ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

lol, didn’t know a storm without an eyewall could go thru an EWRC

[InfernoFlameCat]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

How can there be an EWRC so early if the core just formed? I am a bit skeptical. Lower Rh is also a sign of a strengthening system i thought? Just trying to understand why you think an Ewrc is taking place so early

[GCANE]

 https://x.com/rawsalerts/status/1843020811235651751

[tolakram]

saved loop

[underthwx]

National Weather Service Melbourne FL
314 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

KEY MESSAGES...

- Milton is now a hurricane in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. It is
forecast to move eastward and threaten the Florida Peninsula on
Wednesday. Residents and visitors should be preparing for
hurricane conditions across East Central Florida.

- A Flood Watch is in effect through early Thursday. Bands of
heavy rain both ahead of and with Milton will be capable of
causing flooding through midweek.

- As Milton moves across the state, the risk for strong to
damaging winds and a few tornadoes increases on Wednesday.
Battering surf and some coastal flooding may begin along
portions of our coast by late Wednesday night.

----------Synoptic Overview----------

Bottom Line: The setup over the next 3-4 days will be capable of
causing multiple significant and hazardous weather impacts for East
Central Florida.

Hurricane Milton continues strengthening over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico this afternoon while beginning a slow eastward motion. Ahead
of it, weak low pressure has formed over the E Gulf and a nearly
stationary front is sharpening to its east across South Florida.
High pressure resides over the Appalachians, delivering easterly
boundary layer winds to much of Florida.

Aloft, a subtropical jet segment resides from Georgia to near
Bermuda. It is forecast to move very little through midweek, placing
Florida in its right-rear quadrant. A weak trough over the northern
Gulf is expected to steer Milton toward Central Florida by around
Wednesday. Anomalous tropical moisture, with precipitable water
values exceeding the 99th percentile of climatology, will remain
situated over the state until Milton passes.

EPS EFIs continue to range from 0.8 to 0.9, with some shift of
tails, particularly for wind, rainfall, and CAPE/shear at various
times through midweek, either with the leading frontal boundary
or as Milton passes by. This underscores the potential for very
"unusual" (impactful) weather.

In response to a trough over the Northeast and confluent flow aloft,
high pressure will settle into the South late this week, with its
influence on Florida`s weather beginning once Milton exits into the
Atlantic.

-----Short-Term Mesoscale Features-----

Mesoanalysis reveals weak coastal convergence and diffluence aloft
is working in tandem with a mid-level vorticity axis to produce
widespread showers today. We have already picked up over 4" across
portions of Brevard County. This is a harbinger of the pattern we
are in, which can churn out locally intense rain rates in a short
period. Expect continued shower development through tonight with
some spots experiencing minor flooding, especially along the coast.

As mentioned, we are tracking the development of a front somewhere
over South Florida during the next 24 hours, and weak low pressure
is forecast to ripple eastward along the front on Monday. The
combination of enhanced mesoscale convergence on the boundary,
frictional convergence at the coast, and PW values > 2.25" is likely
to produce bands of locally heavy rainfall - with the threat of
heaviest rain immediately near and north of the front, namely our
Treasure Coast communities.

-------Sensible Weather & Impacts-------

Now through Tuesday...

Rain: Heavy bands of rainfall that repeat over the same locations
will be capable of producing flooding. During this period, this
concern is concentrated along the coast and increasingly the
Treasure Coast due to the factors listed above. Localized 5"+
rainfall amounts can occur in this setup. If you are in a flood-
prone area or are traveling, keep up to date with the forecast and
listen for any Flood Advisories or Warnings that may be issued. We
may see a bit of a lull in the heavy rain on Tuesday, but scattered
to numerous showers are still in the forecast.

Coastal/Beaches: Numerous, life-threatening rip currents and rough
surf are already plaguing our beaches due to a long-period easterly
swell. Please stay out of the water during these hazardous
conditions!

With abundant clouds, highs will range from the upper 70s to low/mid
80s.

Wednesday-Thursday (Milton)...

The latest NHC track has shifted slightly southward, but there is
still some track (and especially timing) discrepancy in the
guidance. So, we should be reminded not to focus on the track itself
as impacts will spread well beyond Milton`s center. At landfall late
on Wednesday along the Gulf Coast, it is currently forecast to be at
or near major hurricane strength, and it is forecast to still be a
hurricane before becoming extratropical in the Atlantic on Thu or
Fri.

For East Central Florida:

Rain: Tropical rain bands will quickly put down heavy rain tallies,
and a prolonged period of heavy rain is indicated by the guidance
immediately north of its track. While it`s still too early to
pinpoint the exact track, the Flood Watch will continue through
Wednesday night over all counties to account for this. Soil
saturation is readily occurring now, only increasing the flood
threat with Milton. Through the event, 5 to 10" of additional
rainfall is forecast near and north of Orlando to Melbourne, with 3
to 6" to the south. Locally higher amounts are possible, especially
just north of the track of Milton. Rain intensity will quickly
diminish on Thursday. The heavy rain threat has increased a bit
since the last update due to the track drifting slightly
southward.

Wind: Tropical Storm-force winds are most likely to arrive on
Wednesday morning/midday. Milton is expected to undergo some
structural changes due to interaction with a front and the upper
jet, so Milton`s wind field is forecast to grow in size. Residents
should prepare for strong tropical storm and hurricane-force wind
gusts. If the track of Milton crosses our district, a narrow
corridor near the storm`s center could experience sustained
hurricane-force winds. Strong tropical storm-force winds may
persist for a longer period north of Cape Canaveral as Milton
moves offshore. Expect more clarity on these impacts over the next
24 hours as we hone the forecast. The wind threat has slightly
increased since the last update.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible on Wednesday as bands of
showers and storms move across East Central Florida. Expect more
details in the next day or so regarding arrival times for these
bands of storms.

Coastal/Beaches: Based on the latest track, Milton is forecast to
reach into the Atlantic either late Wednesday night or Thursday.
Behind it, northeasterly onshore winds are projected to increase
along the coast. There is a risk of coastal flooding and erosion of
beaches/dunes especially north of the track of Milton. At this time,
this concern is focused mainly north of Cape Canaveral including
Volusia County. However, battering surf is likely up and down our
coast as Milton moves offshore!

Friday through next weekend...

High pressure settling into the Southeast U.S. behind Milton will
drag in some drier air to end the week, but we still cannot rule out
some onshore-moving showers. It does look much quieter, however.
Under partly cloudy skies, expect highs in the low to mid 80s with
lows in the upper 60s to low 70s. Breezy conditions on Friday will
settle into the weekend.

[sunnyday]

When are the watches and warnings likely to go up?

[GCANE]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

How can there be an EWRC so early if the core just formed? I am a bit skeptical. Lower Rh is also a sign of a strengthening system i thought? Just trying to understand why you think an Ewrc is taking place so early

Maybe EWRC may not be the right term.
It may have a double eyewall. Helene was like that.

[Category5Kaiju]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

Wait….already? From my understanding, Milton doesn’t have an eyewall yet

[caneman]

Crazy storm, could change from every 6 hours up until Tuesday . Right now, i will just clean up debris and hope it comes in south like they changed today. Maybe south is worse for Tampa, outside of the surge because of shear. heh who knows. confusing storm

We can't clean up some of the mounds are taller than a person. Furniture, drywall etc.. Fema put a stop to local cleanup as they were taking over which has created a complete shi! show where people couldnt even go to the local dump which has delayed cleanup. This isn't political, its fact. Too much red tape. It's happening. I'm living it. There will be projectiles and things will be washed back into to the ocean.

[Michele B]

A lot of us in St. Pete are trying to calculate stay vs. go for a Cat 3 direct hit. For all of us not in a surge zone, it's trying to guess whether trees falling, roof getting ripped off or windows buckling under major hurricane winds means we should leave. I have double-pane but not impact windows, no storm shutters (not many here do). I'm in a no-evac zone. 1959 concrete-block home, but rafters are probably not tied down as required now. The roof deck is 1x10s, not plywood.

Not near any rivers that could overflow, house is on high ground, but a direct category 3 or 4 hit. Hmmmm. I saw Andrew in Miami -- admittedly a lot of bad roof construction there, and vortices like tornadoes withing the wind field. But it was ugly. Many people survived in their homes but with walls falling on top of them.

Planning the evac route is pretty tough right now too. Inland a bit, but don't know when we'll know if 100 miles or so north or south would get us out of the core.

It sounds like you are assessing your situation intelligently.

The one part of your "set-up" that would worry me is "1959...home" As you no-doubt know well, the building codes in 1959, especially in an area of Florida far AWAY from S. Florida (Keys, Miami, etc) would have been much more lax.

If there's any way to get up into your attic and check for hurricane strapping, or determine HOW your roof is attached to the walls would help you know how strong that roof set-up is.

Secondly, how old is your roof? If it is more than about 12-15 years old, it may not be trustworthy enough to withstand a Cat 3+ storm.

Good luck to you. Just remember, homes can be replaced. Your family's safety is paramount.

[underthwx]

If ever there was a better example of a cyclone forecast cone to not focus on....its Hurricane Milton and its forecast cone.....the reality of widespread impacts is increasing with Hurricane Milton.....and the emphasis is being echoed across the state of Florida's NWS....and of course the NHC....and right here on 2K!...

[skillz305]

Anxiety of "major hurricane" being right across of it in central Florida starting to kick in a bit. Kinda wish it was tuesday already to have a way better idea of where this is gonna make landfall. Since a 50-100 mile change in either direction makes such a huge difference sometimes.

[kassi]

Water and gas starting to become sparse here in CFL. Seems panic buying is starting to ramp up, but at least they're planning early

I was at Costco in Altamonte 18 mins after it opened. The line was already starting at the back of the store and water was gone.

Keeping water in these areas are a necessity.

[canebeard]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

lol, didn’t know a storm without an eyewall could go thru an EWRC

One possibility is that a banded eye is forming.

[GCANE]

Last couple eyedrops showing lower RH at 850mb.
Early indication that an EWRC may forth coming

lol, didn’t know a storm without an eyewall could go thru an EWRC

One possibility is that a banded eye is forming.

I agree. Helene was an example.
It was a bad choice of terms on my part.

[GCANE]

Recon did report a closed eye earlier and then later open to the NE

[Poonwalker]

Crazy storm, could change from every 6 hours up until Tuesday . Right now, i will just clean up debris and hope it comes in south like they changed today. Maybe south is worse for Tampa, outside of the surge because of shear. heh who knows. confusing storm

We can't clean up some of the mounds are taller than a person. Furniture, drywall etc.. Fema put a stop to local cleanup as they were taking over which has created a complete shi! show where people couldnt even go to the local dump which has delayed cleanup. This isn't political, its fact. Too much red tape. It's happening. I'm living it. There will be projectiles and things will be washed back into to the ocean.

Yeah. This is going to be really bad here. I feel terrible for the ones that have put in so much sweat trying to rebuild and cleanup only to have their efforts muted by this thing. I won’t go into the politics but FEMA has not been left capable of doing what is being required. Just going to get even worse.

[Abdullah]

What situations are best and worst for storm surge in Tampa Bay? Is it worse if the storm comes in north, on Tampa, or to its south?

[Zonacane]

https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... &llval=OFF
I don't see anything to suggest structural issues quite yet, the forming core is jumping around a bit, but that is to be expected.

[jfk08c]

What situations are best and worst for storm surge in Tampa Bay? Is it worse if the storm comes in north, on Tampa, or to its south?

North. The storm is spinning counter clockwise so to the north it would be pushing water into the bay. South, it would be pushing water out