ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[norva13x]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

[Travorum]

The rate of speed looks identical to me. Clears the entire state of Florida across I4 in less than 6 hours. That's about 20-25mph, same as Helene.

It's the time up until landfall that is further away though. When Helene was declared a tropical storm there was 2.5 days forecast until landfall, that was well within the three day cone and all the increased confidence that comes with that timeframe. Meanwhile Milton was declared a tropical storm 4.5 days prior to estimated landfall. Just based on time until landfall and how track error is associated with time there is a lot more room for error with Milton than Helene at equivalent points in their development. Rate of speed as it approaches and crosses Florida will be quite quick but it has a good 2 extra days of slow forward speed in the west gulf compared to Helene, which was moving from its initial advisory.

Counter-example - Idalia. It was also about 4 days away when it was first named and it hit about where the NHC was calling it.

I think the heightened uncertainty here is the lack of recon data. Helene and Idalia already had data ingested at this point. I think when they ingest that data into the models a lot more questions will be answered.

This is a very good point- Idalia is a great example of the NHC pretty much nailing landfall location on the first advisory (I would say Helene was as well). For reference, Idalia and Milton's initial advisories:

Idalia:	Milton:

I will note that Idalia was forecast to make landfall about half a day sooner than Milton at the first forecast - Idalia's 4 day forecast point is inland in Georgia while Milton's is still offshore of the Florida coast. All I'm saying is that Milton's range of landfall possibilities on the NHC cone is slightly larger than any prior storm in recent history (Idalia, Debby, Helene, etc.) on account of a very slightly slower overall approach to landfall. I do agree with you completely that outside of the statistically standardized NHC cone there is a greater amount of uncertainty here with Milton on account of the lack of recon data.

And actually, now that I do look at the rate of acceleration on approach to the coast I would say that the NHC forecast rate of acceleration is pretty similar to Helene or Idalia, 10-15mph in the days prior to landfall accelerating to 20-25mph in the immediate leadup to landfall. I guess the notable difference I am noting here is that Milton has about 24 hours of development while meandering over the west Gulf before it really gets moving, as opposed to Helene or Idalia that were progressing from the get-go on a shorter timeframe.

Ultimately, it's entirely possible that the NHC nails the point of landfall at the center point of the cone just as they did with Helene, but right now the cone is much wider across Florida than Helene's ever was on account of a bit of extra time until landfall.

[TomballEd]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

Too soon to tell, Milton will be doing a delicate dance between strong upper level flow that could ventilate the storm and keep it strong and upper level flow pushing much drier air in front the W.

[FLpanhandle91]

Research indicates that small storms with compact cores over anamolously warm SSTs are the ones that rapidly intensify. If he stays south of that shear, look out.

[BobHarlem]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

The hurricane models show it getting hammered by shear about 6-12 hours before landfall, however it gets it really strong before hand and it'll have the whole run of the gulf to build up a mound of surge, which Helene didn't have (although Helene had a tremendous windfield). It may weaken the winds at landfall, or may not. But the surge momentum will be there regardless. Won't be enough time to significantly reduce impacts, however. It's going to be precariously on the edge of being aided or hampered by the shear, so I wouldn't count on it. East coast surge will exist north of the exit point into the Atlantic, but nowhere near the magnitude of the west coast.

[TomballEd]

Standard IR2 satellite imagery looked terrible, nothing like what the microwave imagery showed under the hood. Until the last frame. Bed time, but I think the IR loops posted here in a few hours will have some very cold cloud tops.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1842787377968005425

[WaveBreaking]

Standard IR2 satellite imagery looked terrible, nothing like what the microwave imagery showed under the hood. Until the last frame. Bed time, but I think the IR loops posted here in a few hours will have some very cold cloud tops.

yep.

[Sciencerocks]

Milton should be about the same size as Charley or Andrew.....Bad but not as bad as Helene or Katrina moving into Tampa bay.

[SconnieCane]

Milton should be about the same size as Charley or Andrew.....Bad but not as bad as Helene or Katrina moving into Tampa bay.

Initially...hurricane models suggest it will expand by quite a lot.

[ColdFront77]

The rate of speed looks identical to me. Clears the entire state of Florida across I4 in less than 6 hours. That's about 20-25mph, same as Helene.

Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 11:00pm EDT

Oct 5 at 11pm ET 22.9N 95.1W
Oct 6 at .8am ET 23.0N 94.6W...2.75 mph
Oct 6 at .8pm ET 23.0N 93.5W...5.83 mph
Oct 7 at .8am ET 23.1N 92.1W...7.42 mph
Oct 7 at .8pm ET 23.3N 90.5W...8.50 mph
Oct 8 at .8am ET 23.9N 88.6W...10.58 mph
Oct 8 at .8pm ET 25.3N 86.4W...14.08 mph
Oct 9 at .8pm ET 28.2N 82.3W...13.42 mph
Oct 10 at 8pm ET 30.8N 76.1W...17.21 mph

Saturday, October 5, 2024 at 5:00pm EDT

Oct 5 at 5pm ET 22.7N 95.5W
Oct 6 at 2am ET 22.9N 95.0W...2.92 mph
Oct 6 at 2pm ET 23.0N 94.1W...4.83 mph
Oct 7 at 2am ET 23.0N 92.8W...6.92 mph
Oct 7 at 2pm ET 23.1N 91.2W...8.50 mph
Oct 8 at 2am ET 23.8N 89.3W...10.83 mph
Oct 8 at 2pm ET 24.8N 87.2W...12.42 mph
Oct 9 at 2pm ET 27.7N 83.0W...13.67 mph
Oct 10 at 2pm ET 30.4N 77.0W...16.96 mph

[chaser1]

Milton should be about the same size as Charley or Andrew.....Bad but not as bad as Helene or Katrina moving into Tampa bay.

Also, Milton is projected to move across Central Florida with the same 20-25 mph forward motion that caused Charlie to carry strong winds into the Orlando area before the storm significantly weakened. In fact, Orlando, Winter Park, Longwood ,and Altamonte Springs all reported wind gusts between 90 - 110 mph from Charlie. This could be a repeat.

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1842787377968005425

The bad news is that, unlike John (cited in Eric Webb's tweet), Milton has way more time to intensify.

[Rail Dawg]

As always am impressed with the level of knowledge on this board.

This thing will be a smaller buzz-saw although those are more often seen in the Caribbean heading westbound.

Chuck

[wx98]

As always am impressed with the level of knowledge on this board.

This thing will be a smaller buzz-saw although those are more often seen in the Caribbean heading westbound.

Chuck

Hi Rail Dawg! Was just thinking about you earlier and wondering if you’d be around for this one.

NHC holding serve for now:

1:00 AM CDT Sun Oct 6
Location: 23.0°N 95.1°W
Moving: NNE at 4 mph
Min pressure: 1005 mb
Max sustained: 45 mph

[Orlando]

Milton should be about the same size as Charley or Andrew.....Bad but not as bad as Helene or Katrina moving into Tampa bay.

Also, Milton is projected to move across Central Florida with the same 20-25 mph forward motion that caused Charlie to carry strong winds into the Orlando area before the storm significantly weakened. In fact, Orlando, Winter Park, Longwood ,and Altamonte Springs all reported wind gusts between 90 - 110 mph from Charlie. This could be a repeat.

Will you be boarding up your house?

[otowntiger]

Is there any chance it will weaken before landfall?

Yes- all or most of the hurricane models are showing marked decrease in intensity prior to landfall. We’ll see if that holds up.

[Laser30033003]

I'm in Seminole and the Hurricane blinds are up....

[chaser1]

Milton should be about the same size as Charley or Andrew.....Bad but not as bad as Helene or Katrina moving into Tampa bay.

Also, Milton is projected to move across Central Florida with the same 20-25 mph forward motion that caused Charlie to carry strong winds into the Orlando area before the storm significantly weakened. In fact, Orlando, Winter Park, Longwood ,and Altamonte Springs all reported wind gusts between 90 - 110 mph from Charlie. This could be a repeat.

Will you be boarding up your house?

Nope, but will likely protect my west side windows most at risk of breaking oak tree limbs. Will definitely remove any outdoor items and carefully plan how I position mine and my daughters' cars. Right now, I might estimate sustained 60 - 75 mph as a potential direct impact. Most homes in my neighborhood do not have hurricane shutters whereas both of my prior homes in Miami and Pembroke Pines did. What about yourself?

[chaser1]

I'm in Seminole and the Hurricane blinds are up....

Seminole county? Or Seminole, near Tampa? If the latter, use them if ya got 'em!