ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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fsucory08
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#621 Postby fsucory08 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:26 am

Port Saint Lucie checking in. Lots of people out buying stuff today. Worried about further southern shifts. Family and I have most of what we need already but we are out getting a few things too.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#622 Postby caneman » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:27 am

StPeteMike wrote:
NDG wrote:12z ICON stronger and shifted to the north towards Manatee/Sarasota County.

The whole time NHC was saying north, ICON said south. And now that the NHC says a little south, ICON goes north. Really ICON?!?


Icon was helping to drag it South so not good for Tampa. Storm Seems to be zoning in now between Tampa to Port Charlotte
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#623 Postby wzrgirl1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:28 am

wxman57 wrote:As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.


Could it even go south of fort myers?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#624 Postby MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:33 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.


Could it even go south of fort myers?


Average track error at 3 days is about 75 miles.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#625 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:33 am

STOP REPLYING TO TROLL POSTS PLEASE

Thanks to those that reported it and moved on.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#626 Postby TallyTracker » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:34 am

I looked up Tallahassee hotel availability Tuesday - Friday. Most of the city is booked solid now. Most of the remaining hotels are dumps.

There is still a lot of availability further west toward Panama City.

Pensacola has good availability too. Another bonus is the Naval Air Museum is open for civilians again so it’s a good place to go when it’s raining.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#627 Postby skillz305 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:36 am

Weathertracker96 wrote:
skillz305 wrote:Vero Beach here, although on the east coast, the writing seems to be on the wall now, for at least somewhat Hurricane impacts. Stay prepared and cautious to all, regardless of location.

Vero resident here too. I was just about to make the same post. With the angle it’s coming in, seems like tropical storm/ hurricane conditions are looking more possible. I do wonder though how rain would be on the southern side of this. I hear about dry air wrapping around.



here's the issue. it's supposed to rain all week as you can see it hasnt stopped raining today. it makes tree uprooting very likely with winds if we get hit by milton. crazy stuff.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#628 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:41 am

There’s a good chance RI has started with Milton, judging by how the cloud tops are moving in the cdo. I doubt there’s any tilt left in the circulation, and windfield symmetrization will take less time in such a small core. It’s possible this incoming recon flight finds Milton as a hurricane. If not, may only be a short time afterward that it does.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#629 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:45 am

Appears that connective burst will sustain as his CDO.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#630 Postby aspen » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:46 am

cheezyWXguy wrote:There’s a good chance RI has started with Milton, judging by how the cloud tops are moving in the cdo. I doubt there’s any tilt left in the circulation, and windfield symmetrization will take less time in such a small core. It’s possible this incoming recon flight finds Milton as a hurricane. If not, may only be a short time afterward that it does.

I’m getting some Delta vibes from Milton’s current appearance, combined with the hurricane model runs. We may be about to witness an insane phase of RI over the next 24-36 hours.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#631 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:49 am

Milton is about to put on a show
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#632 Postby Sciencerocks » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:50 am

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#633 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:55 am

Pretty good shift to north by the latest 12 GFS
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#634 Postby boca » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:03 am

NDG wrote:Pretty good shift to north by the latest 12 GFS


I think the south shift will stop and go back to where it was last night. Just waiting on the Euro.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#635 Postby wxman57 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:07 am

wzrgirl1 wrote:
wxman57 wrote:As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.


Could it even go south of fort myers?


Not impossible that it could track south of Ft. Myers, but I'm thinking between Sarasota and Port Charlotte. Not buying the 12Z GFS shift well north of Tampa.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#636 Postby Hurricane2022 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:11 am

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#637 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:17 am

We're hoping for the 1946 Hurricane 6 solution where it weakens before landfall. But don't count on it gang. I fear a Venice to Englewood landfall which would still create a nasty storm surge along the Suncoast.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#638 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:18 am

The average CDO temperature has cooled by 8 degrees over the last 2 hours and some pixels around -86C are popping up on the recent IR loop. Considering how Milton is running ahead of ADT and models, I'm expecting recon to find 60 kt or maybe already a 65 kt hurricane.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#639 Postby BIFF_THE_UNRULY » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:19 am

Poonwalker wrote:Iam going with the Tampa shield solution myself. It’s been correct for over a century now.



Yup. Lets hope tampa bro's continue the winning streak.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#640 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 06, 2024 11:19 am

Poonwalker wrote:Iam going with the Tampa shield solution myself. It’s been correct for over a century now.


This is reminiscent of Ian. Ticks southward and a north weighted QPF field. It's too soon to say this for sure...but it seems like a process...Give Tampa Bay a scare...then figure out where...we will see...but I definitely feel more concerned for sw florida at this point...
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