ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Not making much sense to me either. 130-135kt I would get, but it’s hard to imagine a storm with an eye that warm and circular at “only” 125kt. Hope it gets another chance or gets a revision in post season analysis.

[Kingarabian]

The official Dvorak estimates clearly supported a blend of 135kts. It makes no sense to factor in some random lowball CMISS AMSU/SATCON products just to help the intensity forecast verify. Especially when they were not used in the previous advisories.

[zzzh]

Not making much sense to me either. 130-135kt I would get, but it’s hard to imagine a storm with an eye that warm and circular at “only” 125kt. Hope it gets another chance or gets a revision in post season analysis.

I'd say unlikely. Looking at Sam, they didn't change anything in TCR other than one 125 130 change for the first peak.

[zzzh]

The official Dvorak estimates clearly supported a blend of 135kts. It makes no sense to factor in some random lowball CMISS AMSU/SATCON products just to help the intensity forecast verify. Especially when they were not used in the previous advisories.

AMSU hasn't been updated since 12z. SATCON supports 136kt at 21z.

[sasha_B]

Even if they're holding off on 135-140kt w/o recon, it seems pretty clear that a blend of the satellite estimates that we have access to would support 130kt and & 927-930hPa at least. No idea why they'd hold that the minimum central pressure hasn't changed when the IR presentation has/had improved in the hours leading up to that advisory, at least as far as automated ADT can tell.

[Travorum]

The official Dvorak estimates clearly supported a blend of 135kts. It makes no sense to factor in some random lowball CMISS AMSU/SATCON products just to help the intensity forecast verify. Especially when they were not used in the previous advisories.

The only CIMSS product I can find that supports a 115kt estimate is the 2345z D-MINT at 116kts, which was not used on previous advisories (they used a blend of TAFB/SAB subjective estimates and ADT at the 5pm). Even then, the previous D-MINT analysis from 2126z supports 125kts.

[Sciencerocks]

Without recon what hurricane looks more impressive at its peak
Kirk
Helene

?

I think Kirk. I'd bet 100 bucks that recon would find a stronger storm with winds of at least 135 knts with a chance at a cat5 a few hours ago. The eye is warmer and drier with kirk, more defined and the eye wall is more impressive holding colder overall convection.

Satellite estimates don't give its dues....Kirk remines me more of Michael 2018. Not quite katrina, dorian or irma type eyewall convection but very impressive.

[Travorum]

Without recon what hurricane looks more impressive at its peak
Kirk
Helene

?

I think Kirk. I'd bet 100 bucks that recon would find a stronger storm with winds of at least 135 knts with a chance at a cat5 a few hours ago. The eye is warmer with kirk, more defined and the eye wall is more impressive.

Satellite estimates don't give its dues....Kirk remines me more of Michael 2018. Not quite katrina, dorian or irma type eyewall convection but very impressive.

Kirk no doubt to me. Helene's appearance was impressive given its rapid intensification, but Kirk's perfectly circular +21C eyewall surrounded by deep convection is impressive even amongst some other "actual" Cat 5 storms.

[Hurricane2022]

125 kts?
125 KNOTS??
Cmon mr. Cangialosi.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[MarioProtVI]

125 kts?
125 KNOTS??
Cmon mr. Cangialosi.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

I mean, not to rag on him, but he also was why 01L 2023 was deemed 0/0 in a “cold air mass” when it was clearly a near-hurricane.

[Hurricane2022]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 04 OCT 2024 Time : 034020 UTC
Lat : 21:28:11 N Lon : 47:31:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 919.1mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 23 km

Center Temp : +19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

[CrazyC83]

Let's not fight over the intensity - there is always reasoning. SAB and TAFB were both T6.5 from what I could tell.

[ElectricStorm]

The NHC being so conservative this year really is odd. Like obviously they're the best in the business but some of these estimates this year have been wild. Oh well, I'm sure they have their reasons...

Anyway IMO this was probably a Cat 5, 135kts at the absolute minimum. I mean if Lorenzo was a Cat 5 (honestly doubtful) then Kirk and Sam should be upgraded because they both had much better eyes. Will see if they increase at all at the 6z best track but if not then I would really like to see some post season upgrades.

[Hurricane2022]

I'm very doubtful they will go anything higher than 130 kts in the next advisory. I really would like to see Kirk and upgrade to 135 - 140 kts this but as I am very amateur in this matter and currently find myself in shambles because of the long and endless days of rallies and political campaigns in which I had to participate, I prefer to avoid criticizing the NHC any further. They are the leading authorities on meteorology, so in this case I think it's better for us to simply contemplate how historic Hurricanes Kirk and Leslie have been so far rather than argue about something that is unlikely to change

[Jelmergraaff]

(Ex-)Hurricane Kirk could potentially become on of the most impactful transitioned tropical cyclones. Obviously, there is still a lot of uncertainty as a potential impact will be almost a week from now.

Most models let ex-Kirk track somewhere between the northwestern tip of the Iberian Peninsula and Ireland, so that it will impact some areas in Western Europe seems likely.

Now, intensity-wise the spread is even larger, with solutions varying from only a weak remnant depression, to a very intense extra-tropical cyclone with pressures in the 950s. A few model runs even shows wind gusts in excess of 85-90 mph, which is rare, even for coastal areas of The Netherlands for example.

That being said, I was wondering how much the peak intensity of Kirk now in it's tropical phase could impact the strength of it as a post-tropical cyclone. Obviously, the water temperatures around western Europe wouldn't support any tropical characteristics anymore, but is it fair to say that a stronger Kirk now, increases the chances of a stronger extra-tropical Kirk in western Europe?

[aspen]

And they kept this obvious Cat 5 at 125 kt for 06z. Baffling.

Congrats Gilma, you’ve been overthrown as the worst lowball of the decade.

[weeniepatrol]

Very strange

[kevin]

Kirk might be the most underestimated hurricane in recent Atlantic history. I looked into the archive and the only recent hurricanes with a CI of 7.0 or more than weren't assessed as a cat 5 were Eta (7.3) and Iota (7.0). However, these did have a peak intensity of 130 kt and 135 kt, respectively. Not only does Kirk join this list with its CI of 7.0, its intensity was put at an even lower value of 125 kt. If NHC wants to go against the ADT intensity that's fine if it's for understandable reasons, but they don't even mention the undisputable T7.0 that Kirk clearly had overnight. A 135 kt intensity would've probably been just as frustrating since then we'd be discussing if Kirk was really 135 kt or 140 kt , but 125 kt just doesn't make sense.

[kevin]

Meanwhile it looks like Kirk has stabilized in the last few hours. Raw T# is back up to 6.3 after a dip to 6.0 two hours ago. The current CI of 6.7 supports an intensity of 132 kt. I'm very curious what NHC will do at the next advisory, because now even SATCON supports 136 kt. Here's an overview of the current intensity estimates:

ADT = 925 mb / 132 kt (CI 6.7)
AiDT = 127 kt
DPRINT = 934 mb / 129 kt
DMINT = 927 mb / 134 kt
SATCON = 929 mb / 136 kt

A blend of all these estimates gives a current intensity of 929 mb / 132 kt.

[aspen]

EWRC likely starting soon. The eye is looking a little ragged/contracted on recent frames.

I’m guessing they will go with 120 kt at 11am to account for the weakening, even though ADT and SATCON have supported 130+ kt.