ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[chaser1]

I had an Uncle Milton, he was a nice guy…

Same here. Mine was "Uncle Milty" lol!

[CFLHurricane]

Seeing these intensities slowly creep up living in central florida

Uncle Milton is shaping up to be a well ventilated storm over boiling hot waters, so time would be his main enemy. Will the Tampa shield finally be defeated? Will he be the first direct hurricane strike on the Space Coast since David in 1979? And will Mickey Mouse close his Kingdom?

Tune in to Storm2k- same bat time, same bat channel!

[Hurricane Mike]

11pm Video Update on our system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRsI4L-mcPI

[fci]

11pm Video Update on our system
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WRsI4L-mcPI

Excellent video, thank you.

[Hurricaneman]

There seems to be a broad area of low pressure under the convection, this might develop before recon gets there on sunday

[eastcoastFL]

Been a lot of uncertainty over the past week over what would come from this. But now it’s starting to look a bit more like a tropical system will be born.

[NDG]

Circulation if becoming better defined tonight, could be a TD as early as tomorrow morning, if trends continue, IMO.

 https://x.com/cjfieldswx/status/1842416943321498052

[eastcoastFL]

That convection has been persistent for some time now. This might be it already.





North of this area shear is out of control, but right here and due east it’s almost non existent right now.

[grapealcoholic]

Curved band setting up east of the convection

[SFLcane]

That convection has been persistent for some time now. This might be it already.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/34983105.gif?0.20864913849250144



North of this area shear is out of control, but right here and due east it’s almost non existent right now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

That’s also why the gfs 00z is nonsense

[eastcoastFL]

That convection has been persistent for some time now. This might be it already.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/34983105.gif?0.20864913849250144



North of this area shear is out of control, but right here and due east it’s almost non existent right now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

That’s also why the gfs 00z is nonsense

That just looked crazy, I guess we will see what future runs have in store. It’s a weird set up so I’m sure more changes are in store.

[Hurricaneman]

That convection has been persistent for some time now. This might be it already.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/34983105.gif?0.20864913849250144



North of this area shear is out of control, but right here and due east it’s almost non existent right now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

That’s also why the gfs 00z is nonsense

Not really nonsense since several Euro ensembles show the same but looking at satellite this is organizing at a faster clip than thought would happen so we may have a stronger system for Florida than anyone anticipated and as always things can change but I believe we could get anything from a strong tropical storm to cat 4 hurricane but most likely a strong tropical storm as of now

[SFLcane]

That convection has been persistent for some time now. This might be it already.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/sessions/34983105.gif?0.20864913849250144



North of this area shear is out of control, but right here and due east it’s almost non existent right now.

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

That’s also why the gfs 00z is nonsense

Not really nonsense since several Euro ensembles show the same but looking at satellite this is organizing at a faster clip than thought would happen so we may have a stronger system for Florida than anyone anticipated and as always things can change but I believe we could get anything from a strong tropical storm to cat 4 hurricane but most likely a strong tropical storm as of now

Euro ensembles could be over amped right now I’d go with something in the middle just not a major in 2 days lol. Conditions north look pretty hostile to say the least

[MarioProtVI]

That’s also why the gfs 00z is nonsense

Not really nonsense since several Euro ensembles show the same but looking at satellite this is organizing at a faster clip than thought would happen so we may have a stronger system for Florida than anyone anticipated and as always things can change but I believe we could get anything from a strong tropical storm to cat 4 hurricane but most likely a strong tropical storm as of now

Euro ensembles could be over amped right now I’d go with something in the middle just not a major in 2 days lol. Conditions north look pretty hostile to say the least

Never underestimate jet interactions.

[mantis83]

Seeing these intensities slowly creep up living in central florida

Uncle Milton is shaping up to be a well ventilated storm over boiling hot waters, so time would be his main enemy. Will the Tampa shield finally be defeated? Will he be the first direct hurricane strike on the Space Coast since David in 1979? And will Mickey Mouse close his Kingdom?

Tune in to Storm2k- same bat time, same bat channel!

Would be something if this system does take down the "Tampa Shield," like you would've thought that a system coming from the Caribbean or the Florida Straits would be the one to do that but instead, a system originating from the Bay of Campeche and traveling basically due east ends up being the one.

Tampa shield not as strong as the south florida shield

[SFLcane]

Not really nonsense since several Euro ensembles show the same but looking at satellite this is organizing at a faster clip than thought would happen so we may have a stronger system for Florida than anyone anticipated and as always things can change but I believe we could get anything from a strong tropical storm to cat 4 hurricane but most likely a strong tropical storm as of now

Euro ensembles could be over amped right now I’d go with something in the middle just not a major in 2 days lol. Conditions north look pretty hostile to say the least

Never underestimate jet interactions.

I hear ya but gfs has been flip flopping last 2-3 days form a hurricane to nothing I would certainly not worry to much what it’s currently showing .

[Flwxguy86]

The uncomfortable thing for me and I am sure others in the Tampa area is, If the models keep trending stronger, That is A LOT of people to evacuate, warn and get out of the way in probably something like 3 days out of an area that is already still dealing with issue's, and it's not like you can just go north a little bit because there dealing with worse effects from Helene than this area, and if you go south, you run the risk of the storm instead making landfall there. Where exactly are all these people gonna go on 3 days notice? Sounds like a recipe for a disaster.

[CFLHurricane]

The uncomfortable thing for me and I am sure others in the Tampa area is, If the models keep trending stronger, That is A LOT of people to evacuate, warn and get out of the way in probably something like 3 days out of an area that is already still dealing with issue's, and it's not like you can just go north a little bit because there dealing with worse effects from Helene than this area, and if you go south, you run the risk of the storm instead making landfall there. Where exactly are all these people gonna go on 3 days notice? Sounds like a recipe for a disaster.

Orlando is far enough inland to be a suitable refuge for evacuees. There’s plenty of hotels and hospitals with backup power and it’s just up I-4. Plus, FPL has done such a phenomenal job insulating the grid that I wouldn’t be too worried about CAT2 winds causing a sustained outage there.

[Flwxguy86]

The uncomfortable thing for me and I am sure others in the Tampa area is, If the models keep trending stronger, That is A LOT of people to evacuate, warn and get out of the way in probably something like 3 days out of an area that is already still dealing with issue's, and it's not like you can just go north a little bit because there dealing with worse effects from Helene than this area, and if you go south, you run the risk of the storm instead making landfall there. Where exactly are all these people gonna go on 3 days notice? Sounds like a recipe for a disaster.

Orlando is far enough inland to be a suitable refuge for evacuees. There’s plenty of hotels and hospitals with backup power and it’s just up I-4. Plus, FPL has done such a phenomenal job insulating the grid that I wouldn’t be too worried about CAT2 winds causing a sustained outage there.

That seems ok, The issue I'd see is back in 2004(hurricane Charlie) everyone left for Orlando and even though it didn't hit Tampa directly, They had winds well over 100mph in Orlando, So i could see a lot of people being unsure about heading to Orlando if this plays out the way the GFS is currently showing.

[Fancy1002]

Euro ensembles could be over amped right now I’d go with something in the middle just not a major in 2 days lol. Conditions north look pretty hostile to say the least

Never underestimate jet interactions.

I hear ya but gfs has been flip flopping last 2-3 days form a hurricane to nothing I would certainly not worry to much what it’s currently showing .

How much do you wanna bet that the first or second set of intensity models send a category four hurricane into Tampa.