ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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johngaltfla
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#721 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:02 pm

Fire Chief Paul Dezzi urges Longboat Key residents to “leave as soon as you can”

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2024/10/06/f ... n-you-can/

via WWSB, Sarasota
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#722 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:03 pm

norva13x wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
norva13x wrote:Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?


Where in Polk (it is a big county)


Lake Wales


I would. I am tomorrow and we're in the bullseye.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#723 Postby hurricaneCW » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:05 pm

This is a small storm, it's not surprising that it's intensifying so quickly. It could unwind just as fast too.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#724 Postby johngaltfla » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:06 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:This is a small storm, it's not surprising that it's intensifying so quickly. It could unwind just as fast too.


For those of us in SWFL, we simply remind each other of this one word:

Charley
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#725 Postby SecondBreakfast » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:08 pm

Brother in Orlando said his BJ’s checkout line was across the entire warehouse and wrapped around.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#726 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:09 pm

boca wrote:
NDG wrote:Pretty good shift to north by the latest 12 GFS


I think the south shift will stop and go back to where it was last night. Just waiting on the Euro.


So the wobble-watching has commenced!
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#727 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:09 pm

norva13x wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
norva13x wrote:Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?


Where in Polk (it is a big county)


Lake Wales


Someone up further had good advise about ultimately it is how it makes you feel, depending on landfall, you will get hurricane force winds over your house and you wouldn’t be overreacting AT ALL
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#728 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:10 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:This is a small storm, it's not surprising that it's intensifying so quickly. It could unwind just as fast too.

The NHC has been crystal clear regarding Hurricane Milton's potential for rapidly intensifying....and Milton will expand as it traverses the Gulf....and as it approaches closer to the west coast of Florida....it should weaken a bit prior to landfall.....its all there in detail on the NHC website....
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#729 Postby kassi » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:10 pm

johngaltfla wrote:We're hoping for the 1946 Hurricane 6 solution where it weakens before landfall. But don't count on it gang. I fear a Venice to Englewood landfall which would still create a nasty storm surge along the Suncoast.

How did they know in 1946 that it was weakening upon landfall?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#730 Postby USTropics » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:11 pm

I wanted to cover some of the steering influences that will dictate where Milton is heading. First, let's take a look at our major synoptic steering flow (and why this is heading towards Florida). This is an excellent product/cmap recipe from Alex Boreham (Sparta) and Deelan Jariwala. I've outlined here our stalled out front just north of Milton (pink), as well as the high pressure features over CONUS (yellow). This setup has caused a near ideal environment for Milton, and steering has been rather lax (hence the southward drifting and positional correction). At the very top of the map, I've outlined in green our cutoff trough that is starting to dig towards the SE. This will break down the ridging (dashed yellow) and allow Milton to eventually move northeastward more quickly in the forecast period:
Image

That's our general alleyway for track from a synoptic point of view, but what about nuances/deviations in timing? This is important, as we just saw with Helene. Let's take a loot at two polarizing deterministic runs from the 12z suite, a much slower CMC run that is further south and a much quicker run with the GFS. Let's look at a snapshot at 42 hours first of MSLP, as there are some important details to point here. First, the GFS has a significantly stronger system than the CMC. Also, our cutoff low on the GFS run is much deeper (MSLP) than the CMC.
Image
Image


Another factor that is important, how Leslie will modulate ridging to the east of Milton. If we go out to 72 hours, we have DRASTICALLY different solutions now in the deterministic runs. The GFS is already closing in on landfall, while the CMC solution is still stuck around the Yucatan peninsula. Why is this? Let's timestep to 54 hours, and look at the difference in our 588 DAM line. Leslie has eroded the ridging to the east, and this allows our cutoff trough to the northeast to have more of an influence (the GFS also has a deeper system, so the upper-level flow from the cutoff low/troughing has more of an influence):
Image
Image

Which model has the more correct solution? If we look at 500mb verification scores for CONUS (which helps us see which model is handling our troughing/ridging the best), the GFS has been playing some catch up here:
Image

If we also look at verification biases of the global deterministic models, there is a noticeable left of track bias in the GFS (you can check out verification scores here - https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/ver ... _cyclones/). Let's take a look at Helene for an example (another situation with a cutoff low, but different geographical location). Our GFS was again left of track for verification:
Image

So is the GFS solution worthless? No, because it actually is our best performing model when it comes to intensity (which we can see with Leslie, is important here), we just need to know its biases and correct for those:
Image

The best solution here (and the one the NHC will not deviate far from) is to use a consensus blend of models that correct for these biases. One of the best models for this is the TVCN, and we can see the trend for the TVCN has been shifting southward. I do expect some more shifts (this could be more northerly or southerly, or the windshield wiper effect as we call it) as the models lock in more on the upper level features but I do think just north of Tampa down to Sarasota is becoming an increasingly likely landfall location:
Image
Last edited by USTropics on Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#731 Postby norva13x » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:11 pm

And I literally just got a new roof this year too :cry:
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#732 Postby kevin » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:11 pm

ConvergenceZone wrote:I wonder if it's possible for Milton to peak at Cat 4 instead of 3?


Considering developments and models I'd say anything from cat 3 - 5 is realistic.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#733 Postby underthwx » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:12 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
norva13x wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
Where in Polk (it is a big county)


Lake Wales


Someone up further had good advise about ultimately it is how it makes you feel, depending on landfall, you will get hurricane force winds over your house and you wouldn’t be overreacting AT ALL

Agree.....with Milton looming on the horizon....take every precaution you feel necessary to protect your home and family from the elements.....no overkill at all....
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#734 Postby TomballEd » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:12 pm

hurricaneCW wrote:This is a small storm, it's not surprising that it's intensifying so quickly. It could unwind just as fast too.



Modelling shows it expands as it feels the shear and begins the process to being extra-tropical. It won't be far into the process when it reaches Florida, but far enough the wind field will expand even as the storm weakens. A Cat 3 or 4 24 hours before landfall will have pushed up a lot of surge, even if landfall winds are down to low end cat 3 or Cat 2. NHC expects it to have hurricane force winds across all of Florida, in fact. before the shear starts to affect it, it will increase mid level RH around it, and that also allows the storm to expand.

TL;DR- it may be weakening approaching the coast, but from major strength, and the weakening isn't expected to be rapid.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#735 Postby HurryKane » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:15 pm

CronkPSU wrote:
norva13x wrote:
CronkPSU wrote:
Where in Polk (it is a big county)


Lake Wales


Someone up further had good advise about ultimately it is how it makes you feel, depending on landfall, you will get hurricane force winds over your house and you wouldn’t be overreacting AT ALL


I’ve boarded up for all kinds of storms, and even when the storms ended up not being that bad and I was the only one for several streets around doing it, have never regretted it. If it eases your mind, go for it.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#736 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:17 pm

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#737 Postby jasons2k » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:20 pm

Just an observation. We always preach “don’t focus on the line or the exact track of the forecast path” yet in this case it is critical. Just a few miles either way is going to make a major difference along the coast. The big question lingers, does it go in north or south of Tampa Bay? It’s still too early to say for certain. I’m concerned some additional track adjustments will be made once Milton accelerates and his movement becomes more established.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#738 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:22 pm

Image
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.

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Re: ATL: MILTON - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#739 Postby kassi » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:25 pm

Recurve wrote:A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

I live in Texas and while I have zero advice on the specific evacuation situation in Florida, if you have the means to evacuate, go. We lost our home, our vehicles, everything, but our lives. Better safe than sorry.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Hurricane - Discussion

#740 Postby dukeblue219 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 1:27 pm

jasons2k wrote:Just an observation. We always preach “don’t focus on the line or the exact track of the forecast path” yet in this case it is critical. Just a few miles either way is going to make a major difference along the coast. The big question lingers, does it go in north or south of Tampa Bay? It’s still too early to say for certain. I’m concerned some additional track adjustments will be made once Milton accelerates and his movement becomes more established.


In particular this could be a storm that confuses people based on the 12-hourly points on the forecast map. If you draw straight lines you get one point, but that turn from NE to E could be abrupt, somewhere right around landfall. Lots of ways to connect the dots (even if we believe the dots are perfect forecasts) that don't make a straight line.
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