ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

While we concentrate on Milton we also need to watch that blob off of the western Mexico coast which will become Nadine.

A distinct possibility Nadine will be the next major to hit Florida after Milton.

Chuck

You going to chase Milton?

No longer chasing hurricanes after 16 of them!

Was fun the first 20 years but now the chasers are everywhere filming for You Tube. The dynamics have changed it was fun back in the day because no one else was there.

Last hurricane chased was Cat 5 Michael in Panama City. The inner eyewall was incredible.

Warned a couple YouTube chasers in the parking lot garage that morning NOT to go to Mexico Beach to catch the eye because of storm surge.

You can watch their car floating away live as they filmed the surge and the waves crashed over their windshield. They barely escaped with their lives.

It was a great run chasing these monsters. You guys were awesome in your support.

Chuck

[ColdMiser123]

Multiple rotating hot towers now - one of the clearest signs you can get for a quickly intensifying system.

[WaveBreaking]

Lightning starting to show up in the core

[zhukm29]

I know the HAFS models can be a bit overzealous, but it's tough to know that there is a possibility that the 19-year streak with no sub-900mb storm could potentially be at play, especially with how pristine the conditions are near the Yucatan.

[WaveBreaking]

I know the HAFS models can be a bit overzealous, but it's tough to know that there is a possibility that the 19-year streak with no sub-900mb storm could potentially be at play, especially with how pristine the conditions are near the Yucatan.

So maybe a Delta-type situation without the mid-level shear?

[Kingarabian]

Solid T4.0 here. It's likely this is a hurricane.

[Rail Dawg]

Trust the forecast track do not trust the forecast intensity.

Am very old school and used to forecast without computer models.

The models today still have a really hard time with intensity it seems.

Chuck

[zal0phus]

I know the HAFS models can be a bit overzealous, but it's tough to know that there is a possibility that the 19-year streak with no sub-900mb storm could potentially be at play, especially with how pristine the conditions are near the Yucatan.

I get this impression too. If we're to have a sub-900 storm anytime soon, this feels like the one.

[cheezyWXguy]

Trust the forecast track do not trust the forecast intensity.

Am very old school and used to forecast without computer models.

The models today still have a really hard time with intensity it seems.

Chuck

Good to hear from you again. I think the first time I recall seeing you post here was during Michael, ironic we’re dealing with another severe situation in Florida with its replacement name. You chasing this one?

[typhoonty]

A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

If you are in a surge zone, do NOT stay and put your life into the hands of a wobble. Find someone in Valrico, Wesley Chapel, hell even the high parts of St Pete. This is the point where you call a neighbor inland and ask to crash. Don't risk your life for what could only be a few mile reposition.

[NAVAIDNICK]

As for the track, I'm thinking Port Charlotte, NOT Tampa. NHC shifted the landfall south, but they're still well north of consensus. They'll adjust their track farther south this afternoon.
Good news for Tampa, bad new for Port Charlotte/Ft. Myers.

Could it even go south of fort myers?

Not impossible that it could track south of Ft. Myers, but I'm thinking between Sarasota and Port Charlotte. Not buying the 12Z GFS shift well north of Tampa.

Between Sarasota and Port Charlotte = Englewood/North Port.

[zzzh]

FL 75, SFMR 69, 100% a hurricane.

[869MB]

Link: https://youtube.com/watch?v=eAsbNPmjcIg

[Nimbus]

While we are waiting for recon, back in the day we would have had to rely on buoy telemetry.
Easier to do that with the ionospheric heaters..
This buoy 42055 has been dropping pressure every 10 minutes with the winds steady from 230 could be Milton approaching on a ESE track?

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

[GCANE]

Period of maximum ionospheric heating now underway

https://solarham.com/globald.htm

[kevin]

75 kt FL, welcome hurricane Milton.

[cycloneye]

We got the H.

Peak Flight-Level Winds: 75kt at 17:18z

[GCANE]

2500 to 3000 CAPE air now in the core

[zhukm29]

Recon is not even at the center yet...

[Buck]

Three hurricanes on October 6. It’s 2024, I’d expect nothing less.