ATL: MILTON - Models

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xironman
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#401 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:44 am

NDG wrote:I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif


It is a bit small, but once it fills in the SE side it will be close to stretching across the BOC
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#402 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:45 am

NDG wrote:I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif


Agree. I see many people giving credit to ICON for Helene but in my mind it was the GFS that was the most accurate. It had very few swings unlike the Icon that had wild swings and adjustments. I haven't seen a verification for this just personal observation.
Last edited by caneman on Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:05 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#403 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:46 am

NDG wrote:I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif


I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#404 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:47 am

Image
06z Hafs-B… @50 mile South shift in landfall point from 00z…
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#405 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:50 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
NDG wrote:I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif


I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.


The hurricane models who so far have had it becoming stronger would need to be taken into account. As a stronger storm goes more Northerly.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#406 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:52 am

Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/7YVKNxkz/IMG-0533.jpg [/url]
06z Hafs-B… @50 mile South shift in landfall point from 00z…


Wacked once again by dry air just before landfall. Timing will be everything
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#407 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:53 am

6z hmon is unchanged in landfall point from 0z, Crystal River. Pattern of stronger storm more north remains in the 6z runs still.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#408 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:56 am

0Z UKMET was way S into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. Albeit weaker and probably a reason. INot sure if I saw any mention of it so here it is.
Last edited by toad strangler on Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:59 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#409 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:56 am

HAFS-a with a slight right/south shift also from Homosassa at 0z to Tarpon Springs at 6z. Rapid weakening right before landfall here also.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#410 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 06, 2024 6:58 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
NDG wrote:I would not be throwing out the GFS out the window, just about nailed it current position of 22.5 N, pressure off by just a few mb which is not abnormal when handling a small storm like Milton. It shows steadily strengthening during the next 24 hrs, dropping down to the lower 970s mb by tomorrow morning, which will probably be down to at least the 960s mb by tomorrow morning.
GFS has the best track record within 72-84 hrs in the GOM during the past two hurricanes.

https://i.imgur.com/luorKkt.gif


I'm expecting a southward shift at 12z in the GFS with the ensembles trending that way. It's currently the last global onboard with the Tampa landfall.


The rest of the global models show Milton much weaker thus taking a more southerly track. The only way the GFS shifts south with them if it also shows Milton weakening fairly fast way before making landfall.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#411 Postby toad strangler » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:09 am

6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#412 Postby Cat5James » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:13 am

toad strangler wrote:6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol

Ill cheer for this scenario as well. I'm dreading what might take place with storm surge if Milton does not make landfall south of tampa bay
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#413 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:13 am

toad strangler wrote:6z ICON very similar to 0Z UKMET into Fort Myers / Cape Coral. I guess these two are the S most of the globals?? Again, weaker. I think I’m gonna root for these two lol


Lets hope the gfs follows which means weaker and would be good news for Florida. Having said that, I just don't ever trust the UKMET and contrary to what some say, the Icon had big swings with Helene so we will see.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#414 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:16 am

06Z NAVGEM, near Cedar Key:

As far as where it landfalls on the west coast: Weaker means more south, stronger more north. The ECMWF, UKMET, and ICON (European-based models) might be too weak, so they go south of the Tampa area. The American-based models GFS, NAVGEM, and hurricane models are much stronger so go into Tampa or north. A blend of them all is probably the likely scenario.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#415 Postby BobHarlem » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:24 am

6z HWRF, right up Tampa Bay, slight shift right/south from 0z which was Treasure Island, and 6z then exits into the Atlantic near Oak Hill/New Smyrna Beach.

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Last edited by BobHarlem on Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:29 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#416 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:25 am

On those models that show a weaker storm, how much weaker? Still a hurricane?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#417 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:28 am

Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#418 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:30 am

Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Euro looks a little too far south in the short-term and deviates outside of the cone even, nearly hits the Yucatan.


Anyone have thr 06z Euro and ensembles beyind 72?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#419 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:31 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:On those models that show a weaker storm, how much weaker? Still a hurricane?


UKMET and Canadian only as a strong tropical storm, ICON only hurricane force winds at wind gusts.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#420 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 06, 2024 7:31 am

06z HWRF considerably slower than other models with Thursday landfall.
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