ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Gassing up and stocking up in Sarasota just in case. I know the hurricane models can go overboard sometimes on intensity, but general consensus is this is an area threat and certainly potentially stronger than it looked a couple days ago!

Same here. I'm in southern Sarasota County and am going to try to beat the crowds today. Tomorrow and Monday are going to be beyond crazy, especially with people still trying to clean up from Helene. We still have some areas that are underwater and most of the swales are already full. Milton is going to make some bad situations even worse. Stay safe Weatherboy1!

I hate to see this happen for our friends in Florida...yall be prepared accordingly....major or not...

[Weatherboy1]

Gassing up and stocking up in Sarasota just in case. I know the hurricane models can go overboard sometimes on intensity, but general consensus is this is an area threat and certainly potentially stronger than it looked a couple days ago!

Same here. I'm in southern Sarasota County and am going to try to beat the crowds today. Tomorrow and Monday are going to be beyond crazy, especially with people still trying to clean up from Helene. We still have some areas that are underwater and most of the swales are already full. Milton is going to make some bad situations even worse. Stay safe Weatherboy1!

Good luck to you too! I’m downtown and was actually away for Helene. Bayfront park still closed and O’Leary’s heavily damaged as you likely know. Hopefully nothing “direct” comes here but…

[Category5Kaiju]

Oh dang, they're upgrading it now?!

Alright, here we go folks....let's see what Milton does next. People on the FL west coast should begin their preparations.

[TampaWxLurker]

We've seen the models flip flop and seesaw on this pretty wildly on both location and especially intensity for the last few days. Just have to hope that this latest model guidance is one of those swings on the pendulum and it soon swings the other way.

[zhukm29]

The last time the M name was used on this list, things did not go well. I just looked and Michael formed on 10/7 and made landfall on 10/10, so this system could potentially have more time in the Gulf with a similar jet interaction at the end. And Michael was also 14L as well...

Hopefully we don't end up with a repeat, but the development of this system is certainly faster than anyone expected...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A lot of folks are focusing (not here, elsewhere) on the idea that this storm is taking an unusual path and might not pull a Helene/Ian...

Thing is that even if the upper level environment isn't as favorable, Milton will be going right over the same jetfuel that Helene did that caused it to explode. Those near-record breaking SSTs have not been muted very much by Helene's passing. An upper-end scenario is possible, assuming shear is only moderate. This is just the reality we are living in this year.

[Category5Kaiju]

A lot of folks are focusing (not here, elsewhere) on the idea that this storm is taking an unusual path and might not pull a Helene/Ian...

Thing is that even if the upper level environment isn't as favorable, Milton will be going right over the same jetfuel that Helene did that caused it to explode. Those near-record breaking SSTs have not been muted very much by Helene's passing. An upper-end scenario is possible, assuming shear is only moderate. This is just the reality we are living in this year.

Yeah agreed, just because a storm takes a weird path doesn’t mean it cannot become anything significant. By that logic, Lenny shouldn’t have become a high-end Category 4 due to it moving east instead of west in the Caribbean Sea, and Mitch shouldn’t have become a southward-moving Category 5.

[Buck]

A lot of folks are focusing (not here, elsewhere) on the idea that this storm is taking an unusual path and might not pull a Helene/Ian...

Thing is that even if the upper level environment isn't as favorable, Milton will be going right over the same jetfuel that Helene did that caused it to explode. Those near-record breaking SSTs have not been muted very much by Helene's passing. An upper-end scenario is possible, assuming shear is only moderate. This is just the reality we are living in this year.

Yeah agreed, just because a storm takes a weird path doesn’t mean it cannot become anything significant. By that logic, Lenny shouldn’t have become a high-end Category 4 due to it moving east instead of west in the Caribbean Sea, and Mitch shouldn’t have become a southward-moving Category 5.

...or that Beryl shouldn't have been a Category 5 when she was or Kirk shouldn't have been a Category 4 when and where he was, etc....... There are always new examples of climatological outliers that show us anything is possible.

[underthwx]

I looked at 92L intensity models on tropical tidbits...but I dont understand how to read them...can anyone tell me what the models are showing?...im reading yalls posts suggesting a major cyclone possibly?...

[chris_fit]

Track predictions for 11am first track?

I'll go with 90mph into Englewood.

[Hurricaneman]

Track predictions for 11am first track?

I'll go with 90mph into Englewood.

I say Sarasota but think your intensity is correct

[kevin]

First NHC advisory, 95 kt peak before landfall near Tampa .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[ineedsnow]

brings to 110 mph at 11am

[cheezyWXguy]

First NHC advisory, 95 kt peak before landfall near Tampa .

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.1N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 22.5N 94.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.9N 94.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 22.8N 93.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.9N 91.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 23.4N 89.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 24.3N 87.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 27.0N 83.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 29.9N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[Soluna16]

Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 95.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is
expected during the next day or so. A faster east-northeastward to
northeastward motion is forecast by Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the depression is forecast to remain over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move across
the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday, and approach
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by early Monday. The system could become a major
hurricane while it moves across the central and eastern Gulf of
Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Uh oh they used "Major"

[Pasmorade]

Track predictions for 11am first track?

I'll go with 90mph into Englewood.

I say Sarasota but think your intensity is correct

Aged like milk.

[Michele B]

This is really turning into a nightmare. If any of these morning models verify, beyond the normal damage it would potentially cause there's the matter of this on the front page of today's Tampa Bay Times:

Hurricane Helene debris overwhelms Tampa Bay cities and haulers
There are several million cubic yards of storm debris in need of collection, according to a top Pinellas County official.

https://www.tampabay.com/hurricane/2024 ... unty-dump/

All of that is shaping up to be projectiles should hurricane-force winds arrive here. There are several piles of it on my block.

Imagine being city managers right now and trying to figure out what the H*** to do! Nightmare, indeed.

[kevin]

Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 05 2024

Early morning one-minute GOES-East satellite imagery shows that the
circulation associated with the area of low pressure over the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico has become better defined. Deep
convection has been persistent over the northwestern portion of the
circulation with some increase in banding also noted. Based on the
recent increase in organization, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression Fourteen. The initial intensity is set at 30
kt which is supported by overnight ASCAT data. Another ASCAT pass
is expected over the system later this morning.

The depression is moving north-northeastward or 025/3 kt. The
system is forecast to drift northeastward or east-northeastward
during the next day or so. After that time, a trough moving
southward over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to cause
the system to turn east-northeastward to northeastward at a
slightly faster forward speed. By Tuesday the cyclone is expected
to move northeastward at an increasingly faster forward speed and
this track will bring the system across the west coast of the
Florida Peninsula by midweek. The track guidance is in good
agreement on this overall scenario, but there are differences in
the forward speed. The NHC track lies near the various consensus
aids, but it slightly faster since the typically reliable GFS and
ECMWF global models are on the faster side of the guidance. Users
are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track or timing at
the longer range as the average NHC 4-day track error is about 150
miles.

The depression is within a favorable environment of low vertical
wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions are
expected to allow for steady to rapid strengthening over the next
few days. The intensification is likely to be slower during the
next 12 to 24 hours until an inner core can become established, but
after that time a faster rate of strengthening is anticipated. The
global models predicted significant deepening when the system moves
across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico and the regional
hurricane models show the potential for rapid strengthening during
that time. The NHC forecast follows suit and calls for a period of
rapid intensification after 36 h. The official forecast shows
the system nearing major hurricane strength over the central and
eastern Gulf of Mexico. This forecast is near the intensity
consensus aids but some upward adjustment may be required as it lies
a little below the regional hurricane models. Regardless of the
exact details of the intensity forecast, an intense hurricane with
multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to affect the west coast
of the Florida Peninsula next week.

[skillz305]

[BobHarlem]

Graphics slow but Bradenton landfall, out by Cape Canaveral.