ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[eastcoastFL]

Interestingly enough SE Florida will once again likely be dodging an eye wall impact just to the north. Tampa being only 192 miles away doesn’t help considering forecasting landfall accuracy.

Tampa will need to prepare for sure, as early as now.

I’m trying to think where we would go should it head into Tampa and straight across. If it’s as strong as these hurricane models predict it will still have a punch when it gets here so maybe we will head towards the keys for a few days. If comes further south I guess we head north… I hate this.

[xironman]

12z Best Track at 30kt, 1007 mbs and identifies a low. Classification at 11 AM?

AL, 92, 2024100512, , BEST, 0, 219N, 952W, 30, 1007, LO

https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal922024.dat

I think they will wait for a clean microwave

[skillz305]

East coast central Florida here. Not what I wanted to see waking up today. Used to it shifting away when waking up, not honing in. It’s time to prepare if you’re in central Florida whether west or east and inbetween.

[LandoWill]

Call it wish cashing, i still feel like GFS has been too locked into the central/west coast. euro has not deviated much from suggesting ft Myers south.

[Hurricaneman]

I put the center at 95.5W 22.5N based on the spin and a new convective blowup is happening in that location, seems to be a depression looking at it

[HurricaneBelle]

I hate that it's either coming for me or that I have to wish it upon someone else.

[tulum07]

This went from bad to worse overnight. All the hurricane models show possible major. Track from Tampa to Naples. Ouch!

[ScottNAtlanta]

I hate that it's either coming for me or that I have to wish it upon someone else.

Yes, that is a difficult thought process. I was thankful that Helene passed us to the east, but then seeing the devastation that the areas east of us endured (and still endure) does make you feel bad for wishing it to go in that direction.

[Gums]

Salute!

Anybody else getting "Wilma" vibrations?

And we in the Panhandle recall Opal's anniversary in a day or so. Guess early October is not the time to make a reservation at Destin or Pensacola, huh? This bad boy resembles Wilma more than anything.

Gums sends...

[aspen]

This went from bad to worse overnight. All the hurricane models show possible major. Track from Tampa to Naples. Ouch!

Only the HWRF shows an unquestionable major. HAFS-A gets it into the 920s but is extremely suspect because it shows a heavily sheared system with only half an eyewall. HAFS-B is probably more realistic, a sheared Cat 1-2. Perhaps something like Francine.

[toad strangler]

NOBODY wants to see a major, but in the event, another graphic that shows the anomaly this track origin and heading would be.

Map Credit: Michael Lowry Weather

[cycloneye]

Salute!

Anybody else getting "Wilma" vibrations?

And we in the Panhandle recall Opal's anniversary in a day or so. Guess early October is not the time to make a reservation at Destin or Pensacola, huh? This bad boy resembles Wilma more than anything.

Gums sends...

Hi Gums. To let you know that moved your post from the models thread to this main 92L discussion thread.

[Weatherboy1]

Gassing up and stocking up in Sarasota just in case. I know the hurricane models can go overboard sometimes on intensity, but general consensus is this is an area threat and certainly potentially stronger than it looked a couple days ago!

[Weatherboy1]

First visible satellite imagery tells me this is already a TD at least..

[Pipelines182]

This went from bad to worse overnight. All the hurricane models show possible major. Track from Tampa to Naples. Ouch!

Only the HWRF shows an unquestionable major. HAFS-A gets it into the 920s but is extremely suspect because it shows a heavily sheared system with only half an eyewall. HAFS-B is probably more realistic, a sheared Cat 1-2. Perhaps something like Francine.

HMON gets down to 928, GFS 944, HWRF 922. The best three intensity models all show an unquestionable major. The HAFS models need work, they havent shown to be much accuracy with intensity forecasts yet.

[MarioProtVI]

The NHC model that is used in advisories is active meaning they will designate this at 11. This is REALLY bad and this thread is likely gonna explode in page count today.

[ScottNAtlanta]

The NHC model that is used in advisories is active meaning they will designate this at 11. This is REALLY bad and this thread is likely gonna explode in page count today.

I'd say we are in blowing up territory now

[Category5Kaiju]

Between the track and some of the intensity predictions, this almost feels like Wrong Way Lenny, except imposed over the Gulf of Mexico rather than the Caribbean Sea.

Never thought I’d be saying this until now, but it’s looking ever so likely that the Tampa Bay region (including its suburbs) is going to have to contend with its first major hurricane threat in nearly 103 years.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Gassing up and stocking up in Sarasota just in case. I know the hurricane models can go overboard sometimes on intensity, but general consensus is this is an area threat and certainly potentially stronger than it looked a couple days ago!

Same here. I'm in southern Sarasota County and am going to try to beat the crowds today. Tomorrow and Monday are going to be beyond crazy, especially with people still trying to clean up from Helene. We still have some areas that are underwater and most of the swales are already full. Milton is going to make some bad situations even worse. Stay safe Weatherboy1!

[eastcoastFL]

I'm off for a Bjs run before the media starts talking about it. Stores will be crazy tomorrow. Get gas and supplies today if you can.