ATL: MILTON - Models

[tolakram]

HAFS-A still strong close to landfall, but weakening.

[tolakram]

North and a bit stronger.

[Steve]

A looks like Hernando or Citrus Cos unless it goes due east.

[BobHarlem]

12z Euro, very slight left/north shift to Bradenton from closer to Sarasota at the 0z, exits into Atlantic at Cape Canaveral.

[tolakram]

[TampaWxLurker]

A looks like Hernando or Citrus Cos unless it goes due east.

Dives almost due east at the end near the Pinellas/Pasco County line.

[Steve]

A looks like Hernando or Citrus Cos unless it goes due east.

Dives almost due east at the end near the Pinellas/Pasco County line.

Yep. Weather is heavily weighted north which I’m assuming is because of the SW flow out ahead. Jacksonville looks to get some heavy action.

[BobHarlem]

12z HAFS-A near Palm Harbor/Tarpon Springs, no real change from 6z on landfall point, exits in the Atlantic near New Smyrna Beach.

[Nimbus]

Just watched Levi's video on tropical tidbits, looks like Scorpion reef will be our next model benchmark diamond.
The northeastward bend in track is forecast to begin near there and most of the variability in the forecast track will be due to upper air modeling success or failure at that point in the track. Levi also noted the possibility of 40+ knot shear if the storm tries to track north of Tampa bay. That would be too late to help the surge issue but might lower wind impact inland.

[tronbunny]

I'll take the Euro for 500 Alex

12z Euro, very slight left/north shift to Bradenton from closer to Sarasota at the 0z, exits into Atlantic at Cape Canaveral.
https://i.imgur.com/2o3NQBE.png

[NDG]

What we can all agree on after today's latest global models is that the stronger it is the more northerly track across FL it will take.

[otowntiger]

HMON has it practically disintegrate into a TS as it comes on shore. Continuing the weakening trend on that model at least.

[mantis83]

hwrf at 946 north of tampa....

[tolakram]

[Steve]

Precip forecast:

ICON has a narrow band of >12” Gainesville, Palatka, Palm Coast

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

GFS is farther north and extends to Jacksonville

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

CMC is much farther south and crosses Lake Okeechobee with the heaviest band.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 612&fh=180

[BobHarlem]

revisiting the 12z euro, it looks like it manages to stay right in the bay up the Egmont Channel, not necessarily Bradenton.

[caneman]

12z HAFS-B landfall treasure island. Exits into the Atlantic just north of Cape Canaveral.

https://i.imgur.com/RzJ285T.gif

Thats just wrong. Treasure Island and Mad beach are devastated and debris everywhere. Flying projectiles!

[tolakram]

12Z Euro


source: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/20 ... 2300z.html

[BobHarlem]

12z GFS Ensembles seem more clustered and shifted a little to the north/left of 6z.

[BobHarlem]

18Z earlies. TVCN shifted left/north to Bradenton. (Was Englewood at 12z)
Official track is now south of consensus.