ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[wxman57]

As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

The storm should then turn northeastward and
accelerate on Tuesday and Wednesday toward the Florida Peninsula.
As a result of this re-positioning and initial motion, there's been
a southward change to most of the guidance this morning. The new
NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the
guidance trend continues.

I think it is worth emphasizing that the average track error at 72 hours is about 75 miles. That's the difference between the mouth of Tampa Bay and Fort Myers.

[Travorum]

TDR data illustrates the current wind field asymmetry well. That band wrapping around the north of the core on radar and the resulting convection we've seen on IR should be doing a lot to symmetrize that wind field right about now.

[psyclone]

That's a big southward adjustment for one forecast cycle. I'm expecting more. Venice now has the highest hurricane wind probs. When they say a hurricane is coming to Tampa...get out of Punta Gorda? Is that semi tongue in cheek axiom about to be proved again? I suspect yes but time will tell...

[NDG]

Latest forecast track by the NHC did the same thing with Francine when the recon found the LLC further NW thus the early tropical models shifted west towards SW LA, putting a lot of SE LA out of the cone. The GFS stuck to its forecast of landfall in SE LA in the longer range.
06z GFS was spot on with its forecast of Milton being further south this morning but still showing landfall near Tampa Bay.

[eastcoastFL]

Milton is starting to look really good on visible. Hot towers popping up all around, good banding to be north and south. He getting a nice little structure in order.

[TampaWxLurker]

Being in the Tampa area, if I have to choose between the southerly path where we get the bad weather on the north side of the storm, versus the direct hit path where we get 18-20 ft of surge up the bay...

I'll take the bad weather, ten times out of ten.

And this storm looks to be moving west to east at landfall. Or west to ENE. The bad weather would move past us quicker than the standard Irma/Ian/Charlie path of south to northeast where the storm moves towards and past us and we stay on the west side of the storm for hours.

But someone is going to get bad effects further south. No one gets unscathed. The West Coast of the state is a crowded place.

[underthwx]

The latest NHC update confirms for now what I hoped would not happen...intensity is up to 125 mph...the track has been nudged a bit southward it appears....Milton will make its presence known over a wide area of Florida.....today will be a very busy day for forecasters...

[chaser1]

Boy, this one is posing some pretty tricky range of scenarios. The rapid deepening that the HAFS forecast is "abrupt" however the 70 mb rise from weakening over a 30 hr. period is just as perplexing. Where this will be of far less consequence in terms of storm surge, the difference that the potential range in strength for inland winds is monumental. Both HAFS models seem to bring the storm in later then prior forecasts. ICON and GFS are at least 12 hours faster and more consistent with prior model runs in terms of timing. Clearly one thing seems to be the most important here. A faster or sooner landfall will bring stronger winds to mainland Florida wherever landfall will occur. I trust the HAFS models in terms of intensity however would be wary of having as much confidence in their track solutions. Lets see whether GFS and ICON seem to delay landfall over the next few model runs, or stick to a mid-day to late Wednesday landfall. That alone might be as much an indicator of how much weakening will have occurred at the point of (wind) impact.

[eastcoastFL]

Didn’t expect this in our local forecast but it’s a ways out

Wednesday Night

Wednesday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77.

Low: 77 °F

Hurricane
Conditions
Possible

[StPeteMike]

Latest forecast track by the NHC did the same thing with Francine when the recon found the LLC further NW thus the early tropical models shifted west towards SW LA, putting a lot of SE LA out of the cone. The GFS stuck to its forecast of landfall in SE LA in the longer range.
06z GFS was spot on with its forecast of Milton being further south this morning but still showing landfall near Tampa Bay.

GFS I feel like was very good with Helene. I know that it has had some issues in the past, but Helene was a real good performance with the GFS.

[ColdMiser123]

There is a similar dynamic to Ian that will be going on with Milton - due to the angle of approach from the west.

The farther south this makes landfall, the less time for weakening before it does though. May make a difference for intensity.

[skillz305]

Vero Beach here, although on the east coast, the writing seems to be on the wall now, for at least somewhat Hurricane impacts. Stay prepared and cautious to all, regardless of location.

[NDG]

12z ICON stronger and shifted to the north towards Manatee/Sarasota County.

[underthwx]

Didn’t expect this in our local forecast but it’s a ways out

Wednesday Night

Wednesday Night: Hurricane conditions possible. A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 77.

Low: 77 °F

Hurricane
Conditions
Possible

Yes.....with Milton expanding its size as it tracks across the Gulf....I feel that much of Florida will recieve impacts of varying degrees....which mandates everyone in Florida prepare as best they can....its vital to prepare now....

[StPeteMike]

12z ICON stronger and shifted to the north towards Manatee/Sarasota County.

The whole time NHC was saying north, ICON said south. And now that the NHC says a little south, ICON goes north. Really ICON?!?

[caneman]

12z ICON stronger and shifted to the north towards Manatee/Sarasota County.

Oh boy

[Weathertracker96]

Vero Beach here, although on the east coast, the writing seems to be on the wall now, for at least somewhat Hurricane impacts. Stay prepared and cautious to all, regardless of location.

Vero resident here too. I was just about to make the same post. With the angle it’s coming in, seems like tropical storm/ hurricane conditions are looking more possible. I do wonder though how rain would be on the southern side of this. I hear about dry air wrapping around.

[xironman]

Meanwhile the BOC buoy is tanking

[underthwx]

Im quoting from the latest NHC Advisory...

The new NHC forecast is adjusted south of the previous one, especially early
on, and further southward adjustments could be required if the guidance
trend continues

So....Southern Floridians must pay attention to updates and prepare accordingly.....