ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[underthwx]

Storms moving up against a jet stream always track right of the forecast (Francine, Helene, Charley, etc). Consensus (green) and corrected consensus (gray) are now well south of NHC's track (maroon). Look for a gradual NHC track shift south of TPA. They may not do it this morning, but it's coming. Meanwhile, for those of you in Tampa, the SLOSH map below indicates what kind of surge you would see with NHC's current track. Over 18ft into NE Tampa Bay. You definitely want it going in to the south.

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/12ZConsensus.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

https://wxman57.com/images/SLOSHCat3.JPG

NHC is north of almost all the ensembles.

https://i.postimg.cc/3xMVMWn3/IMG-9571.jpg

The ICON track as of now looks good, intensity and track make sense.

Do yall anticipate nudges in the forecast track to occur throughout the day today?.....considering the fact that Milton's structure will expand...resulting in a more widespread event for much of the Florida Peninsula.....even Miami is displaying tropical storm conditions are possible later this week....forecasters across the state must find it frustrating not to be able to committ to a forecast for their area of responsibility...due to track fluctuations....tough to forecast...

[tronbunny]

As I type this right now, Governor DeSantis is talking about the 24/7 effort to clear debris pickups before this new storm.
He expects us to have much more damage across Central West Coast Florida.

Be prepared for many more power outages across Central Florida simply due to population density.

This is a really tough forecast, and it involves the Bay Area with a possible major.

What a nightmare for emergency preparations folks, and the residents flooded by Helene.

The barrier islands are still a mess. Everyone’s trash is on the curbs right now turning to mold and getting rained on. It’s a horrible situation about to get worse.

I remember being in Cocoa Beach in 2004, after Frances did some damage there and almost everyones front yard was full of trash and debris when Jeanne became a threat.

Brevard county did a great job of having crews almost 24/7 collecting trash and debris before Jeanne impacted us.

Hopefully they are doing that as we speak...but obviously the damage from Helene is much worse and I dont see how they will be able to fully pickup all the debris before Helene.

I think we all hope the storm stays south, despite seeing in a much bigger impact for those of us living in South and southwest Florida.

[GCANE]

Starting to see continuous lightning strikes in the core.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Starting to see continuous lightning strikes in the core.

Really popping off now! We’ll have a hurricane shortly.

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to see continuous lightning strikes in the core.

Really popping off now! We’ll have a hurricane shortly.

Yeah this burst is in the northern eyewall, should help to symmetrize the core wind field since that was the weakest part found by recon.

[got ants?]

I've seen a few posts mention Milton weakening before landfall. Can someone explain to me why? Will there be shear? Or something else?

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1842935881994486141

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

I've seen a few posts mention Milton weakening before landfall. Can someone explain to me why? Will there be shear? Or something else?

Yes, shear. Although the worst of the danger is probably storm surge so a little weakening at the last minute won’t help much.

[tolakram]

I've seen a few posts mention Milton weakening before landfall. Can someone explain to me why? Will there be shear? Or something else?

Running into a high shear zone of a cold front. Timing and location tricky with Milton. How strong will it get before landfall, if/when it will run into the shear, how bad will it be at landfall. People on the west coast of Florida need to be prepared.

[kassi]

When I click on any of these links it takes me to this page:

This Connection Is Not Private
This website may be impersonating “wxman57.com” to steal your personal or financial information. You should go back to the previous page.

Has this happened to anyone else? I really want to see wxman’s images.

It appears that S2K doesn't approve of my GoDaddy account. That started a year or so ago. I don't know if any of the "server people" can fix that. It may not be the S2K server, could be your internet provider's server. Some can see the images.

Nah it's because your site doesn't have a security certificate, I can't even access it on my phone it's blocked for safety reasons.

Same here. I don't have the option to ignore it.

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[wxman57]

Recon supports 45 kts now. One FL wind of 54 kts but that doesn't support more than 45 kts.

[FLpanhandle91]

KBRO is able to see the upper levels of the core and it looks like there are 55k ft+ tops right over the center

[Poonwalker]

Although I think this will go more south Iam concerned about the actual strength it achieves on approach. The southern solution doesn’t seem to capture a very strong storm. Hafs and GFS are the northerly ones and have a more robust system. Iam thinking Bradenton to Sarasota for this one.

[Travorum]

NHC put it at 55kts for the 11am, forecast peak up to 110kts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

[GCANE]

Seeing a warm-core signature on IR next to a hot tower

[Pasmorade]

Recon supports 45 kts now. One FL wind of 54 kts but that doesn't support more than 45 kts.

And the NHC chose the FL wind...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon supports 45 kts now. One FL wind of 54 kts but that doesn't support more than 45 kts.

Probably 55mph but given that's between 45 and 50 knots, NHC went with 50 knots.

[johngaltfla]

NHC put it at 55kts for the 11am, forecast peak up to 110kts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.4N 94.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 22.2N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 22.2N 92.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.5N 90.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.5N 88.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.7N 86.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 29.0N 79.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 31.0N 72.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Current path is right down my throat.

No bueno.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/vaGjWQs.gif

source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

I believe the technical term for this is "poppin off"