ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

48 hr satellite loop, what is very impressive how it has had persistent deep convection 95% of the time.

[ColdFusion]

OOF. Hope this forecast looks drastically different by tomorrow.

[Flwxguy86]

Well, I am not leaving yet, I will probably make my decision tuesday night, because I know it's gonna be a nightmare to get any bit really far north, I just need to get out of the surge zone and 15-20 miles North and possbily east should accomplish that. The models still aren't really going much further south, and comparatively not very far north, plus just north of Tampa bay isn't much better than into Tampa bay.

Tuesday night may be too late as TS conditions could begin then. I'm tentatively leaving at dawn (or just before) on Tuesday morning.

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Seeing a lot more helicity in the last hour

DMAX about to kick in. Keep us posted on the random aspects of the atmosphere and troposphere as we head into the week.

Isn't DMAX right before sunrise?

[Steve]

Seeing a lot more helicity in the last hour

DMAX about to kick in. Keep us posted on the random aspects of the atmosphere and troposphere as we head into the week.

Isn't DMAX right before sunrise?

Peaks overnight.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is my opinion, so take that for what it's worth...but if you are on the fence about whether to board up and leave...now is the time you need to make a decision. Tuesday will be too late and everyone else that failed to decide now will be in a mad rush to do just what you are doing trying to board up at the last minute. It is much better to board up and be ready to leave, giving yourself an extra day to get it done by making your decision now than find out at the last minute you are not prepared and there is nothing you can do and no where to go.
Now is the time...and time is running out. Why take a chance like that with your life and property? Don't be scared...be prepared!

[ScottNAtlanta]

DMAX about to kick in. Keep us posted on the random aspects of the atmosphere and troposphere as we head into the week.

Isn't DMAX right before sunrise?

Peaks overnight.

Sorry...I thought you posted that at like 5pm EST. Time is getting away from me today

[Sciencerocks]

 https://x.com/SteveBowenWx/status/1842636020333813918

[Spacecoast]

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Oct 6 2024

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

Tropical Storm Milton is centered near 22.7N 95.5W at 05/2100
UTC or 210 nm N of Veracruz Mexico, moving NNE at 3 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted within 75 nm SW and 30 nm NE semicircles
of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
seen elsewhere from 23N to 26N between 91W and 95W. Peak seas are
estimated at 14 ft. On the forecast track, Milton is forecast to
remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night,
then move across the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Monday and
Tuesday, and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by
midweek. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the
next few days. Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday
night, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches
the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by mid week. There is an
increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge and wind impacts
for portions of the west coast of the Florida Peninsula beginning
late Tuesday or Wednesday. Areas of heavy rainfall will impact
portions of Florida Sunday and Monday well ahead of Milton, with
heavy rainfall more directly related to the system expected later
on Tuesday through Wednesday night. This rainfall brings the
risk of flash, urban, and areal flooding, along with minor to
moderate river flooding. Swells generated by the system will
begin to affect the coast of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
tonight. These swells are expected to spread northward and
eastward along much of the Gulf Coast by early next week. These
swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/NbergWX/status/1842719289117417499

[USTropics]

Seeing a lot more helicity in the last hour

DMAX about to kick in. Keep us posted on the random aspects of the atmosphere and troposphere as we head into the week.

Isn't DMAX right before sunrise?

Recent research by Dr. Dunion (https://www.aoml.noaa.gov/people/jason-dunion/) shows the diurnal cycle radially propagates from the inner core (~100-200km) around sunset and then reaches 300-400km by sunrise/afternoon. It's dependent on location, but here is the CIMSS product for Milton:

Radii markings for Milton:


Current diurnal cycle for Milton (just beginning in the inner core/200km):


You can find these products here: https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/tc_diurnal_cycle/tc_diurnal_cycle.storm.php?&period=3day&prod=&storm=14L

[Steve]

Remind me of that site next year US. Much obliged.

[Jr0d]

Well, I am not leaving yet, I will probably make my decision tuesday night, because I know it's gonna be a nightmare to get any bit really far north, I just need to get out of the surge zone and 15-20 miles North and possbily east should accomplish that. The models still aren't really going much further south, and comparatively not very far north, plus just north of Tampa bay isn't much better than into Tampa bay.

Tuesday night may be too late as TS conditions could begin then. I'm tentatively leaving at dawn (or just before) on Tuesday morning.

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

That is not so easy in the lower Keys. Its a good 120 miles drive as a storm like this has the potential to flood put every island in the chain underwater... obviously I am not confident in the forecast and already getting prepared if our worst case scenario happens.

We have been lucky the last few close calls, this one could out almost the entire island chain underwater, if it goes further south than expected and the most bullish models are right about intensity.

I do think the further south this goes, the more intense..

The best scenario for everyone is fir Milton to be much weaker than expected, unfortunately I don't think this is likely.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like data buoy 42055 will be in Milton's path (or close) in the next 12-24hrs

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055

[aspen]

Me either..quite impressive if the GFS is right.

I assume this means a large wind field?

Not only that but will be very slow to wind down over land.
Could be a major across the whole state and emerge in the Atlantic as a major.

Which how much weakening the hurricane models are showing in the last 18-24 hours before landfall, I’ll be surprised if it exits Florida as a major. 100+ mph gusts and a major-like pressure, likely. But land interaction plus extreme shear from the jet streak should weaken it a lot more, even though time over land will be brief.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track: ScottNAtlanta, bouy 42055 will be south.

AL, 14, 2024100600, , BEST, 0, 229N, 953W, 35, 1006, TS

[grapealcoholic]

Pulsing down currently. Next CB should be interesting

[Poonwalker]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

[eastcoastFL]

I assume this means a large wind field?

Not only that but will be very slow to wind down over land.
Could be a major across the whole state and emerge in the Atlantic as a major.

Which how much weakening the hurricane models are showing in the last 18-24 hours before landfall, I’ll be surprised if it exits Florida as a major. 100+ mph gusts and a major-like pressure, likely. But land interaction plus extreme shear from the jet streak should weaken it a lot more, even though time over land will be brief.

That will depend where it crosses. If it traverses the swamps or lake O it won’t lose much of its punch. If it’s moving fast it might not lose any.

[eastcoastFL]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

If flooding is a concern you’re going to want to evac if you can. That generator won’t do you any good if you have water in the house.