ATL: MILTON - Models

[BobHarlem]

Not going to post the image, but the 0z GFS is adding insult to injury in the long range (See hours 282/288) but that belongs in the main global model thread.

[skillz305]

Not going to post the image, but the 0z GFS is adding insult to injury in the long range (See hours 282/288) but that belongs in the main global model thread.

Wow…. That is absurd

[Poonwalker]

Decent shift south, from Citrus County to mid-Pinellas. Still not good.

Seems pretty accurate, If you punch in the lat and long for right at or around landfall it's very close to st pete beach and mediera beach. Which is horrible for this area. Historic Storm Surge and winds this area has likely never seen in recorded history. Not looking forward to this but the models have been fairly consistent for quite a few runs now. The NHC cone seems a lot bigger than what the models seem to be hinting. I really want the Hurricane Hunters data tomorrow to see what changes if anything.

Would a Pinellas or a Pasco landfall be worse for the area?

Iam going to say at that angle the current GFS is a worst case scenario. That’s threading the needle though as any slight shift south from there is going to lessen the impact. Right now I’ll take the south shifts

[caneman]

Would a Pinellas or a Pasco landfall be worse for the area?

Pasco as it would be close enough to get the worst of the wind and would maximize surge.

Honestly, That is like picking your most favorite turd that you have to eat! lol Niether option is great and both expose Tampa bay to tremendous amounts of surge with high winds on top of the surge. Most ideal for Tampa would be a track down towards Ft. Meyers or a track way up near cedar key. Any in the middle are going to be varying degrees of some pretty intense weather.

Even Bradenton or Sarasota would lessen the surge for Tampa Bay.

[psyclone]

North side will be the wet side...South side surge side. Pick your poison.

[Pelicane]

HAFS-B went nuts again. Drops it down to the sub-900s like it did with Helene.

I don't recall the HAFS models being so aggressive with storms in prior years, even without recon data. Wonder why it's doing it now for these two storms.

[SconnieCane]

HAFS-B went nuts again. Drops it down to the sub-900s like it did with Helene.

I don't recall the HAFS models being so aggressive with storms in prior years, even without recon data. Wonder why it's doing it now for these two storms.

Oh ****, I was just watching the 0Z HAFS-A run and I thought 916 MB at FH069 was bad. HAFS-B: "Hold my beer."

[Keldeo1997]

HAFS-B wants Gilbert 2.0 in the Gulf.

[Kazmit]

Welcome back RIta.

[Teban54]

Welcome back RIta.

https://i.ibb.co/dj5C3NC/hafsb-mslp-wind-14-L-27.png
https://i.ibb.co/rZLsgwB/hafsb-sat-IR-14-L-28.png

What's the record for 10m wind speed from any HAFS-B run? The frame just before the one you posted showed 167.7 kt. Even with Helene, the model's wind speeds were nowhere near as high.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON joining in at 917mb so far...
Winds aren't nearly as high as the HAFS

[ElectricStorm]

Massive weakening before landfall on the HAFS-B, from Cat 5 to Cat 1 in 9 hours

[Flwxguy86]

HAFS-B is on crack, No other model shows that kinda strength. I can't imagine the kind of storm surge a storm that powerful would push out ahead of it even with it weakening before landfall. If I see it get this low I'd be very very very surpised.

[chaser1]

Welcome back RIta.

https://i.ibb.co/dj5C3NC/hafsb-mslp-wind-14-L-27.png
https://i.ibb.co/rZLsgwB/hafsb-sat-IR-14-L-28.png

That's just insane.

[Beef Stew]

For any of these extremely explosive solutions to verify, it looks like we'd need to start seeing explosive intensification by tomorrow evening. Milton looks to be quite a small system, which could be either its boon or burden. On one hand, it would aid in such explosive intensification should conditions be as optimal as suggested at this point in the western GOM, but on the other, anything that's not evident (unforeseen dry air intrusion or shear) could wreck Milton's internal structure far more significantly than it would to a larger, more robust storm.

[Blown Away]

00z Canadian… Ft. Myers area…

[otowntiger]

Massive weakening before landfall on the HAFS-B, from Cat 5 to Cat 1 in 9 hours

Yes all the hurricane models seem to be doing this. I think that a great sign that it seems a good chance that intense winds may not be as much of a problem as they might’ve been, especially inland. Unfortunately the surge could still be massive due to the power it would have in the open water thereby generating the waves and push of water.

[NFLnut]

Not going to post the image, but the 0z GFS is adding insult to injury in the long range (See hours 282/288) but that belongs in the main global model thread.

I was looking at that storm last week. And then, Milton decided to butt in.

We don't need two major in two weeks!

[Blown Away]

00z ICON… Cape Coral area…

[Blown Away]

00z EURO… Decent S shift, now coming in S of Tampa compared to 12z…