ATL: MILTON - Models

[Steve]

HAFS closer resembles the 4k NAM sometimes. Such an overcooked scenario is borderline absurd.

I always wonder, if models like this are overdoing intensity so often, why don't they just tweak the code that feeds into the model?

I'm not sure what the answer is, but keep in mind:

• Kirk just became stronger than every single hurricane model showed;
• Unless I'm mistaken, hurricane models (dating back to before HAFS was a thing) are still the best intensity models and have the smallest error in intensity among those available.

Somebody else will need to verify because all I got is anecdotes. But once they latch say 4-5 days out they crater pressures into unlikely depths of pressure. But within 72 or so they tend to adjust to what it’s going to be.

[BobHarlem]

Crystal River/Homosassa Springs landfall looks like on the 18z HAFS-B, pretty much the same spot as the 12z, except 6 hours later.




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[xironman]

gross

https://i.imgur.com/2QdnFBi.png

Still no sub 900, the HAFSA did get to 901 though

Nam 3km will hopefully pull it off.

The 4k actually does a great job on extratropical storms to use it on tropical systems is just crazy

[ROCK]

gross

https://i.imgur.com/2QdnFBi.png

Still no sub 900, the HAFSA did get to 901 though

Nam 3km will hopefully pull it off.

Ha most likely!!

[Steve]

Homosassa Springs landfall looks like on the 18z HAFS-B

https://i.imgur.com/Rex5exw.png

1

That’s 4 if not necessarily getting to the surface.

[NDG]

The latest NHC forecast did the right thing of a MH at landfall with the hurricane models so strong today. Chances of a MH at landfall are very high.

[TampaWxLurker]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

[Emmett_Brown]

Landfall times seem to be getting pushed out a little more each run

[gatorcane]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

Yes but not before Pinellas County, Pasco, Hernando including the Tampa Bay area get walloped, with the SE side (SW wind flow would create a massive storm surge).

[Keldeo1997]

HAFS wants Rita but going the other way.

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS A about the same landfall point as B, but time wise a little ahead of the B, but weaker at landfall, both a and b rapidly weaken as they approach landfall. This is a shift left/north of the 12z HAFS A Though.

[Flwxguy86]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

Kinda academic at thatp point honestly, It wil still be pushing water like the pressure is 915 and 950 is still a major hurricane. Seems like the models aren't backing down, I kinda thought they might but they seem to be getting stronger with each run but losing a tiny bit of steam right before landfall.

[Tekken_Guy]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

Yes but not before Pinellas County, Pasco, Hernando including the Tampa Bay area get walloped, with the SE side (SW wind flow would create a massive storm surge).

https://i.postimg.cc/HsGdQcFZ/hafsb-mslp-wind-14-L-fh78-105.gif

Thank god landfall isn’t in Pinellas though. That would be a total worst-case scenario.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

We'll see what happens. Personally, I'd want to see recon data before latching onto another Big Bend area landfall. I think the GFS and the respective hurricane models might be a little overcooked in the next 24 hours, resulting in a more poleward solution. This is a very different steering setup than Helene, intensity is going to matter a lot.

[Cat5James]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

Yes but not before Pinellas County, Pasco, Hernando including the Tampa Bay area get walloped, with the SE side (SW wind flow would create a massive storm surge).

https://i.postimg.cc/HsGdQcFZ/hafsb-mslp-wind-14-L-fh78-105.gif

Thank god landfall isn’t in Pinellas though. That would be a total worst-case scenario.

That is still very much a possibility

[NDG]

Final 18 hours before landfall in the HAFS-B, pressure rises from 915 to 950.

Yes but not before Pinellas County, Pasco, Hernando including the Tampa Bay area get walloped, with the SE side (SW wind flow would create a massive storm surge).

https://i.postimg.cc/HsGdQcFZ/hafsb-mslp-wind-14-L-fh78-105.gif

Thank god landfall isn’t in Pinellas though. That would be a total worst-case scenario.

Unfortunately the storm surge could be even worst than Helene.

[Spacecoast]

18z GEFS: Ens mean S of Tampa

[chris_fit]

18z GEFS: Ens mean S of Tampa
https://i.ibb.co/sK5x5V7/gefs.jpg

Ahhh the infamous right hook right before landfall.

[Steve H.]

Well I have been wondering if Milton was going to make it all the way to Florida. Seems like the trough in the SE may begin to pull out and lose its grip on the storm, causing it to slow or stall. But I have learned over the years to put my money on the nhc. They will no for sure come Monday

[Steve H.]

Sorry, wrong imogie