AxaltaRacing24 wrote:NFLnut wrote:SFLcane wrote:Don’t think your getting a major in 2-3 days or whatever the gfs is showing there. That looks silly.
Agree!
While not impossible, I don't see an almost-Cat4 hitting Tampa in 96-ish/108 hours! NHC isn't even hinting at a Hurricane and we are within their famous 5 day cone. I think the GFS is smoking crack with these runs.
In an era where RI is becoming more and more common, no point in just ruling these scenarios out before the storm even forms. We even have ensembles backing this up as well. Runs like that one are a reminder to prepare for the worst but hope for the best. Helene was a lesson, use it.
Intensity is the most difficult parameter to forecast, especially when there isn't even a consolidated center to track currently. Let's look at Helene as an example, here is the absolute error for intensity of the deterministic models:
That's an average error of ~40 knots at 72 hours. This is where our hurricane models come into play, as they generally do a much better job at intensity (but have higher errors in track):
While better, we still had an absolute error average of ~25 knots for all of the hurricane models at 72 hours.
. Remember the GFS was the model showing Helene being strong before other models picked up on that:
