ATL: LESLIE - Remnants - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

Some very nice images of the structure posted on here. There is evidently a fair bit of uncertainty in the future intensity given the NHC has gone from cat 3 to cat 1 peak intensity over the last day.

The track will be the big key - it's forecast to go right over the wake of Kirk, meaning it will have marginal to cool SST's. That said, if it goes farther west, it can avoid that wake and strengthen a lot more.

[zzzh]

Not a hurricane?

[aspen]

Some very nice images of the structure posted on here. There is evidently a fair bit of uncertainty in the future intensity given the NHC has gone from cat 3 to cat 1 peak intensity over the last day.

The track will be the big key - it's forecast to go right over the wake of Kirk, meaning it will have marginal to cool SST's. That said, if it goes farther west, it can avoid that wake and strengthen a lot more.

Models have trended towards the exact same track as Kirk — which is insane, the odds of two consecutive storms with identical paths is probably very low — which results in it getting obliterated by upwelling. Even the Euro, which had several sub-900mb ensemble members a few days ago, kills it.

[cycloneye]

We have hurricane Leslie.

AL, 13, 2024100500, , BEST, 0, 103N, 339W, 65, 989, HU

[storminabox]

Really hope Leslie can avoid Kirks cold wake so we can get two MDR major hurricanes.

[zzzh]

This is probably 70-80kt now.

[zzzh]

Classic shrimp. If the models are overestimating shear due to lack of observations in the far east Atlantic, this could explode at any time.

[Sciencerocks]

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Leslie seems to be a pretty miniscule system. She could be vulnerable to wild swings in intensity but it looks like she may at least temporarily overperform

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/philklotzbach/status/1842395300004049194

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 13, 2024100512, , BEST, 0, 109N, 350W, 70, 985, HU

[cycloneye]

AL, 13, 2024100518, , BEST, 0, 114N, 357W, 70, 985, HU

[Sciencerocks]

[Sciencerocks]

[hipshot]

https://i.imgur.com/kF5Pt9q.gif

When is Leslie supposed to make the north turn to out to sea?

[Sciencerocks]

https://i.imgur.com/kF5Pt9q.gif

When is Leslie supposed to make the north turn to out to sea?

Based on the models it should move northwestward for the next 3-4 days around the southwest quad of the azores. Afterward a longwave trough is expected to to turn it more northward...
[img]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_23.png[/img]
[img]
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_25.png[/img]

[Teban54]

[weeniepatrol]

Right. While everyone is distracted Leslie looks to be bombing out



Based off the way this year has gone nhc will say 75 kt at 5am then be forced to issue a special advisory afterwards

[weeniepatrol]

Yea, called it.

But recently,
geostationary satellite images indicate an eye feature is trying to
emerge, with a warm spot in infrared imagery surrounded by a ring of
deep, cold convection. Based on these satellite trends, the initial
intensity is raised to 75 kt, in best agreement with T4.5 Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Some near-term intensity fluctuations are possible today, depending
on whether Leslie is able to fully clear out an eye this morning.

INIT 06/0900Z 12.9N 37.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 13.7N 38.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 14.9N 39.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 16.2N 41.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 17.5N 43.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 18.9N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 20.2N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 22.2N 49.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 24.0N 50.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

Right.. best looking 75 kt system I've ever seen. I'll say that much