +20.2C Cloud Region Temp : -72.5C

[aspen]

It’s getting later so it doesn’t seem like the NHC will issue a special update, which is insane because they were willing to do it before with Kirk.

I think it will officially miss out on Cat 5 intensity because that thin side of the W ring will throw off the manual Dvorak fixes. Best-case scenario for accuracy, we get a 135 kt blend. Worst-case, manual Dvorak is given a T6.0 and we get a 120 kt blend. I’m hoping whoever’s writing the forecast will go a tad higher than the blend, recognizing how Kirk’s extremely symmetrical 20C eye is something you only see in upper-echelon storms.

[Travorum]

It’s getting later so it doesn’t seem like the NHC will issue a special update, which is insane because they were willing to do it before with Kirk.

I think it will officially miss out on Cat 5 intensity because that thin side of the W ring will throw off the manual Dvorak fixes. Best-case scenario for accuracy, we get a 135 kt blend. Worst-case, manual Dvorak is given a T6.0 and we get a 120 kt blend. I’m hoping whoever’s writing the forecast will go a tad higher than the blend, recognizing how Kirk’s extremely symmetrical 20C eye is something you only see in upper-echelon storms.

The 12z and 18z hurricane models all showed Kirk reaching its absolute peak sometime between tomorrow afternoon and saturday morning, so even if it doesn’t happen tonight there’s a chance Kirk will definitively reach C5 strength later after leveling off or even weakening tonight. In that regard it would make it even more like Lorenzo.

[WaveBreaking]

Eye temp @ 20.86°C now

[Travorum]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

[InfernoFlameCat]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

That is rather disappointing. It is clearly more intense than that.

[KirbyDude25]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

Down to 935 mb, though, only 1 mb higher than Beryl at its peak. Even if it doesn't reach Category 5, it could still have this season's lowest pressure. We'll see if it can keep its appearance up until the 03Z advisory.

[Travorum]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

Meanwhile, CI# is up to 6.9 on ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2024 Time : 001020 UTC
Lat : 21:07:47 N Lon : 47:05:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.7mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +20.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

[Travorum]

00z Subjective Dvorak estimate was 6.5, they would have had to do zero blending with ADT to get 125kts.

TXNT23 KNES 040032
TCSNTL

A. 12L (KIRK)

B. 04/0000Z

C. 21.1N

D. 47.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T6.5/6.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN B RESULTS
IN AN ENO OF 5.5 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0 GIVING A DT OF 6.5. THE MET IS 6.5
BASED ON A REGULARLY DEVELOPING TREND IN APPARENT INTENSITY OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 6.5. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[aspen]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

Called it. Man what is it with the NHC and these high-end recon-less hurricanes.

And I knew they weren’t gonna go with T7.0 for the manual fix.

[WaveBreaking]

125kt at 00z best track :/

AL, 12, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 211N, 471W, 125, 935, HU,

Meanwhile, CI# is up to 6.9 on ADT

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2024 Time : 001020 UTC
Lat : 21:07:47 N Lon : 47:05:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.9 / 921.7mb/137.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.9 7.0 7.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +20.9C Cloud Region Temp : -72.2C

Hoping that Kirk takes advantage of the environment tomorrow and maintains or even improves its look by the time it’s forecasted to peak.