ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

Last clip on the part of that loop looks like a hot tower firing right over LLC. That should send it on its way.

[Michele B]

OK, "boots on the ground" report:

I went to shop for a few essentials I was low on....about 2:30. Traffic normal for a Saturday afternoon. In our neck of the woods, after about 2 pm, those people who do their shopping and other "chores" have completed it all and gone home to prepare for their evening activities, be it a movie with the family or out to dinner or whatev.

So, today, not so different - except for the number of car haulers we saw. LOTS of truckers moving vehicles that were on flatbeds....at least 4 or 5 of them, carrying 3 to 5 cars each. We figure a few people were moving cars out of harm's way. Right?

Well, an hour later - after shopping, topping off gas cans and such (where there was a mixed bag: some who knew about the impending storm and some with no clue), we head home - west of town. It is BUMPER TO BUMPER traffic eastbound! Lots and lots of cars, a few more car haulers and such....even one guy hauling a pontoon boat!

So my assessment is that folks on the coast (Sarasota and Bradenton west of us) are EVACUATING!

[BobHarlem]

OK, "boots on the ground" report:

I went to shop for a few essentials I was low on....about 2:30. Traffic normal for a Saturday afternoon. In our neck of the woods, after about 2 pm, those people who do their shopping and other "chores" have completed it all and gone home to prepare for their evening activities, be it a movie with the family or out to dinner or whatev.

So, today, not so different - except for the number of car haulers we saw. LOTS of truckers moving vehicles that were on flatbeds....at least 4 or 5 of them, carrying 3 to 5 cars each. We figure a few people were moving cars out of harm's way. Right?

Well, an hour later - after shopping, topping off gas cans and such (where there was a mixed bag: some who knew about the impending storm and some with no clue), we head home - west of town. It is BUMPER TO BUMPER traffic eastbound! Lots and lots of cars, a few more car haulers and such....even one guy hauling a pontoon boat!

So my assessment is that folks on the coast (Sarasota and Bradenton west of us) are EVACUATING!

I suspect with the recent impacts from Helene and Ian experiences, there will a be a lot of people evacuating very soon.

[HurricaneWarning92]

Well stay safe all of you who will be impacted by Milton. I continue to be amazed at how many bullets we have dodged here in SEFL (Broward). Crazy to think the last “strong” impactful storm we had was Wilma in ‘05. At least this area. The luck continues.

[jlauderdal]

OK, "boots on the ground" report:

I went to shop for a few essentials I was low on....about 2:30. Traffic normal for a Saturday afternoon. In our neck of the woods, after about 2 pm, those people who do their shopping and other "chores" have completed it all and gone home to prepare for their evening activities, be it a movie with the family or out to dinner or whatev.

So, today, not so different - except for the number of car haulers we saw. LOTS of truckers moving vehicles that were on flatbeds....at least 4 or 5 of them, carrying 3 to 5 cars each. We figure a few people were moving cars out of harm's way. Right?

Well, an hour later - after shopping, topping off gas cans and such (where there was a mixed bag: some who knew about the impending storm and some with no clue), we head home - west of town. It is BUMPER TO BUMPER traffic eastbound! Lots and lots of cars, a few more car haulers and such....even one guy hauling a pontoon boat!

So my assessment is that folks on the coast (Sarasota and Bradenton west of us) are EVACUATING!

I suspect with the recent impacts from Helene and Ian experiences, there will a be a lot of people evacuating very soon.

I would advise them to go to the panhandle and points north and west. There will he flooding issues south.

[TampaWxLurker]

OK, "boots on the ground" report:

I went to shop for a few essentials I was low on....about 2:30. Traffic normal for a Saturday afternoon. In our neck of the woods, after about 2 pm, those people who do their shopping and other "chores" have completed it all and gone home to prepare for their evening activities, be it a movie with the family or out to dinner or whatev.

So, today, not so different - except for the number of car haulers we saw. LOTS of truckers moving vehicles that were on flatbeds....at least 4 or 5 of them, carrying 3 to 5 cars each. We figure a few people were moving cars out of harm's way. Right?

Well, an hour later - after shopping, topping off gas cans and such (where there was a mixed bag: some who knew about the impending storm and some with no clue), we head home - west of town. It is BUMPER TO BUMPER traffic eastbound! Lots and lots of cars, a few more car haulers and such....even one guy hauling a pontoon boat!

So my assessment is that folks on the coast (Sarasota and Bradenton west of us) are EVACUATING!

I suspect with the recent impacts from Helene and Ian experiences, there will a be a lot of people evacuating very soon.

Silver lining. A lot of people didn't evacuate off the barrier islands and coastal areas in Hillsborough/Pinellas/Manatee/Sarasota for Helene. And I heard from a lot of people that had to spend the night standing on their kitchen counters as the surge came in. Less than 2 weeks later, those lessons are pretty well engrained in people's minds. I'd imagine many, many more people will be willing to evacuate ahead of this one. Not to mention, most of the lowest-lying houses out on the coast are already destroyed/uninhabitable from the surge already.

If the worst-case scenario happens here in Tampa (and I hope to god it doesn't), there will be a much smaller population staying in Zone A/B to ride it out than if this were the first storm this season.

[gatorcane]

Updated NHC track out at 5pm EST. I think we expect a north nudge which may place the track directly over the Tampa Bay area. Will they show it as a Major hurricane with this upcoming forecast?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot towers are firing near the center. The system continues to maintain deep convection near diurnal minimum. This should help the system intensify and organize more rapidly than otherwise.

[StPeteMike]

Updated NHC track out at 5pm EST. I think we expect a north nudge which may place the track directly over the Tampa Bay area. Will they show it as a Major hurricane with this upcoming forecast?

Boy, I don’t know. It’s been ahead of schedule all day and they already had it at a mile per hour before Major status. I would hate to say yes, but would be going against the reality of progression with the storm.

[cycloneye]

[zzzh]

I see a partially exposed center

[TampaWxLurker]

Updated NHC track out at 5pm EST. I think we expect a north nudge which may place the track directly over the Tampa Bay area. Will they show it as a Major hurricane with this upcoming forecast?

I'd say center-line through southern Pinellas, showing a major hurricane. We're ~4 days out, the general populace need to be made readily aware of the risk now.

[ConvergenceZone]

Updated NHC track out at 5pm EST. I think we expect a north nudge which may place the track directly over the Tampa Bay area. Will they show it as a Major hurricane with this upcoming forecast?

I think they will show it as a major, especially considering they weren't expending a tropical storm until this evening or later.

[aspen]

I see a partially exposed center

Maybe ingesting some of the dry air that every storm has dealt with in the Gulf this year.

Nice tower blowing up over it now though.

[Hurricane2022]

Holy cow...

INIT 05/2100Z 22.7N 95.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.9N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.0N 92.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.1N 91.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.8N 89.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 87.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 27.7N 83.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 30.4N 77.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[sponger]

This track is coming North, perhaps all the way back to Steinhatchee over the next couple of days. Would be better for Tampa and worse for Jacksonville. All hell is going to break loose Monday regardless. I will get gas today in case a certain country decides it's time to take out a major supplier Sunday night.

[weeniepatrol]

[galaxy401]

That M right over the Tampa area is a sure wake-up call to prepare.

[Hurricane2022]

The NHC now forecasts a Major Hurricane Milton passing just north, if not over, the Tampa Bay.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This track is coming North, perhaps all the way back to Steinhatchee over the next couple of days. Would be better for Tampa and worse for Jacksonville. All hell is going to break loose Monday regardless. I will get gas today in case a certain country decides it's time to take out a major supplier Sunday night.

Not seeing much evidence for it veering that far north at this time; but they are in the cone I suppose.