ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ConvergenceZone]

The track by the NHC looks like it shifted slightly North of Tampa, which is not preferred due to more Surge when storm is North of the city.

[shiftenter]

While it does say 110 mph without saying inland, i would like to point out that the center of the hurricane is “inland” just in a bay so it likely will have already been “inland” for about two hours or so just with the center still over water. So likely still landfalling as a major hurricane.

Indeed. As per the discussion: "The new intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one and in good agreement with the HCCA and IVCN aids."

[Travorum]

I am just glad Helene was so dry for us here in Northeast Florida. The ground has had a chance to dry out for a few weeks, after 14 inches of rain.

I wish the same were true for the Tampa Bay area. We'll likely have gotten close to 10+ inches of rainfall in the past week by the time Milton makes landfall. While this is forecasted to be fairly fast-moving across the peninsula, I am concerned about how many trees could fall on account of the ground being completely saturated here.

[Steve]

The track by the NHC looks like it shifted slightly North of Tampa, which is not preferred due to more Surge when storm is North of the city.

Word zone. And front quadrant. We don’t know yet what the structure will be hitting land but stay tuned close on that.

[psyclone]

Tampa's hurricane wind probs are up to 23%...43% for 50kt. That's scary high for so far out

[Travorum]

We got three successive full passes over three hours by the DMSP satellites, which has provided three clear SSMIS captures. In the succession between the three passes you can see convection wrapping around the south side of Milton even as the strength of that convection has waned over the past few hours.

[mpic]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

You probably already know this, but be sure to go ahead and do your generator break-in before the storm hits.

[gailwarning]

In 40 years i've lived by the " more than 4 days out" rule. If the NHC says it's coming into your location 4 days out, it's not. Will i be wrong ? So far over 40 years i haven't been mistaken. Maybe just dumb luck -

Don't think you're accounting for better, more accurate technology. They were pretty close with Helene as far as landfall goes. Saying Big Bend days before.

[CrazyC83]

Walt Disney World will be closed.

 https://x.com/SteveNorrisTV/status/1842740672157073574

That's not a real twitter account (it's a troll/parody/spoof account). Disney hasn't announced anything yet.

Walt Disney World in Orlando announced Saturday night that visitors “should expect park closures” due to Milton, a tropical storm set to strengthen into a hurricane that will impact Florida.

I'd assume it would be closed at least Wednesday and (depending on damage/track) Thursday as well, but I doubt they would announce it this far out. It usually only closes at sustained 40-45 mph winds (they never closed during Helene).

[Hypercane_Kyle]

A lot of moisture out front; usually a good sign that there's a lot of instability in its path.

[AxaltaRacing24]

In 40 years i've lived by the " more than 4 days out" rule. If the NHC says it's coming into your location 4 days out, it's not. Will i be wrong ? So far over 40 years i haven't been mistaken. Maybe just dumb luck -

Don't think you're accounting for better, more accurate technology. They were pretty close with Helene as far as landfall goes. Saying Big Bend days before.

That storm was quite a bit quicker with it's motion though. This one leaves a bit more room for error.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In 40 years i've lived by the " more than 4 days out" rule. If the NHC says it's coming into your location 4 days out, it's not. Will i be wrong ? So far over 40 years i haven't been mistaken. Maybe just dumb luck -

Don't think you're accounting for better, more accurate technology. They were pretty close with Helene as far as landfall goes. Saying Big Bend days before.

That storm was quite a bit quicker with it's motion though. This one leaves a bit more room for error.

The rate of speed looks identical to me. Clears the entire state of Florida across I4 in less than 6 hours. That's about 20-25mph, same as Helene.

[got ants?]

I managed to get a generator. They were flying off the shelf after a truck dropped them off at Home Depot. If we get a cat 3 direct hit I imagine there won’t be power here for weeks. Iam in zone C which has me really worried about flooding though. That said there is always the possibility this thing does hook a bit south. I have seen that countless times before.

You probably already know this, but be sure to go ahead and do your generator break-in before the storm hits.

Another tidbit...not sure what type of a/c you have, but a central can over whelm a generator. I have a brand new window shaker, only 500 it's, in my garage, for like 10 years. That and plywood, so I can open my bedroom window, and install. I've had a back up going on 30 years, not had to use it, but loaned it to friends, on condition they buy me a new one. It's a small price to pay and they were more than grateful.

[gailwarning]

This is my opinion, so take that for what it's worth...but if you are on the fence about whether to board up and leave...now is the time you need to make a decision. Tuesday will be too late and everyone else that failed to decide now will be in a mad rush to do just what you are doing trying to board up at the last minute. It is much better to board up and be ready to leave, giving yourself an extra day to get it done by making your decision now than find out at the last minute you are not prepared and there is nothing you can do and no where to go.
Now is the time...and time is running out. Why take a chance like that with your life and property? Don't be scared...be prepared!

For the benefit of people who might be heading up to Georgia, what's the status? Are there still power outages? My aunt's in Augusta, and from what I've heard, some areas still don't have power.

[Travorum]

Don't think you're accounting for better, more accurate technology. They were pretty close with Helene as far as landfall goes. Saying Big Bend days before.

That storm was quite a bit quicker with it's motion though. This one leaves a bit more room for error.

The rate of speed looks identical to me. Clears the entire state of Florida across I4 in less than 6 hours. That's about 20-25mph, same as Helene.

It's the time up until landfall that is further away though. When Helene was declared a tropical storm there was 2.5 days forecast until landfall, that was well within the three day cone and all the increased confidence that comes with that timeframe. Meanwhile Milton was declared a tropical storm 4.5 days prior to estimated landfall. Just based on time until landfall and how track error is associated with time there is a lot more room for error with Milton than Helene at equivalent points in their development. Rate of speed as it approaches and crosses Florida will be quite quick but it has a good 2 extra days of slow forward speed in the west gulf compared to Helene, which was moving from its initial advisory.

It's entirely possible that the NHC nail the point of landfall at the center point of the cone just as they did with Helene, but right now the cone is much wider across Florida than Helene's ever was on account of the extra time until landfall.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

That storm was quite a bit quicker with it's motion though. This one leaves a bit more room for error.

The rate of speed looks identical to me. Clears the entire state of Florida across I4 in less than 6 hours. That's about 20-25mph, same as Helene.

It's the time up until landfall that is further away though. When Helene was declared a tropical storm there was 2.5 days forecast until landfall, that was well within the three day cone and all the increased confidence that comes with that timeframe. Meanwhile Milton was declared a tropical storm 4.5 days prior to estimated landfall. Just based on time until landfall and how track error is associated with time there is a lot more room for error with Milton than Helene at equivalent points in their development. Rate of speed as it approaches and crosses Florida will be quite quick but it has a good 2 extra days of slow forward speed in the west gulf compared to Helene, which was moving from its initial advisory.

Counter-example - Idalia. It was also about 4 days away when it was first named and it hit about where the NHC was calling it.

I think the heightened uncertainty here is the lack of recon data. Helene and Idalia already had data ingested at this point. I think when they ingest that data into the models a lot more questions will be answered.

[shiftenter]

This is my opinion, so take that for what it's worth...but if you are on the fence about whether to board up and leave...now is the time you need to make a decision. Tuesday will be too late and everyone else that failed to decide now will be in a mad rush to do just what you are doing trying to board up at the last minute. It is much better to board up and be ready to leave, giving yourself an extra day to get it done by making your decision now than find out at the last minute you are not prepared and there is nothing you can do and no where to go.
Now is the time...and time is running out. Why take a chance like that with your life and property? Don't be scared...be prepared!

For the benefit of people who might be heading up to Georgia, what's the status? Are there still power outages? My aunt's in Augusta, and from what I've heard, some areas still don't have power.

Take a look at https://poweroutage.us/area/state/georgia

[TheAustinMan]

Additional microwave satellite imagery from the COWVR instrument onboard the International Space Station from earlier this evening suggests that Milton may have already closed off an eyewall in the lower troposphere. We'll have to wait and see if strong thunderstorm activity is able to build that core upwards, but that looks pretty sound in the lower levels.

Source: US Naval Research Laboratory (https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcweb/)

[Hurricane Mike]

Midnight video update for the night owls
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PtwxCkxjhlU

[Poonwalker]

Do not forget high load extension cords. The ones for the lawn are not meant for high loads if you want to run a window ac or a fridge. Lights, tv and a fan will be fine.

They pointed out 14 guage lines. Said they would be fine. I’ll be running a fridge, freezer, fans and lights/TV. Also going to be sandbagging. It looks like I can handle around 15 foot surge. Anything more and the sandbags have to do their job hopefully. I can hide out on the second level as long as there’s still a roof.[/quote

14 is okay if they are not oo long, but 12 is better for ac. Get one of these just in case and return it if you do not need it. Works really well to run a line from gen into the home and delivery is tomorrow!

https://www.amazon.com/Extension-Waterproof-Flexible-Cold-Resistant-HUANCHAIN/dp/B09WR4ZHRD/ref=asc_df_B09WR4ZHRD/?tag=hyprod-20&linkCode=df0&hvadid=703628499311&hvpos=&hvnetw=g&hvrand=18332521797519710562&hvpone=&hvptwo=&hvqmt=&hvdev=c&hvdvcmdl=&hvlocint=&hvlocphy=1015067&hvtargid=pla-2198403582369&mcid=eed2bff072de355893456a552a70a84e&th=1

Thanks. I ordered that. I just realized I also have a standing window AC unit stored I can use.