ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Fancy1002]

Before you ask if I’m crazy hear me out. It seems the stronger the storm is the more north it will go , so I hope the storm is as strong as can be because if we end up with a strong category three or weak to mid category four, Tampa is screwed and we might end up with a worse disaster than Katrina in cost and possibly even Jeanne in death toll. I know that’s an extreme view, but I just have a really bad feeling about this and I don’t see it coming in as a weak storm

Barring something like a New England/Mid Atlantic landfall of a massive major cane, I doubt that we’ll see a CONUS impact bring a death toll anywhere near Katrina (which was ~3,500). Even Helene, which has wiped entire towns off the map and impact a dozen states, likely won’t have a final death toll anywhere near that. The Katrina disaster was a function of the levee failures following the storm (initially people thought New Orleans had avoided the worst after the storm weakened prior to landfall) combined with the relative poverty of impacted parishes and many failing to evacuate. Warning systems have improved dramatically especially with the rise of smartphones.

I agree that morning systems gave dramatically improved, but after 100 years of missed major storms, I’m afraid that a large percentage of people won’t take the storm seriously and will decide to ride it out.

[fci]

Probably the best case scenario right now is a far southern solution, through the Everglades, although it still brings significant impacts to the Keys.

Seems like the trend is further north.
A couple of days ago the southern track seemed more likely and I guess being stronger and less influence from the frontal trough have changed that.

[Steve]

Before you ask if I’m crazy hear me out. It seems the stronger the storm is the more north it will go , so I hope the storm is as strong as can be because if we end up with a strong category three or weak to mid category four, Tampa is screwed and we might end up with a worse disaster than Katrina in cost and possibly even Jeanne in death toll. I know that’s an extreme view, but I just have a really bad feeling about this and I don’t see it coming in as a weak storm

I don’t want anyone getting hurt, but a Tampa landfall would be the worst case scenario and I don’t think we as a state or a country could handle that right now.

Bush Library says 161 Billion for Katrina which is higher than I’ve seen in the past. Not sure what the adjusted figures would be. People thought Harvey would break that cost record too. Tampa is not an area where surge comes in and stays for a month or two. It’s in and out. So while destruction would be extremely widespread from your example, it can’t really be the same thing. It’s not possible that almost anywhere in the USA where a hurricane can hit that 75% of a city would be underwater 4-5 weeks later. That doesn’t mean damage near water can’t be much worse. We just saw Helene in NC. And there are numerous rivers, bays, inlets and coves from Naples all the way up to Cedar Key. So close to the water surge will wash through ala MS Gulf Coast. Areas immediate along the rivers and bays would have the worst damage. Imho, if Milton hits as a 3, it could be anywhere from a 15-65 billion storm. If it’s fading coming in, the damage will be reduced. This is going to be bad for some, but as we see here from all our friends and family down-state, recent memories will help mitigate some loss of life.

https://www.georgewbushlibrary.gov/rese ... ne-katrina

[NDG]

https://youtu.be/TtnKC7M7h00?si=ZE2YJliweNCDhDeJ

Dr Levi spoke too soon about the Euro disagreeing on strength with the GFS, latest run by the Euro is much stronger.

[underthwx]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

They have posted being aware of the storm, but nothing more besides that. I live just outside downtown St. Petersburg. I hope the message is more urgency along the beaches. I still don’t think sandbag fill locations have been posted around here.

Thanks for your reply bro....much appreciated!....I wish you the best there....please be safe...

[Steve]

https://youtu.be/TtnKC7M7h00?si=ZE2YJliweNCDhDeJ

Dr Levi spoke too soon about the Euro disagreeing on strength with the GFS, latest run by the Euro is much stronger.

What’s it show 940’s?

[ScottNAtlanta]

When it comes to Tampa, you don't want a hurricane to be north of Tampa Bay. That just pushes water up the bay. You'd ideally want it to be south of Tampa with an offshore flow.

[NDG]

https://youtu.be/TtnKC7M7h00?si=ZE2YJliweNCDhDeJ

Dr Levi spoke too soon about the Euro disagreeing on strength with the GFS, latest run by the Euro is much stronger.

What’s it show 940’s?

Latest Euro show 960s, down from 980s.

[underthwx]

https://youtu.be/TtnKC7M7h00?si=ZE2YJliweNCDhDeJ

Dr Levi spoke too soon about the Euro disagreeing on strength with the GFS, latest run by the Euro is much stronger.

I watched the vid...I did not realize that part of what is now Milton...were from the remnants of an East Pacific cyclone?....the only epac cyclone I recall was hurricane john?.....is that the cyclone mentioned in this vid?...

[StPeteMike]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

They have posted being aware of the storm, but nothing more besides that. I live just outside downtown St. Petersburg. I hope the message is more urgency along the beaches. I still don’t think sandbag fill locations have been posted around here.

Thanks for your reply bro....much appreciated!....I wish you the best there....please be safe...

Thank you! More worried about this than Helene because the soil will be soaked with the rain we are expected to receive the next few days, think we will see ever greater power outages than we saw with Helene with trees falling down. Wind will also be stronger, if a track towards us is the scenario. Can’t even fathom our coastal areas with even a storm surge from a Cat 2, which is normally between 6-8 ft.

Hoping for the best, expecting the worst.

[Hugo1989]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

They have posted being aware of the storm, but nothing more besides that. I live just outside downtown St. Petersburg. I hope the message is more urgency along the beaches. I still don’t think sandbag fill locations have been posted around here.

I heard about the sandbag from my Ring App.

[Pasmorade]

https://youtu.be/TtnKC7M7h00?si=ZE2YJliweNCDhDeJ

Dr Levi spoke too soon about the Euro disagreeing on strength with the GFS, latest run by the Euro is much stronger.

I watched the vid...I did not realize that part of what is now Milton...were from the remnants of an East Pacific cyclone?....the only epac cyclone I recall was hurricane john?.....is that the cyclone mentioned in this vid?...

Basically, the remnants of TD-13 in the EPAC interacted with a stationary front and the low that became Milton, later being absorbed by the latter.

[Pasmorade]

Interesting terminology from KHOU.

The storm is expected to move to the northeast and affect Florida as a tropical storm or possibly a hurricane.

[StPeteMike]

Can any of you in the Tampa area share what your local emergency management officials are saying?....I understand that this event has been rapidly evolving this morning....but is there a notable sense of urgency there?....my youngest sister lives in Tampa....I tried calling her to talk some sense into her....but no luck....

They have posted being aware of the storm, but nothing more besides that. I live just outside downtown St. Petersburg. I hope the message is more urgency along the beaches. I still don’t think sandbag fill locations have been posted around here.

I heard about the sandbag from my Ring App.

Just saw a post about sandbag locations. Hoping people utilize them, Helene might have just been a warning shot for this area.

[weeniepatrol]

This is the most ominous system I’ve ever seen. just 36 hours ago the most likely solution was a non tropical frontal low

I know things in the tropics change quickly but I’ve got whiplash.

[cycloneye]

AL, 14, 2024100518, , BEST, 0, 225N, 955W, 35, 1006, TS

[cycloneye]

Since 1851 only 18 have impacted western Florida.. Wow.

 https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1842638855922765841

[Blown Away]

For a location that very rarely takes a direct impact by a hurricane, it’s amazing how many times Tampa Bay is a direct target in model runs and NHC tracks… Hopefully that trend continues…

[underthwx]

Since 1851 only 18 have impacted western Florida.. Wow.

 https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1842638855922765841

So Milton is on a rare track for this time of year?....

[Pasmorade]

Since 1851 only 18 have impacted western Florida.. Wow.

 https://x.com/DrKimWood/status/1842638855922765841

So Milton is on a rare track for this time of year?....

Milton is actually on a rare track for any time of year. It's actually surprising how little storms take this path...