ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cheezyWXguy]

Iam going with the Tampa shield solution myself. It’s been correct for over a century now.

Can we just call this “further south” or “not thinking Tampa” or something? I assume you’re using shield tongue-in-cheek, but there are apparently enough people that believe in a literal Tampa shield that false credence will be given to the idea if Milton does in fact miss Tampa.

[Travorum]

SAR pass from about 4 hours ago showed winds up to 60kt in the SE quadrant. Given how the IR appearance has improved since then, Milton may be on the edge of Hurricane status.

Platform: RCM-2
Acquisition Date: 2024-10-06 12:07:00 UTC
Storm Name: AL142024 / MILTON
Storm ID: AL14
Storm Center Longitude: -94.791
Storm Center Latitude: 22.583
Incidence Angle (Degrees): 52.110
Quadrant 1 NE VMax (kts): 39.78
Quadrant 2 SE VMax (kts): 59.11
Quadrant 3 SW VMax (kts): 55.28
Quadrant 4 NW VMax (kts): 47.02
RMax (nmi): 5.00 - 18.00

[aspen]

The CDO is starting to curl/shrimp up.

[ColdMiser123]

Would be surprised if Milton wasn't intensifying at a steep pace currently.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

So glad to wake up to most of the models trending weaker. Hopefully they will continue to trend weaker throughout the day. Even if we get a cat 1 landfall, surge is going to still be a problem.

What models are trending weaker? They look about the same to me. The only one that looked notably weaker was the HMON. Help me out here.

[CronkPSU]

Pinellas and Hillsborough schools closed Monday-Wednesday, I expect most others will follow suit soon

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Starting to get a shrimp look.

[xironman]

Is the AF plane heading south to sample the strongest part of the storm for the 18z update?

[TomballEd]

Based on GEFS, S of Tampa is far from certain. Based on where recon found the center and IR loop, the organizational phase is finishing and the RI phase starts soon.

[Blown Away]

Ft. Myers is @100 miles South of Tampa, so all the models are well within their error margin 4 days out. GFS in Tampa and Icon near Ft. Myers really not that big of a difference.

[Cyclenall]

I notice with the CDO expanding to the NE there is some tug on the convection non-uniformly. The deep convection endures.

[Soluna16]

It looks looking great on visible right now my goodness

[Rail Dawg]

While we concentrate on Milton we also need to watch that blob off of the western Mexico coast which will become Nadine.

A distinct possibility Nadine will be the next major to hit Florida after Milton.

Chuck

[xironman]

While we concentrate on Milton we also need to watch that blob off of the western Mexico coast which will become Nadine.

A distinct possibility Nadine will be the next major to hit Florida after Milton.

Chuck

You going to chase Milton?

[zhukm29]

[Recurve]

A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

[Evil Jeremy]

Massive pit in my stomach looking at Milton this morning. Just knowing it's October, knowing the region of the Caribbean this was inhabiting a week ago (and some of the models from that span), seeing the radar presentation currently, the forecast models.... and I just think Wilma. I'm not sure if the comparisons are more than superficial as I'm really out of the game now, but my Florida peeps across the state are eyes open this morning.

[tropicwatch]

Milton is becoming a classic looking system.

 https://x.com/i/status/1842972771783188834

[psyclone]

A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

I am in watch and wait mode and I think a lot of people around here are doing just that. I haven't visited retailers yet today but there was no evidence of any panic type shopping yesterday. To be fair some of that may be a result of people stocking up pre season or pre Helene

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye is going to start carving out shortly. The burst on the southern side is now finally wrapping around to the east.