ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StormPyrate]

Pinellis county just went mandatory evac zones A-C
they only did A for Helene

[TheFort2018]

Fort Pierce here. The vehicles are gassed up. I'll close the shutters and make sure everything else is battened down. If we stay, I'll run a tub full of water. If it looks too dicey, we've got essentials like meds, toiletries, important papers and anything else deemed irreplaceable ready to take with us and drive south to Broward or Dade until we see how it shakes out.

[CFLHurricane]

We have a stout northeast breeze here and it feels cool...like the coolest in months. Hit up the local publix...it's brisk but not slammed. Only thing out was gallon jugs of water. Everything else available in abundance

I feel like today is the calm before the poop hits the fan and all of Central Florida goes bananas. That’s why I opted to put my panels up today because the work week will be soaking wet and crazy here in the Space Coast. Normally I wouldn’t be too concerned, but this one is unique with how quickly he’s organizing and I’m just happy the neighborhood is a bunch of first timers coming together.

[zzzh]

[Hurrilurker]

Florida better hope that intense shear verifies because this is looking dire right now. Maybe it'll pick up some dry air as it passes the Yucatan?

[Category5Kaiju]

Words alone cannot capture how concerned I am about Milton. We've had so many devastating hurricanes in recent years that it almost seems like saying "oh, this next one will be very bad" is a redundant point. With Milton though, the possibility that it could land a direct strike on a densely populated metro area, well known to the US populace, is, quite frankly, spine-chilling. Ida got close but ultimately made landfall in the swamps south of New Orleans.

If...big if...this indeed lands a direct punch to Tampa, whatever arises from this situation, I'll apply a quote made by Queen Elizabeth in her planned speech in case World War 3 broke out: "My message to you, therefore, is simple. Help those who cannot help themselves, give comfort to the lonely and the homeless and let your family become the focus of hope and life to those who need it."

[cheezyWXguy]

Eye dropsonde has 986mb with 13kts of wind

https://i.imgur.com/LvuOvZi.png

3mb drop from the last pass

[Craters]

Nah it's because your site doesn't have a security certificate, I can't even access it on my phone it's blocked for safety reasons.

Same here. I don't have the option to ignore it.

Anyone here using Firefox? I can't really test it on my PCs as it's my GoDaddy account. Other options for image storage?

I'm using Firefox, but it's BitDefender that's been blocking it for me...

[WaveBreaking]

Eye steadily warming

[USTropics]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

https://i.imgur.com/p7ok5q2.gif

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:
https://i.imgur.com/AuXj44m.png

The rains that are occurring over Florida right now...as you correctly stated....are connected with a frontal zone....I read a bit about it earlier....if I remember correctly....this feature is forecast to combine with Milton eventually....and as you say....its not certain if it impacts steering of the cyclone....can you comment on the effects the frontal zone may have on Milton....regarding intensity?.....and will it enhance rainfall?.....thanks for any info!...

Yes, the weak frontal boundary will push south over the next few days. What we're seeing from this stalled frontal boundary is an increase in atmospheric moisture and instability out ahead of Milton. Like you stated, there are already showers/thunderstorms impacting the west coast of Florida (and this may soften the soil, causing more tree failures). A second, more significant front will also push down later next week and merge with the current weak frontal boundary over the GOM (with the silver lining being wherever Milton impacts, dewpoint and high temperatures will be anomalously low thanks to the second cold front):


The bigger influence will be our upper-level features. Orientation of jet stream and proximity of Milton to it will (1) increase southwesterly shear as the storm approaches the coastline but also (2) modulate the wind field, increasing radius of winds as Milton begins extratropical transition and interacts with the jet streak:

[Travorum]

Pinellis county just went mandatory evac zones A-C
they only did A for Helene

The order I see is just for residential healthcare facilities at this time:

NOW, THEREFORE, BE IT RESOLVED AND DECLARED in accordance with Resolution No. 24-68, this 6th day of October, 2024:

1.) That in light of the serious threat to the lives and property of Pinellas County residents posed by Milton, a mandatory evacuation is ordered for all Residential Healthcare Facilities within Evacuation Zones A, B, and C. The evacuation is to commence at 1 :30 p.m. on October 6, 2024. EVACUATION ORDER FOR ALL RESIDENTIAL HEALTHCARE FACILITIES WITHIN ZONES A, B, AND C PURSUANT TO RESOLUTION NO. 24-68

2.) This evacuation shall remain in force until ended by further order. All prior orders remain in full force and effect. Any unauthorized person located in, or attempting to enter, an evacuation area after the above stated completion time shall be in violation of F.S. §252.50, and subject to the penalties therein.

Ordered this 6th day of October 2024, at 1:30 p.m.

[NDG]

Interesting circulation ahead of Milton in the eastern GOM, models were right about multiple vorticities in the GOM before they started latching on developing Milton.

https://i.imgur.com/p7ok5q2.gif

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:
https://i.imgur.com/AuXj44m.png

It might have tangled in with a "frontal" boundary but clearly the source/moisture came from the Caribbean, I have been tracking the vorticity all week long. The impacts to Helene is that is creating a weakness over the eastern GOM which Milton will follow along.

[psyclone]

Sounds like Pinellas is prepping for evacs of level A,B and C...which would cover more than half the county's population...more than a half million would be ordered to move if in fact that is what they decide. As of now it's assisted living and hospitals in those zones.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:
https://i.imgur.com/AuXj44m.png

The rains that are occurring over Florida right now...as you correctly stated....are connected with a frontal zone....I read a bit about it earlier....if I remember correctly....this feature is forecast to combine with Milton eventually....and as you say....its not certain if it impacts steering of the cyclone....can you comment on the effects the frontal zone may have on Milton....regarding intensity?.....and will it enhance rainfall?.....thanks for any info!...

Yes, the weak frontal boundary will push south over the next few days. What we're seeing from this stalled frontal boundary is an increase in atmospheric moisture and instability out ahead of Milton. Like you stated, there are already showers/thunderstorms impacting the west coast of Florida (and this may soften the soil, causing more tree failures). A second, more significant front will also push down later next week and merge with the current weak frontal boundary over the GOM (with the silver lining being wherever Milton impacts, dewpoint and high temperatures will be anomalously low thanks to the second cold front):
https://i.imgur.com/daF48yO.png

The bigger influence will be our upper-level features. Orientation of jet stream and proximity of Milton to it will (1) increase southwesterly shear as the storm approaches the coastline but also (2) modulate the wind field, increasing radius of winds as Milton begins extratropical transition and interacts with the jet streak:
https://i.imgur.com/m6gZHYe.png

what is it that makes it become extra tropical? That's one thing I've never quite understood. Is it because it's getting later in the season?

[LandoWill]

Crazy storm, could change from every 6 hours up until Tuesday . Right now, i will just clean up debris and hope it comes in south like they changed today. Maybe south is worse for Tampa, outside of the surge because of shear. heh who knows. confusing storm

[WaveBreaking]

Long mesoscale loop

[underthwx]

Yea this vort max is associated more with the frontal zone, but I'm not sure how it impacts steering (if at all, since its so shallow). The GFS ensembles were picking up on it a bit:
https://i.imgur.com/AuXj44m.png

The rains that are occurring over Florida right now...as you correctly stated....are connected with a frontal zone....I read a bit about it earlier....if I remember correctly....this feature is forecast to combine with Milton eventually....and as you say....its not certain if it impacts steering of the cyclone....can you comment on the effects the frontal zone may have on Milton....regarding intensity?.....and will it enhance rainfall?.....thanks for any info!...

Yes, the weak frontal boundary will push south over the next few days. What we're seeing from this stalled frontal boundary is an increase in atmospheric moisture and instability out ahead of Milton. Like you stated, there are already showers/thunderstorms impacting the west coast of Florida (and this may soften the soil, causing more tree failures). A second, more significant front will also push down later next week and merge with the current weak frontal boundary over the GOM (with the silver lining being wherever Milton impacts, dewpoint and high temperatures will be anomalously low thanks to the second cold front):
https://i.imgur.com/daF48yO.png

The bigger influence will be our upper-level features. Orientation of jet stream and proximity of Milton to it will (1) increase southwesterly shear as the storm approaches the coastline but also (2) modulate the wind field, increasing radius of winds as Milton begins extratropical transition and interacts with the jet streak:
https://i.imgur.com/m6gZHYe.png

Thankyou for your excellent reply.....I do appreciate it!!!

[USTropics]

The rains that are occurring over Florida right now...as you correctly stated....are connected with a frontal zone....I read a bit about it earlier....if I remember correctly....this feature is forecast to combine with Milton eventually....and as you say....its not certain if it impacts steering of the cyclone....can you comment on the effects the frontal zone may have on Milton....regarding intensity?.....and will it enhance rainfall?.....thanks for any info!...

Yes, the weak frontal boundary will push south over the next few days. What we're seeing from this stalled frontal boundary is an increase in atmospheric moisture and instability out ahead of Milton. Like you stated, there are already showers/thunderstorms impacting the west coast of Florida (and this may soften the soil, causing more tree failures). A second, more significant front will also push down later next week and merge with the current weak frontal boundary over the GOM (with the silver lining being wherever Milton impacts, dewpoint and high temperatures will be anomalously low thanks to the second cold front):
https://i.imgur.com/daF48yO.png

The bigger influence will be our upper-level features. Orientation of jet stream and proximity of Milton to it will (1) increase southwesterly shear as the storm approaches the coastline but also (2) modulate the wind field, increasing radius of winds as Milton begins extratropical transition and interacts with the jet streak:
https://i.imgur.com/m6gZHYe.png

what is it that makes it become extra tropical? That's one thing I've never quite understood. Is it because it's getting later in the season?

It's the interaction with the jet streak specifically. We have a lot of upper-level divergence in our front right entrance region to the streak (I made a post on jet streaks earlier this year in relation to severe weather), this inevitably spreads out the wind radius (and modulates it more northerly). While the wind field increases in spatial area, the core of the system is no longer able to consolidate. I like to use an ice skater analogy here: when the ice skater is able to pull their arms in, they can spin faster (like we will see in the next 24-48 hours with Milton). But as the wind radius begins to expand, our ice skater's arms will be pulled outwards (i.e., deceleration of inner core vorticity). Once Milton is cutoff from the oceanic heat, the main processes that modulate structure/intensity become baroclinic.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yes, the weak frontal boundary will push south over the next few days. What we're seeing from this stalled frontal boundary is an increase in atmospheric moisture and instability out ahead of Milton. Like you stated, there are already showers/thunderstorms impacting the west coast of Florida (and this may soften the soil, causing more tree failures). A second, more significant front will also push down later next week and merge with the current weak frontal boundary over the GOM (with the silver lining being wherever Milton impacts, dewpoint and high temperatures will be anomalously low thanks to the second cold front):
https://i.imgur.com/daF48yO.png

The bigger influence will be our upper-level features. Orientation of jet stream and proximity of Milton to it will (1) increase southwesterly shear as the storm approaches the coastline but also (2) modulate the wind field, increasing radius of winds as Milton begins extratropical transition and interacts with the jet streak:
https://i.imgur.com/m6gZHYe.png

what is it that makes it become extra tropical? That's one thing I've never quite understood. Is it because it's getting later in the season?

It's the interaction with the jet streak specifically. We have a lot of upper-level divergence in our front right entrance region to the streak (I made a post on jet streaks earlier this year in relation to severe weather), this inevitably spread out the wind radius (and modules it more northerly). While the wind field increases in spatial area, the core of the system is no longer able to consolidate. I like to use an ice skater analogy here: when the ice skater is able to pull their arms in, they can spin faster (like we will see in the next 24-48 hours with Milton). But as the wind radius begins to expand, our ice skater's arms will be pulled outwards (i.e., deceleration of inner core vorticity). Once Milton is cutoff from the oceanic heat, the main processes that modulate structure/intensity become baroclinic.

okay thank you!

[NDG]

Want to mention that in the my 35 years tracking hurricanes as an amateur this is the first time seeing a major hurricane come in from the SW GOM towards the west central FL Coast.
A very rare event, last hurricane to affect the W coast of FL originating in the BOC was way back in 1859.