ATL: MILTON - Models

[Cat5James]

The full 12z GFS run. As everyone has said, it dips further south while passing the Yucatan but takes a steeper angle of approach on the approach to Florida ending up around Crystal River.
https://i.imgur.com/Ci3Vq9E.gif

Any less steep of an angle and that is going directly into Tampa Bay

[SFLcane]

[kevin]

12z guidance. 12 out of 18 models show a MH peak and 2 models have a C5 peak.

[floridasun]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

[kevin]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

By then we will also have the 12z Euro (+ the GEFS and Euro ensembles). If Euro joins GFS they'll probably go with that, otherwise they'll lean more heavily towards the southern models.

[BobHarlem]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

Probably split the difference and make no change to the track.

[CronkPSU]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

Isn’t just the GFS up there…most are up there now

[caneman]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

By then we will also have the 12z Euro (+ the GEFS and Euro ensembles). If Euro joins GFS they'll probably go with that, otherwise they'll lean more heavily towards the southern models.

I doubt it. THE NHC already stated that they're leaning more on the EURO and GFS so it would be a blend. I think they realized with Helene they put too much stock in other models.

[StPeteMike]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

Isn’t just the GFS up there…most are up there now

Don’t all the HMON, HAFS and HWRf have it still on the northern end?

[CronkPSU]

who will nhc go with at 5pm gfs vs rest models

Isn’t just the GFS up there…most are up there now

Don’t all the HMON, HAFS and HWRf have it still on the northern end?

Yes

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

NHC will probably keep their track into Tampa bay. Maybe a little south to Sarasota imo

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z UKMet holds firm with a Ft Meyers to Treasure Coast exit.

[psyclone]

That GFS run would be terrible for Tampa Bay and the nature coast....a surge wipeout

[MetroMike]

No sense in breathing easier as I admit I was here in Clearwater this morning.
Have to stay vigilant and strong.

[BIFF_THE_UNRULY]

That GFS run would be terrible for Tampa Bay and the nature coast....a surge wipeout

We are still 3 days out. Anything can happen

[tolakram]

HAFS running

[shah83]

HAFS-A going with bigger eye, and bigger radius of storm winds at the start.

[eastcoastFL]

12z UKMet holds firm with a Ft Meyers to Treasure Coast exit.

I'm glad that's an outlier right now. It's going to be a stressful couple of days. I'm gonna have to try and work and keep an eye on the storm/models tomorrow.

[eastcoastFL]

HAFS running

https://i.imgur.com/vwVR66Y.png

https://i.imgur.com/KUIS1RX.png

That's a lot of strengthening between now and Tues.

[SFLcane]

12z UKMet holds firm with a Ft Meyers to Treasure Coast exit.

I'm glad that's an outlier right now. It's going to be a stressful couple of days. I'm gonna have to try and work and keep an eye on the storm/models tomorrow.

Nothing is an outlier lol it’s well within the nhc cone.