ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jlauderdal]

Tuesday night may be too late as TS conditions could begin then. I'm tentatively leaving at dawn (or just before) on Tuesday morning.

The way I figure it, I only really need to get inland maybe 20 or 30 minutes away and find a solid structure and hope I have a place to come back to, I could probably do that tuesday early in the evening as long the timeline doesn't drastically move faster.

That is not so easy in the lower Keys. Its a good 120 miles drive as a storm like this has the potential to flood put every island in the chain underwater... obviously I am not confident in the forecast and already getting prepared if our worst case scenario happens.

We have been lucky the last few close calls, this one could out almost the entire island chain underwater, if it goes further south than expected and the most bullish models are right about intensity.

I do think the further south this goes, the more intense..

The best scenario for everyone is fir Milton to be much weaker than expected, unfortunately I don't think this is likely.

Key West always tricky but I think you are in good shape for this one.

[got ants?]

I'm in Vero. Keep a close eye. Should board up if track shifts south I suppose.

I am in Oldsmar which sits right on top of the bay. I don't think unless there is a decent shift south that there is a way that I am not going to have to leave, Literally most of the surge would be piling up into oldsmar and safety harbor. Not to mention my place is less than a mile from the bay and probably about 14 miles from the gulf. I am in a terrible place for this.

Stay patient, plenty of time for a move south.

Hope you don't listen to this guy. You're in the cross hairs, and prudent moves would be evacuating early, which means securing your property before you leave. My advice would to NOT wait..

[sponger]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

Do not forget high load extension cords. The ones for the lawn are not meant for high loads if you want to run a window ac or a fridge. Lights, tv and a fan will be fine.

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

[Steve]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

GFS trough reaches in from the east coast to grab it and is influencing at 60 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=60

[SconnieCane]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

[jlauderdal]

I am in Oldsmar which sits right on top of the bay. I don't think unless there is a decent shift south that there is a way that I am not going to have to leave, Literally most of the surge would be piling up into oldsmar and safety harbor. Not to mention my place is less than a mile from the bay and probably about 14 miles from the gulf. I am in a terrible place for this.

Stay patient, plenty of time for a move south.

Hope you don't listen to this guy. You're in the cross hairs, and prudent moves would be evacuating early, which means securing your property before you leave. My advice would to NOT wait..

Fair enough, if someone wants to evacuate at this stage, go for it. My knowledge is limited anyways.

[hipshot]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Sorry, I'm no export but how is Milton going to get shoved NE from that plot, looks more NW, what am I missing?

[cheezyWXguy]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

Agreed. In the cases you mentioned, the track actually deviated fairly little from what was expected, but because of the oblique angle of approach, this resulted in a significant change in landfall point. That amount of deviation with a more straight-on angle of approach would result in notably less deviation in landfall point.

[psyclone]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

It's quite rare to have a nearly perpendicular strike on the west coast. This storm...even if it begins to unravel as it nears the coast...will have traversed the entire length of the gulf building up seas and surge potential the whole time...then slamming that energy into a uniquely surge prone coast...I'm thinking this is a disaster in the making for someone..

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

GFS trough reaches in from the east coast to grab it and is influencing at 60 hours.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0518&fh=60

As always with these approaches to the US coast it becomes all about timing, it reaches right out and touches that trough. So that pulls it NE, then what causes the bend back to ENE just at or before landfall?

[eastcoastFL]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Sorry, I'm no export but how is Milton going to get shoved NE from that plot, looks more NW, what am I missing?

As Steve pointed out the trough over the south east pulls it NE

[BobHarlem]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

It's quite rare to have a nearly perpendicular strike on the west coast. This storm...even if it begins to unravel as it nears the coast...will have traversed the entire length of the gulf building up seas and surge potential the whole time...then slamming that energy into a uniquely surge prone coast...I'm thinking this is a disaster in the making for someone..

Notable perpendicular Tampa hit was the great 1848 Tampa Bay hurricane. That one cut a lot of new inlets and rearranged the geography, made all the old sea charts near useless.

[NAVAIDNICK]

Hey wxman57....talk us off the ledge

I do think it'll move inland to your south, but it could be close. Don't get off the ledge just yet.

Could you tell us what we might expect on the treasure Coast just north of Jupiter/WPB

NWS is only forecasting sustained winds of 24 mph with gusts up to 43 mph right now for Wednesday in Jupiter. That's the best anyone can tell you at this stage and you can expect it will likely change before Milton comes out of the basement, so continue monitoring. You can go to weather.gov enter and your zip code in the upper left then click on Hourly Weather Forecast. Then select the date/time for the forecast to start and it will graph the forecasted winds, gusts, and rain fall amounts for the 48 hours following the date/time selected. Between NWS, NHC, and the storm2k boards, you should have all the info you need to make a decision on what to do. Levi from Tropical Tidbits also does a daily YT video that is excellent at explaining the conditions and what drives the forecasts. The old advice of "running from water, hiding from wind" and ALWAYS planning for one category above what they are forecasting are pretty good rules of thumb. Best of luck to you and stay safe.

[Poonwalker]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

Do not forget high load extension cords. The ones for the lawn are not meant for high loads if you want to run a window ac or a fridge. Lights, tv and a fan will be fine.

They pointed out 14 guage lines. Said they would be fine. I’ll be running a fridge, freezer, fans and lights/TV. Also going to be sandbagging. It looks like I can handle around 15 foot surge. Anything more and the sandbags have to do their job hopefully. I can hide out on the second level as long as there’s still a roof.

[Gums]

Salute!

Well said, psych.

Folks that have not been in or near storm landfalls have a poor understanding of how the tidal surge works. Angle of impact, how long the storm has been "pushing" water, the speed of the storm, on the upwind side or downwind, and so forth.

I looked up the GIS maps and Ft Myers and Sarasota have many more parcels at low elevations than what I expected.

So get your gas and propane now! More beer is nice, but poptarts are great and do not need cooling or heating to ingest.

Gums sends from the Panhandle while watching this latest storm..

[eastcoastFL]

A couple observations from afar...

For years, I've created folders on my computer to save model runs, satellite loops, radar images and the like of significant tropical cyclones and severe weather/tornado outbreaks. I think this morning was the first time I preemptively titled the folder "Hurricane (name)" while the system was still a tropical depression.

I've noticed a lot of people throwing out the old "Well, storms always come into the west coast of Florida further south than originally expected" here and on other weather forums, citing events like Charley, Irma, and Ian. However, all of those were making a "right hook" on the recurve from a westward/northwestward track across the Straights or Caribbean. This is a much different setup and I think the conventional wisdom has to be thrown out.

It's quite rare to have a nearly perpendicular strike on the west coast. This storm...even if it begins to unravel as it nears the coast...will have traversed the entire length of the gulf building up seas and surge potential the whole time...then slamming that energy into a uniquely surge prone coast...I'm thinking this is a disaster in the making for someone..

Notable perpendicular Tampa hit was the great 1848 Tampa Bay hurricane. That one cut a lot of new inlets and rearranged the geography, made all the old sea charts near useless.

https://i.imgur.com/p6wYGQw.jpeg

I always wondered what kind of research goes into determining these ancient storm tracks.

[hipshot]

Looking at this map the models and track makes more sense now. He’s just going to sputter along for now and you can see once he gets near the Yucatán it will get pushed NE.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF

Sorry, I'm no export but how is Milton going to get shoved NE from that plot, looks more NW, what am I missing?

As Steve pointed out the trough over the south east pulls it NE

Isn't there a ridge between Milton and the trough in the upper midwest, where does it go?

[eastcoastFL]

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0530 PM EDT FRI 04 OCTOBER 2024
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 05/1100Z TO 06/1100Z OCTOBER 2024
TCPOD NUMBER.....24-126 CORRECTION

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO).....ADDED
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43
A. 06/1200Z
B. NOAA3 01HHA TDR
C. 06/0800Z
D. 22.0N 94.0W
E. 06/1000Z TO 06/1400Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR
H. WRA ACTIVATION

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST MISSION IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 22.5N 92.5W FOR 06/1800Z. (NO CHANGES)
B. POSSIBLE NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO SUSPECT AREA FOR 07/0000Z AND 07/1200Z, DEPARTING
KLAL AT 06/2000Z AND 07/0800Z, RESPECTIVELY. (CHANGED)

[cheezyWXguy]

Think we’re starting to see revolving convective bursts around the center, on the north side of the main blob. If so, that provides evidence for a fairly well organized low level core structure, which was hinted at in earlier microwave imagery. Milton may already be a bit stronger than it’s been letting on.