ATL: KIRK - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane2022]

Kirk might be the most underestimated hurricane in recent Atlantic history. I looked into the archive and the only recent hurricanes with a CI of 7.0 or more than weren't assessed as a cat 5 were Eta (7.3) and Iota (7.0). However, these did have a peak intensity of 130 kt and 135 kt, respectively. Not only does Kirk join this list with its CI of 7.0, its intensity was put at an even lower value of 125 kt. If NHC wants to go against the ADT intensity that's fine if it's for understandable reasons, but they don't even mention the undisputable T7.0 that Kirk clearly had overnight. A 135 kt intensity would've probably been just as frustrating since then we'd be discussing if Kirk was really 135 kt or 140 kt , but 125 kt just doesn't make sense.

And I think it's unlikely they will do any significant upgrade in the TCR. Since they barely did anything with Jova, Felicia etc, i'm sure that Kirk will not be different. But atleast a 130 kt upgrade still likely to me IMO. We're back to the 80s folks!!

[aspen]

Kirk might be the most underestimated hurricane in recent Atlantic history. I looked into the archive and the only recent hurricanes with a CI of 7.0 or more than weren't assessed as a cat 5 were Eta (7.3) and Iota (7.0). However, these did have a peak intensity of 130 kt and 135 kt, respectively. Not only does Kirk join this list with its CI of 7.0, its intensity was put at an even lower value of 125 kt. If NHC wants to go against the ADT intensity that's fine if it's for understandable reasons, but they don't even mention the undisputable T7.0 that Kirk clearly had overnight. A 135 kt intensity would've probably been just as frustrating since then we'd be discussing if Kirk was really 135 kt or 140 kt , but 125 kt just doesn't make sense.

And I think it's unlikely they will do any significant upgrade in the TCR. Since they barely did anything with Jova, Felicia etc, i'm sure that Kirk will not be different. But atleast a 130 kt upgrade still likely to me IMO.

I think Kirk has a better chance because as pointed out on the last page, numerous satellite estimates support 130-140 kt. The underestimated EPac storms (except Gilma) didn’t have much higher estimates despite looking like T6.5+. However, the NHC really doesn’t like doing massive upgrades, so yeah they could very well just do nothing with Kirk despite mountains of evidence it was at least an upper-end 4.

IMO that perfectly symmetrical 21C eye with a thick W-ring donut is enough evidence for a Cat 5. Hard to get something better than that, and it was better than storms that actually got a Cat 5 upgrade (Matthew, Lorenzo, looking at you).

Honestly baffling to see such JTWC and IMB levels of lowballing from the NHC.

[kevin]

Hurricane Kirk in the daylight.

[kevin]

Interesting developments with Kirk in the last few hours. The northern side of the Wring almost completely collapsed and drier air is trying to enter the storm on the western side. Furthermore, some stronger outer bands are a high risk for an EWRC. However, Kirk has also been in this state for 3 hours and no EWRC seems to have started yet. Instead, colder cloudtops are trying to expand west again in the last hour to prevent the EWRC. I don't know if it will be enough and I highly doubt that Kirk can become as strong again as 12 hours ago, but it's an interesting battle.

[WaveBreaking]

Clear moat on visible

[Kazmit]

Hurricane Kirk in the daylight.

https://i.imgur.com/LyQ1mww.jpeg

Looks like Beryl at its peak.

[aspen]

12z BT: 120 kt/938 mbar. Called it. 10-15 kt below ADT/SATCON.

Welcome back Bualoi ‘19.

[Travorum]

SSMIS caught Kirk on passes two hours apart, you can see the outer eyewall building up over time:

[Woofde]

Kirk might be the most underestimated hurricane in recent Atlantic history. I looked into the archive and the only recent hurricanes with a CI of 7.0 or more than weren't assessed as a cat 5 were Eta (7.3) and Iota (7.0). However, these did have a peak intensity of 130 kt and 135 kt, respectively. Not only does Kirk join this list with its CI of 7.0, its intensity was put at an even lower value of 125 kt. If NHC wants to go against the ADT intensity that's fine if it's for understandable reasons, but they don't even mention the undisputable T7.0 that Kirk clearly had overnight. A 135 kt intensity would've probably been just as frustrating since then we'd be discussing if Kirk was really 135 kt or 140 kt , but 125 kt just doesn't make sense.

To further your point, Eta and Iota were both November storms, when satellite estimates start to get a little wonky from crazy cold cloud tops. That's a lot less likely of a bias in Early October.

[Sciencerocks]

[AJC3]

Gang,

You've all made your salient points about the operational intensity assigned by NHC being too low. The last few pages of this thread have become an excercise in beating this point to death. As several of you have already mentioned, there will be a post season re-assessment of Kirk's strength and intensity over its lifetime, including its peak. I'm asking you not to belabor this point any longer.

[cheezyWXguy]

EWRC seems to moving along well, might be a chance at a rebound later today or tonight before the environment turns less favorable

[kevin]

It looks like Kirk's EWRC is already nearing completion about 2 hours after it finally started (following a long period of EWRC teasing). Raw T# have already rebounded from 5.8 to 6.2. It will take some work to restore Kirk's cold CDO which is almost completely destroyed, but the eye is already becoming much less ragged in recent frames. I still think that the secondary 130 - 140 kt peak shown by the HAFS models is overdoing it, but I can imagine another 125 kt peak overnight.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Kirk is probably not done, like Lorenzo it may have a second peak.

[Sciencerocks]

This storm was quite impressive and probably ranks up their with Hurricane Beryl on every metric. This just goes to show the limitations of satellite estimates but it is what it is. I wish a recon drone could have made it into the storm last night as I've seen them get to 40-45 west before more then once.

I'd bet it probably would have found a 135-145 knt storm at its peak.

You'd think with the military drones that are developed today that we'd have dozens of them being used by the noaa. But sadly, funding is a problem. IT would also be nice if there was 50 times as many buoys over the mdr and central Atlantic but one can dream.

[Travorum]

SAR pass from 09z today. It is roughly in line with ADT estimates at that time (CI#6.7/132kt).

Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-04 09:09:48 UTC
Storm Name: AL122024 / KIRK
Storm ID: AL12
Storm Center Longitude: -48.325
Storm Center Latitude: 22.188
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 38.153
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 128.53
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 123.21
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 120.23
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 126.78
RMax (nmi): 8.00 - 11.00

[WaveBreaking]

From the GOES-19 satellite:

[WaveBreaking]

[aspen]

SAR pass from 09z today. It is roughly in line with ADT estimates at that time (CI#6.7/132kt).

https://i.imgur.com/xySfBuC.png

Platform: RCM-1
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-04 09:09:48 UTC
Storm Name: AL122024 / KIRK
Storm ID: AL12
Storm Center Longitude: -48.325
Storm Center Latitude: 22.188
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 38.153
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 128.53
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 123.21
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 120.23
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 126.78
RMax (nmi): 8.00 - 11.00

I think that’s an easy case for 130 kt at 9z, so maybe 135 kt for 6z and 125 kt for 12z. 0z was 140 kt if they were to give weight to ADT and re-do a manual Dvorak fix (dunno why the manual fixes have been at least T0.5 low).

[cycloneye]

Is 115kt at 18z.

AL, 12, 2024100418, , BEST, 0, 233N, 491W, 115, 943, HU