ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

One of the few origins and forecast tracks that makes a Tampa landfall plausible.

[ScottNAtlanta]

As this crosses the FL peninsula that offshore wind that might save Tampa will do just the opposite for areas north of track on the east coast

[Travorum]

Three hours old

[aspen]

This went from bad to worse overnight. All the hurricane models show possible major. Track from Tampa to Naples. Ouch!

Only the HWRF shows an unquestionable major. HAFS-A gets it into the 920s but is extremely suspect because it shows a heavily sheared system with only half an eyewall. HAFS-B is probably more realistic, a sheared Cat 1-2. Perhaps something like Francine.

HMON gets down to 928, GFS 944, HWRF 922. The best three intensity models all show an unquestionable major. The HAFS models need work, they havent shown to be much accuracy with intensity forecasts yet.

I’m still a little skeptical because this is such a weird track that could very easily impart a lot of shear. Even on the HWRF, shear takes its toll as 92L approaches Florida. This doesn’t look like a track conducive for ventilating shear like Michael, Ian, or Helene.

Not saying “don’t prepare for a major”, because in a situation like this it’s better to over-prepare than under. I’m just saying I’m suspicious of this blowing up to the degree some models are showing because of its track and angle.

[kevin]

I'm off for a Bjs run before the media starts talking about it. Stores will be crazy tomorrow. Get gas and supplies today if you can.

Yep agreed, I'd recommend everyone in the region to do the same. If models stay this bullish and a hurricane (or maybe even a MH) appears in the cone for 92L tomorrow, media will go crazy and so will the people. Now is the time to get ready.

[drezee]

 https://x.com/andretrotter/status/1842562375314223482

[kevin]

ASCAT from 10 hours ago already showed some 30 - 35 kt barbs, though the circulation doesn't look great yet. Large chance that the NHC will go with a PTC/TS at 11am.

[got ants?]

Just woke up, turned on tv, then checked here. Wow, what a juxtaposition! Local news ( WPLG 10 Miami) is down playing this thing big time. They kept saying "may" be a hurricane, not once saying it "might" be a major.

[aspen]

ASCAT from 10 hours ago already showed some 30 - 35 kt barbs, though the circulation doesn't look great yet. Large chance that the NHC will go with a PTC/TS at 11am.

https://i.imgur.com/XqnkDfd.png

https://i.imgur.com/TwTDSkF.png

At the very least they should go with a PTC to get the word out as soon as possible about a possible hurricane landfall in only 5 days. The northern Yucatan may need some advisories too.

[eastcoastFL]

The NHC model that is used in advisories is active meaning they will designate this at 11. This is REALLY bad and this thread is likely gonna explode in page count today.

This really sucks when these storms pop up in the Gulf leaving you next to no time to prepare. But still far enough out to make intensity and track completely uncertain. So come Monday government and business will have to make snap decisions about wed-fri.

[Keldeo1997]

Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

[cheezyWXguy]

ASCAT from 10 hours ago already showed some 30 - 35 kt barbs, though the circulation doesn't look great yet. Large chance that the NHC will go with a PTC/TS at 11am.

https://i.imgur.com/XqnkDfd.png

https://i.imgur.com/TwTDSkF.png

I think those are downslope winds off the mountains on the coast and aren’t representative of the storm’s windfield. We saw a similar effect in Francine’s formation. They’ll probably help to tighten the circulation though

[StormPyrate]

so how often do we see a hurricane or any system for that matter move east like that for days?

[zzzh]

AL142024 - Tropical Depression FOURTEEN

Don't know if it's a TD or a PTC yet.

[cycloneye]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

[Tailgater33]

I will be watching closely for the first predictions of storm surge for the TB area. I know it’s early on but I would definitely be trying to find a place to evacuate to before the warnings go out.

[Pasmorade]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/1157676956674949152/1292125126279696415/1728136981919.png?ex=670298cc&is=6701474c&hm=6deb7ace67c7c1c208641e9947d434cf1f9e673906a7755c4aabc5d3d37ded43& Here it is. Probably the only analog. 1859 Tampa Hurricane. The only other storm that's even close that I know of is Mitch.

Ah yes. A Cat 1 and nothing more.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Fourteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, at 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC).

Absurdly quick development in the last few hours.

[Weatherboy1]

First visible satellite imagery tells me this is already a TD at least..

Anddddd there it is

[johngaltfla]

Paul DelGatto's take from WTVT 13 in Tampa:

https://x.com/PaulFox13/status/1842556168494842227