ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[WaveBreaking]

Dual-rotating VHTs already? wtf??

[aspen]

Easy 70 kt hurricane right there.

[xironman]

Smart move to sample the southeast first. Easy cane call for 18z.

[GCANE]

Shear is reduced to about 15 knts

[zhukm29]

Not good when the HAFS-B is one of the closest models right now...

[GCANE]

SFMR 65.2 knots
Cat 1

[underthwx]

Boy, this one is posing some pretty tricky range of scenarios. The rapid deepening that the HAFS forecast is "abrupt" however the 70 mb rise from weakening over a 30 hr. period is just as perplexing. Where this will be of far less consequence in terms of storm surge, the difference that the potential range in strength for inland winds is monumental. Both HAFS models seem to bring the storm in later then prior forecasts. ICON and GFS are at least 12 hours faster and more consistent with prior model runs in terms of timing. Clearly one thing seems to be the most important here. A faster or sooner landfall will bring stronger winds to mainland Florida wherever landfall will occur. I trust the HAFS models in terms of intensity however would be wary of having as much confidence in their track solutions. Lets see whether GFS and ICON seem to delay landfall over the next few model runs, or stick to a mid-day to late Wednesday landfall. That alone might be as much an indicator of how much weakening will have occurred at the point of (wind) impact.

True that.....I think some of Milton's weather woes....will be found out after the cyclone passes...in other words...some of the details will not be known until an analysis of Milton is completed....but all of you here....along with the forecasters at the NHC are among the best.....yall are doing an epic job....with a complex cyclone....

[cheezyWXguy]

Nascent eye on visible

[tolakram]

saved loop



source: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

[johngaltfla]

A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

I am in watch and wait mode and I think a lot of people around here are doing just that. I haven't visited retailers yet today but there was no evidence of any panic type shopping yesterday. To be fair some of that may be a result of people stocking up pre season or pre Helene

I stopped at one store today because I was low on lighter fluid and hurricane beer, it was panic shopping. Believe me, Sarasota is taking this seriously.

[johngaltfla]

Easy 70 kt hurricane right there.

No doubt in my mind.

[cheezyWXguy]

This pass shows a significantly more symmetrical wind field than before. Sfmr shows almost as high of winds in the nw quad as the se quad. More discrepancy aloft in the FL winds, but I think that’s to be expected since Milton has been best organized in the low levels up to this point. Pressure hasn’t dropped substantially yet but that will change soon. RI underway

[tropicwatch]

This pass shows a significantly more symmetrical wind field than before. Sfmr shows almost as high of winds in the nw quad as the se quad. More discrepancy aloft in the FL winds, but I think that’s to be expected since Milton has been best organized in the low levels up to this point. Pressure hasn’t dropped substantially yet but that will change soon. RI underway

987.1 mb extrapolated

[TomballEd]

SFMR 65.2 knots
Cat 1

I thought I saw a Tweet that SFMR data wouldn't be used until they can better calibrate the instrument. Just days ago. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

[Nimbus]

FL 75, SFMR 69, 100% a hurricane.

987 mb center fix next pass will probably qualify for RI?

[ChrisH-UK]

Milton using GeoColor and Optical Cloud Depth, the optical cloud depth shows the thickness of the clouds and is a handy product to use to see the structure of a storm.

Source - https://col.st/pUmu5

[tolakram]

SFMR 65.2 knots
Cat 1

I thought I saw a Tweet that SFMR data wouldn't be used until they can better calibrate the instrument. Just days ago. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

NOAA planes only I believe. I could also be wrong.

[cycloneye]

SFMR 65.2 knots
Cat 1

I thought I saw a Tweet that SFMR data wouldn't be used until they can better calibrate the instrument. Just days ago. I could be wrong, but I don't think so.

NOAA planes only I believe. I could also be wrong.

Yes. NOAA discontinued them

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Multiple 75 knot flight level winds... a reduction to surface supports 60-65 knots.

[bob rulz]

Definitely fearing for those on the west coast of Florida. This has that shrimp look and is way ahead of schedule on intensification.