2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

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Hurrilurker
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2181 Postby Hurrilurker » Fri Oct 04, 2024 5:25 pm

al78 wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Looks like the UK is likely to see some pretty serious impacts.


The UK is seeing some serious impacts from the over-hyped and ridiculous click-bait media headlines that always pop up every time the remnants of a hurricane move across the UK.

https://www.gbnews.com/weather/uk-weath ... rk-britain

Obviously we don't know what will verify yet but what we're seeing is no joke. One run shown above has a ~980 storm hovering near and over Ireland for several days, another shows the UK being hit by a ~980 storm followed a just couple days later by a ~950 storm. Most show some impacts from multiple systems in a short period of time, which would severely raise flooding risks. And unlike the US Gulf Coast states, many there are probably not hyper-vigilant about tracking Atlantic storms on a daily basis.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2182 Postby tiger_deF » Sat Oct 05, 2024 12:06 pm

12z GFS has another weak storm off of Africa, another potentially subtropical storm in the Atlantic, and a large subtropical-type storm in the gulf moving to FL in two weeks. Considering that for most of August and September the models were entirely quiet this has been a legendary late-season awakening. Hoping that Milton is the last US impact
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2183 Postby weeniepatrol » Sat Oct 05, 2024 5:43 pm

18z GFS is doing a happy hour.

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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2184 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:38 pm

0z gfs showing this sneaking in post milton

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2185 Postby AnnularCane » Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:40 pm

BobHarlem wrote:0z gfs showing this sneaking in post milton

https://i.imgur.com/IL47woS.png



Kind of reminds me of the initial fantasy GFS runs for Milton.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2186 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:44 pm

"How many retired names will you have, 2024?"

2024: "Yes."
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2187 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 05, 2024 11:53 pm

No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2188 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:01 am

BobHarlem wrote:No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/8Oi3Zz9.png


If that happened verbatim, I honestly think there will be a mass exodus from Tampa and quite a humanitarian crisis, the likes of which I'd rather not even ruminate on at this point.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2189 Postby weeniepatrol » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:04 am

Alrighty then. That's genuinely the worst model run I've ever seen.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2190 Postby CrazyC83 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:22 am

Category5Kaiju wrote:
BobHarlem wrote:No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/8Oi3Zz9.png


If that happened verbatim, I honestly think there will be a mass exodus from Tampa and quite a humanitarian crisis, the likes of which I'd rather not even ruminate on at this point.


Welcome back to 2004 in Florida in that case...
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2191 Postby Beef Stew » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:27 am

That run would be disastrous, to put it lightly. That being said, I'd bet large sums of money on that outcome not panning out. However, it does seem like we will continue to have to closely monitor the SW Car for more potential CAG genesis closely for the rest of this month.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2192 Postby Teban54 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:32 am

Remember the early GFS runs hinting at what eventually became Milton shooting the Yucatan Channel as a hurricane (while Helene was in the Caribbean), where people had to say "this is NOT Helene"?

And now we're saying "this is NOT Milton".
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2193 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:51 am

Hello Tampa! Meet my big sister Nadine :cheesy:
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2194 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 06, 2024 5:31 am

BobHarlem wrote:No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/8Oi3Zz9.png


Please stop 2024, we understand, we won't make fun of you anymore.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2195 Postby Travorum » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:42 am

06z GFS has this system too, and it looks like its hunting for every possible landfall it can make. Gets Cozumel/Cancun, swings east to hit western Cuba, then up into Naples and across Florida before its final landfall north of Wilmington.

Image
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2196 Postby mantis83 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 12:13 pm

12Z GFS pushes this east, well east of south florida...
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2197 Postby Category5Kaiju » Sun Oct 06, 2024 5:57 pm

The recent GFS is fairly confident about another monstrous WCAR hurricane, but it seems to follow a Michelle-like path and miss Florida to the east due to strong late-season troughing. Thankfully, Florida doesn't get the brunt of it, but it also doesn't look pretty for Western Cuba and the Bahamas....
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2198 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:16 pm

mantis83 wrote:12Z GFS pushes this east, well east of south florida...



Well FINALLY some good news, at least for Florida anyway.
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2199 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:19 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:
mantis83 wrote:12Z GFS pushes this east, well east of south florida...



Well FINALLY some good news, at least for Florida anyway.


Way too far out to take ANY individual storm location / track seriously. At that range, it’s all about signals…
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Re: 2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

#2200 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:19 pm

BobHarlem wrote:No thanks. (To be clear this is AFTER Milton) on the 0z GFS.
https://i.imgur.com/8Oi3Zz9.png


The models seem determined to hit Tampa this year one way or another.
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