Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[blp]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1842151685088514226

[Steve]

:D

I can just about guarantee that the very next run will be 100% different. I bet it will show no discernible vorticity.

I’m going to disagree. Models have called for a hook east system for a week. 00z’s will show some action. But I did laugh before posting so all good.

glad you got a laugh! But as I predicted the very next gfs run just showing a blob.

Haha. 6z as well. All the other globals worth looking at trended weaker at 00z but still have a 990's TS type system coming in farther south than they had been. GFS doesn't resolve the CAG and ejects/emits out a couple of pulses of energy. It's the odd one out for now.

[wzrgirl1]

I know that. I live in the area. But when I look at what those states north of us are dealing with, I can handle a little flooding. My area doesn't flood terribly, but we had a time of it with Ian. First the wind, and then the flooding.

Just saying, I'll handle the flood rather than the wind if given a choice,

Just renewed my flood insurance policy even though I am not in a flood zone. Just can't take the chance here in southwest Broward County.

Good move by you! I used to live in Pembroke Shores on a large lake and I wouldn't have lived there without Flood insurance!

My first home was in Pembroke Shores! It was the townhomes when you first drive into the complex on the right. I loved living there it just became too small for my household. Now I am in Silver Lakes.

[toad strangler]

A snip from Michael Lowry’s newsletter this morning…

Earlier in the week, models were honing in on the eastern piece of this broader Central American Gyre from the western Caribbean that’s since pivoted over the south-central Gulf.

In recent days, however, the models have latched on to the remnants of Tropical Depression 11 from the eastern Pacific instead that’s crossing southern Mexico and forecast to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It’s this piece of spin farther southwest that’s now forecast to be the dominant focus of any tropical development next week.

[skillz305]

Where is wxman57 when we need him? He was bearish on this a couple days ago. Need his updated insight. In his expert opinion of course. Central Florida here.

[psyclone]

Rain bomb has always been the primary hazard regardless of development and if anything that risk seems to be increasing over the southern half of the peninsula. WPC now shows a large area of 10"+ with 15"+ pixels now showing over the eastern Gulf. Someone is likely to bag a double digit rain event...and many of these areas are already wet so at a minimum a flood threat is likely to evolve for someone.

[jlauderdal]

Where is wxman57 when we need him? He was bearish on this a couple days ago. Need his updated insight. In his expert opinion of course. Central Florida here.

Prepare for 10+ inches of rain and be aware you could see up to a 2 next week, its as simple as that at this point. The setup is as clear as day as far as precip goes, who gets the big totals can't be predicted this far out but it will be widespread. I have 2.31 in the bucket since midnight and this has nothing to do with what's coming as this came in on easterly flow, the atmosphere starts its flip tomorrow as the steering flow turns. The pre-event was not helpful to Atlanta up to western nc; these things matter in the longer term. WC of Florida is still saturated from Helene and Tampa had 5+ yesterday.

[Blown Away]

00z ECENS... Many canes in the ensemble bunch!

[Weathertracker96]

ICON is trending stronger so far. We’ll see how the rest of run plays out

[SFLcane]

ICON is trending stronger so far. We’ll see how the rest of run plays out

[redingtonbeach]

Hurricane models tend to move west in the days approaching landfall. In this case, that would be a more northerly path for the west coast of Florida if that holds true. So that would put landfall somewhere north of Tampa Bay (Crystal River?) which could dump copious amounts of water over an already saturated Central Florida region. Prayers that this storm remains weak.

[SFLcane]

Hurricane models tend to move west in the days approaching landfall. In this case, that would be a more northerly path for the west coast of Florida if that holds true. So that would put landfall somewhere north of Tampa Bay (Crystal River?) which could dump copious amounts of water over an already saturated Central Florida region. Prayers that this storm remains weak.

Its not going north as far north as tampa (in my opinion) steering is such anything that anything forms will be shunted almost in a ENE fashion. Lets hope nothing strong developes

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z Icon depicts a storm with a larger than normal wind field, which is typical for late season storms in this area

[SFLcane]

12z GFS coming in stronger..

[cycloneye]

GFS with the strongest run yet.

[cycloneye]

982 mbs Tampa.

[SFLcane]

Holy 12z model suite...

[Emmett_Brown]

12Z CMC is very different, develops it but keeps it near the N coast of the Yucatan by next Wed

[Emmett_Brown]

This disturbance seems invest worthy, especially considering some models are showing landfall as early as Tues/Wed

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The GFS has absolutely no clue, the amount of inconsistency at this close of a range is absurd.