ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

Hey wxman57....talk us off the ledge

[wxman57]

Hey wxman57....talk us off the ledge

I do think it'll move inland to your south, but it could be close. Don't get off the ledge just yet.

[aspen]

I see a partially exposed center

Maybe ingesting some of the dry air that every storm has dealt with in the Gulf this year.

Nice tower blowing up over it now though.

Yeah, I remember how the dry air killed Helene

Sorry, I should’ve rephrased it. I meant that every Gulf hurricane struggled with dry air entrainment at some point in its life, even though most recovered to varying degrees. Fairly frequent this year, but I’m not saying it eliminates the threat of a Gulf storm. If anything, Helene’s brief struggle with dry air after getting close to the Yucatan facilitated the RI-to-landfall by delaying the start of RI.

[LandoWill]

In 40 years i've lived by the " more than 4 days out" rule. If the NHC says it's coming into your location 4 days out, it's not. Will i be wrong ? So far over 40 years i haven't been mistaken. Maybe just dumb luck -

[ConvergenceZone]

Well, I knew trouble was brewing when that front across the central Gulf began moving out to the north last evening. Woke up at 4am and began typing up an advisory on the disturbance. My initial thought was down toward Ft. Myers on Wed. Consensus, GFS and hurricane models are farther north, closer to Tampa. As Levi pointed out in his video, wind shear may increase significantly 6-12 hours prior to landfall. We could see a situation similar to Debby, Francine, and Helene in that sustained wind inland will be lower but gusts may be double the sustained wind. Maybe sustained 55-65 mph inland and gusts over 100. Something like that. NHC decided to destroy Tampa in their last advisory. FYI, such a storm would put 12-18 ft of water into Tampa Bay. Not good. I'm still thinking south of Tampa, maybe Sarasota, possibly still as far south as Ft. Myers. So much for my weekend and comp days...

wow, I'm surprised you are thinking landfall possible as far south as fort Myers. That's a huge difference from where's it's currently forecasted to go. But I'm sure you have your reasons. Good to see ya Wxman.

[psyclone]

Hey wxman57....talk us off the ledge

I do think it'll move inland to your south, but it could be close. Don't get off the ledge just yet.

It does appear this is yet another system where the heaviest rain resides north of the track. Would you agree with that sort of a lopsided convective configuration? BTW thanks for taking the time to talk to us plebs. We appreciate your insight

[Teban54]

In 40 years i've lived by the " more than 4 days out" rule. If the NHC says it's coming into your location 4 days out, it's not. Will i be wrong ? So far over 40 years i haven't been mistaken. Maybe just dumb luck -

It is just dumb luck. Ida's forecast landfall location was consistent during the entire 5-day forecast period. Ian's and Helene's 5-day forecast points were also almost exactly the verified landfall location, even though there were some changes to track forecasts in the mean time (minor shifts for Helene, major shifts for Ian).

[kevin]

The NHC now forecasts a Major Hurricane Milton passing just north, if not over, the Tampa Bay.
https://imageshack.com/i/pnsd20gCp

M right over TB 4 days out, that's a historic forecast cone right there... I hope it all ends up being weaker than expected, but I'm very concerned.

[Nimbus]

There have been too many recent storms where the NHC forecasted a MH within the first few advisories, but Milton has to be the one with the shortest notice in advance. Just 48 hours ago, the consensus from virtually everyone was a frontal low.

Even recon has been pushing back the first mission since wednesday when it was slated for the NW Caribbean. All has been so fast with this.

Station 42055 is reporting winds shifting to the SW now 220 degrees?
You would expect a TS passing to the south to shift the winds around so they are from 90 degrees.
Buoy data may be good enough for model initialization if they notice it..

[wxman57]

In my experience storms tracking NE across the Gulf this time of year tend to go inland (into FL) south of where you think they'll track. That's the best Tampa can hope for.

[dukeblue219]

wow, I'm surprised you are thinking landfall possible as far south as fort Myers. That's a huge difference from where's it's currently forecasted to go. But I'm sure you have your reasons. Good to see ya Wxman.

At this time range it's not that huge of a difference between Ft Myers and Tampa or Clearwater. Wasn't all that many years ago that forecasts at 72 hrs would fail by far more.

[johngaltfla]

In my experience storms tracking NE across the Gulf this time of year tend to go inland (into FL) south of where you think they'll track. That's the best Tampa can hope for.

Not great for Bradenton on South. I'm waiting to see the latest UKMet and ICON runs tomorrow morning for a better idea. Hopefully recon data is hitting by tomorrow night's 5 pm update.

[cheezyWXguy]

Although not perfectly aligned with the low level center, that deep convection burst is impressively persistent considering it’s approaching dmin. Demonstrates how good conditions are and how much fuel it has to work with from those warm ssts. I wonder if Milton will outperform in the short term

[Hurrilurker]

Lots of -80° cloud tops bubbling up over the center...tonight should be interesting.

[ronjon]

I would suspect any shifts in track might be southward. It's hard to imagine a dramatic NE or N-NE track with the orientation of the trough. The fact we have ICON, UKMET, and CMC holding on to their more southern tracks lends some support at this time toward a more E-NE solution a little further south than currently forecast by NHC. Now if these other models start moving north the next few cycles then I think Tampa Bay's luck has run out. On a more positive note, several models are showing rising pressures 12 hrs prior to landfall so increasing shear may affect the storm with a weakening trend prior to LF.

[GCANE]

Wow, just saw this on the latest GFS.
700mb vort is huge, takes up the whole GOM on approach to landfall.
Never seen anything like it before.

[underthwx]

I would suspect any shifts in track might be southward. It's hard to imagine a dramatic NE or N-NE track with the orientation of the trough. The fact we have ICON, UKMET, and CMC holding on to their more southern tracks lends some support at this time toward a more E-NE solution a little further south than currently forecast by NHC. Now if these other models start moving north the next few cycles then I think Tampa Bay's luck has run out. On a more positive note, several models are showing rising pressures 12 hrs prior to landfall so increasing shear may affect the storm with a weakening trend prior to LF.

And rising pressures would be a good thing...as you...and Xman57 have noted....thars a positive factor....lets hope for many more....

[derpbynature]

18Z GFS comes in somewhere around Crystal River/Cedar Key. Those folks on Cedar Key can't catch a break (if that verifies)

[GCANE]

I think this will be a major smack down for the whole state.
Tornadoes, surge, winds, everything!

[underthwx]

The cyclone looks as though it has not moved much at all.....essentially appears to be sitting and spinning in the same location....but I know it's motion is turtle slow atm.....once the trough digs a bit deeper into the NW Gulf...is when we will see this forward motion pick up a bit....correct?....