ATL: LESLIE - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

I'd say 55 knts

[TallyTracker]

I’d call that structure a proto-eye. Based on the microwave imagery the northern semicircle is a partial core forming. There does appear to be a little dry air disruption. Nothing that can’t be overcome easily. I’d agree with those saying 55 kts. I don’t think most satellite estimates are taking the great structure into account.

[Travorum]

Leslie is now explicitly forecast to become a major hurricane:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 10.1N 31.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 10.2N 32.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 10.5N 33.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 10.9N 35.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 11.7N 36.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 06/0600Z 12.6N 37.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 13.7N 39.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 16.3N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 19.3N 45.6W 100 KT 115 MPH

NHC notes the bullish hurricane models in the discussion, they forecast steady strengthening eventually plateauing due to Kirk's cold wake (emphasis mine).

Leslie has been slowly strengthening today. Steady strengthening is
expected over the next 36-48 hr as the shear from Hurricane Kirk
lessen, and Leslie moves through a more favorable atmospheric and
oceanic environment. The spread in model intensity guidance has
increased this afternoon, and the hurricane models have suggested
the potential for rapid strengthening. The official NHC intensity
forecast lies near the simple consensus aids, although it still
lies below some of the regional hurricane models and HCCA. The
intensity forecast will plateau by the end of the forecast period
as Leslie moves into the cold wake of Kirk.

[zzzh]

Real eyewall is forming

[cycloneye]

Sorry, but this is not at 45kts. An eyewall is forming.

AL, 13, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 99N, 317W, 45, 1001, TS

[zzzh]

45kt and the 125kt Kirk

[TallyTracker]

Sorry, but this is not at 45kts. An eyewall is forming.

AL, 13, 2024100400, , BEST, 0, 99N, 317W, 45, 1001, TS

https://i.imgur.com/ndY9JTZ.gif

Leslie is also south of 10N now. Very odd track for October.

[Travorum]

Leslie is well on it's way, microwave from 3 hours ago:

[zzzh]

I see rotating hot towers. Don't know why they say "little change in appearance" in the discussion.

There has been little change in Leslie's appearance this evening.
Based on the CIMSS-UW satellite wind analyses, the storm is still
being sheared by the outflow from Hurricane Kirk. Convection
continues to pulse near the center with a curved band wrapping
around the southern portion of the circulation.

[CrazyC83]

I'd go with 55 kt given the microwave analysis. Sure, it doesn't look great on satellite, but beneath it looks solid.

[zzzh]

ASCAT-C at 23:30z shows 45kt, 55kt is a reasonable estimate.

[lilbump3000]

https://www.youtube.com/@w.o.f.weathero ... irmation=1

[cycloneye]

AL, 13, 2024100412, , BEST, 0, 99N, 327W, 55, 996, TS

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/KeviShader/status/1842190168457199906

[Travorum]

Impressive spiral from Leslie this morning on microwave:

[cycloneye]

[PDKlikatino]

Seems about time for the age-old question: is that a dry slot or is the eye making an appearance?

[cycloneye]

Almost a hurricane.

AL, 13, 2024100418, , BEST, 0, 102N, 333W, 60, 993, TS

[Sciencerocks]

[al78]

Some very nice images of the structure posted on here. There is evidently a fair bit of uncertainty in the future intensity given the NHC has gone from cat 3 to cat 1 peak intensity over the last day.