ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Doing a bit of nowcasting... the higher end hurricane models from yesterday appear to be verifying nicely with Milton's progression. This does suggest that the storm will become a major hurricane in the next 18 hours, and potentially become extremely intense just north of Merida/Chicxulub. Milton is much smaller than Helene was, with a greater real-estate to travel across the Gulf of Mexico at a slower speed. Smaller storms are more prone to explosive RI episodes. I don't think a HAFS-A/B scenario is particularly likely but represent the absolute highest end of what Milton could do. Beyond that it's just a wait and see; shear could knock it down, but recall there was a lot of expectation shear would knock down Ian too.

[johngaltfla]

We're hoping for the 1946 Hurricane 6 solution where it weakens before landfall. But don't count on it gang. I fear a Venice to Englewood landfall which would still create a nasty storm surge along the Suncoast.

How did they know in 1946 that it was weakening upon landfall?

Military weather station picked up 85 mph winds at landfall. It was a Cat 2 heading towards the coast then weakened on October 8th as it hit Cortez.

[tropicwatch]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

https://i.imgur.com/p7ok5q2.gif

Noticed it this morning has pretty decent 925mb vorticity.

[USTropics]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

https://i.imgur.com/p7ok5q2.gif

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:

[underthwx]

I wonder if it's possible for Milton to peak at Cat 4 instead of 3?

Considering developments and models I'd say anything from cat 3 - 5 is realistic.

I have to agree with you Kevin unfortunately.....this cyclones potential is proving itself as the day goes on....the 4 pm update should be more evidence of this cyclones potential....

[zhukm29]

Eye looking like it might pop out today.

[TallyTracker]

Would it be overkill to board up windows in Polk County?

I lived in Lakeland during Irma. It was a Cat 1 with an intact core when it went through. The tree and building damage was substantial with lots of debris. This looks to be worse if the core hits the area due to being stronger and having only 40 miles of land to traverse. Like others have said I’d at least do you south facing windows.

[underthwx]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

https://i.imgur.com/p7ok5q2.gif

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:
https://i.imgur.com/AuXj44m.png

The rains that are occurring over Florida right now...as you correctly stated....are connected with a frontal zone....I read a bit about it earlier....if I remember correctly....this feature is forecast to combine with Milton eventually....and as you say....its not certain if it impacts steering of the cyclone....can you comment on the effects the frontal zone may have on Milton....regarding intensity?.....and will it enhance rainfall?.....thanks for any info!...

[jlauderdal]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

That low ahead of milt is juicing things up in sefl this afternoon, pouring at my place now.

[Steve]

We're hoping for the 1946 Hurricane 6 solution where it weakens before landfall. But don't count on it gang. I fear a Venice to Englewood landfall which would still create a nasty storm surge along the Suncoast.

How did they know in 1946 that it was weakening upon landfall?

Measuring the pressure. They had that capability.

[Travorum]

983.1mb extrap this pass.

[aspen]

983.1mb extrap this pass.

Dropping like a rock. Winds still need to catch up; so far only the SE quad has hurricane-force winds.

[sasha_B]

983

At this rate, if there isn't something to put a stop to near-term RI, Milton could approach major hurricane status overnight. That would keep it pretty close to - if not ahead of - the hurricane models indeed, in terms of intensity.

[MarioProtVI]

Definitely worried about this going full on Eta mode overnight by developing a pinhole - already seems like the beginning stages of that. Cat 5 chances increasing sadly.

[psyclone]

We have a stout northeast breeze here and it feels cool...like the coolest in months. Hit up the local publix...it's brisk but not slammed. Only thing out was gallon jugs of water. Everything else available in abundance

[StPeteMike]

We have a stout northeast breeze here and it feels cool...like the coolest in months. Hit up the local publix...it's brisk but not slammed. Only thing out was gallon jugs of water. Everything else available in abundance

Feels great outside. Just left Publix, no water besides Soda Water at mine. Chips aisle was still pretty stocked though. A lot more people prepping for Milton though compared to the last few years.

[zzzh]

000
URNT12 KNHC 061907
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 06/18:43:50Z
B. 22.52 deg N 094.03 deg W
C. 700 mb 2991 m
D. 986 mb
E. 265 deg 13 kt
F. OPEN NE
G. C30
H. 59 kt
I. 208 deg 16 nm 18:39:30Z
J. 297 deg 62 kt
K. 212 deg 19 nm 18:38:30Z
L. 52 kt
M. 043 deg 13 nm 18:48:00Z
N. 141 deg 41 kt
O. 045 deg 20 nm 18:50:00Z
P. 7 C / 3048 m
Q. 17 C / 3041 m
R. 7 C / NA
S. 12345 / 7
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 0214A MILTON OB 11
MAX FL WIND 75 KT 138 / 15 NM 17:18:00Z

[Travorum]

Eye dropsonde has 986mb with 13kts of wind

[cheezyWXguy]

Gonna have to take back what I said earlier about the wind field symmetry, still some work to do. Won’t take a lot of time to work that out though