ATL: MILTON - Models

[Fancy1002]

HMON weakens approaching landfall just north of ClearWater but still is a strong cane at 941 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/jGo5Aac.png

Very bad angle for Tampa, and for us in the villages

[ronjon]

Amazing how quickly forecasts on intensity can change when just a few days ago wxman57 was doubting this system would be more than a frontal low. GFS and now the hurricane models (all that performed well on intensity with Helene) now pointing toward another major hurricane striking the west coast of Florida. This just makes me sick to my stomach here on the western side of the state.

[xironman]

HMON weakens approaching landfall just north of ClearWater but still is a strong cane at 941 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/jGo5Aac.png

The damage has already been done, it is a big strong cane pushing water across the gulf. Remind you of any storm?

[Ubuntwo]

6z Euro, a touch south and stronger vs. the 0z but really almost identical.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

First HWRF run... what in the world.

[ronjon]

HWRF at 940 mb with eastern eyewall impacting Pinellas County at 120 hrs.

HAF-A into Pasco County at 960 mb at 105 hrs.

[kevin]

HWRF at 940 mb with eastern eyewall impacting Pinellas County at 120 hrs.

let's hope it just remains a crazy hurricane model run. We may have cursed this season by calling it a bust a month ago.

[xironman]

First HWRF run... what in the world.

HWRF, HMON, HFSA, HFSB are all within 50 miles and 25 mb of each other. Of course they are all GFS based.

Edit: oops, 35mb thee HFSB is an outlier.

[REDHurricane]

Amazing how quickly forecasts on intensity can change when just a few days ago wxman57 was doubting this system would be more than a frontal low. GFS and now the hurricane models (all that performed well on intensity with Helene) now pointing toward another major hurricane striking the west coast of Florida. This just makes me sick to my stomach here on the western side of the state.

Just goes to show that hope is not an effective forecasting tool... as much as we all wished Helene was only going to make landfall at 75kts and we all hope 92L won't develop into anything worse than a rainmaker, I think downplaying any potential Gulf system before it even gets started is a dangerous game to be playing when the entire Gulf is 1-2ºC above average in a strengthening La Niña pattern. I respect the knowledge of all the pro mets on here (who have undoubtedly forgotten more about weather than I've ever learned), but that doesn't mean that any single expert's predictions should be taken as gospel since we are all prone to our own biases and have our own blind spots.

[Blown Away]

First HWRF run... what in the world.

HWRF, HMON, HFSA, HFSB are all within 50 miles and 25 mb of each other. Of course they are all GFS based.

Edit: oops, 35mb thee HFSB is an outlier.

Euro, Ukmet, Icon are Cape Coral and S. I guess the system is moving NE so the GFS bias would be left and Euro would be right. To me Ft Myers to Sarasota is the average?

[ronjon]

Amazing how quickly forecasts on intensity can change when just a few days ago wxman57 was doubting this system would be more than a frontal low. GFS and now the hurricane models (all that performed well on intensity with Helene) now pointing toward another major hurricane striking the west coast of Florida. This just makes me sick to my stomach here on the western side of the state.

Just goes to show that hope is not an effective forecasting tool... as much as we all wished Helene was only going to make landfall at 75kts and we all hope 92L won't develop into anything worse than a rainmaker, I think downplaying any potential Gulf system before it even gets started is a dangerous game to be playing when the entire Gulf is 1-2ºC above average in a strengthening La Niña pattern. I respect the knowledge of all the pro mets on here (who have undoubtedly forgotten more about weather than I've ever learned), but that doesn't mean that any single expert's predictions should be taken as gospel since we are all prone to our own biases and have our own blind spots.

I think to be fair here to wxman57 and the other PROS, all the modeling on the synoptic pattern a few days ago was pointing to high shear and dry air severely impacting the system in the GOM and thus keeping it weak. A rain maker only was the consistent theme.

[eastcoastFL]

Amazing how quickly forecasts on intensity can change when just a few days ago wxman57 was doubting this system would be more than a frontal low. GFS and now the hurricane models (all that performed well on intensity with Helene) now pointing toward another major hurricane striking the west coast of Florida. This just makes me sick to my stomach here on the western side of the state.

Just goes to show that hope is not an effective forecasting tool... as much as we all wished Helene was only going to make landfall at 75kts and we all hope 92L won't develop into anything worse than a rainmaker, I think downplaying any potential Gulf system before it even gets started is a dangerous game to be playing when the entire Gulf is 1-2ºC above average in a strengthening La Niña pattern. I respect the knowledge of all the pro mets on here (who have undoubtedly forgotten more about weather than I've ever learned), but that doesn't mean that any single expert's predictions should be taken as gospel since we are all prone to our own biases and have our own blind spots.

I think to be fair here to wxman57 and the other PROS, all the modeling on the synoptic pattern a few days ago was pointing to high shear and dry air severely impacting the system in the GOM and thus keeping it weak. A rain maker only was the consistent theme.

It’s all pretty much guess work until you actually have a system to work with. Best you can do at that point is look at the current conditions. The NHC even dropped the odds for development for a while. It’s going to be a long week of model runs.

[ronjon]

First HWRF run... what in the world.

HWRF, HMON, HFSA, HFSB are all within 50 miles and 25 mb of each other. Of course they are all GFS based.

Edit: oops, 35mb thee HFSB is an outlier.

Euro, Ukmet, Icon are Cape Coral and S. I guess the system is moving NE so the GFS bias would be left and Euro would be right. To me Ft Myers to Sarasota is the average?

Perhaps...but it appears to me the predicted stronger storms are favoring a more NE track so intensity might play a role on landfall predictions. Can't discount the ICON and Euro though as they did well with track of Helene.

[chris_fit]

06z EPS continue to be clustered around Tampa. Some very strong members.

[Blown Away]

06z EPS continue to be clustered around Tampa. Some very strong members.

Can you post the graphic?

[chris_fit]

06z EPS continue to be clustered around Tampa. Some very strong members.

Can you post the graphic?

On my phone.... Can't

[kevin]

06z, Oct 5, hurricane model blend, 92L

--- Model peak intensity ---
HWRF = 922mb/129kt
HMON = 928mb/130kt
HAFS-A = 926mb/120kt
HAFS-B = 968mb/89kt

--- Hurricane model blend ---

Like with Kirk I'm doing another hurricane blend. I'll try to make these when I'm available. All hurricane models show 92L reaching hurricane intensity before landfall in Florida. The blend is strongly brought down by a much weaker HAFS-B run which struggles to consolidate 92L and landfalls it as 'only' a category 2 hurricane. A blend of HWRF/HMON/HAFS-A would call for a 930mb/118kt category 4 peak and a MH landfall. However, I would recommend not throwing out the HAFS-B run since it illustrates the large uncertainty regarding 92L. Independent of the intensity the hurricane models forecast that 92L will make landfall as a dangerous hurricane in Florida within 5 days. The models also still disagree about the landfall time with HWRF/HMON showing landfall at +120 and HAFS-A/B already showing a landfall at +96/+102 hrs. Due to this no landfall timestamp is shown in the blend overview for now. In the short-term models are showing 92L reaching TS strength today. However, a lack of organization of the system despite its high winds might prevent the NHC from pulling the trigger on future Milton so soon.

Blend
PEAK: 940 mb @ 90 hrs | 108 kt @ 90 hrs
ACE (0 - 126 hrs) = 14.7
hr / pressure (mb) / wind (kt)
00 / 1005 / 33
06 / 1000 / 44 - TS
12 / 1001 / 38
18 / 999 / 42
24 / 994 / 51
30 / 991 / 51
36 / 988 / 55
42 / 981 / 67 - C1
48 / 976 / 77
54 / 969 / 76
60 / 967 / 77
66 / 955 / 95 - C2
72 / 948 / 104 - C3
78 / 943 / 104
84 / 941 / 103
90 / 940 / 108
96 / 942 / 102
102 / 946 / 100
108 / 951 / 91
114 / 957 / 90
120 / 961 / 89
126 / 971 / 72

--- Previous blend analyses ---

None yet

[cycloneye]

Wow.

[Stormlover70]

Why look at the worse case models? They are outliers. We don't need another hit in this area. Sorry just can't take anything else......

[tolakram]

The hurricane models don't start with a well defined low, so take these with a grain of salt.





939MB before weakening prior to landfall


Consistently weaker throughout the run