ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Poonwalker]

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 86.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.

Wow that’s a huge jump from last advisory.

That’s weakening?

[underthwx]

The NHC 4 pm update is not good news....Milton's intensity predictions are significantly higher....and according to the NHC....may very likely be higher later on.....this cyclone has a very real potential to be a category 5 cyclone....absolutely a dangerous situation unfolding across Florida....and my heart is heavy for yall....

I'm glad that the NHC didn't increase the predicated landfall wind speed at least, probably because of the strong shear they are talking about. Still dangerous hurricane no matter what.

Agree!.....which in a post I just made....I stated that Milton has potential to reach category 5 status....but not at landfall....I apologize for not making myself clear my friends...

[ElectricStorm]

AF plane just took off, we'll see how much it's deepened since the last pass soon

[Cat5James]

This is going to suck.

https://johngaltfla.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Screen-Shot-10-06-24-at-04.55-PM.jpg

If this holds im taking a direct hit in Manatee County

[johngaltfla]

Fire Chief Paul Dezzi urges Longboat Key residents to “leave as soon as you can”

https://www.mysuncoast.com/2024/10/06/f ... n-you-can/

via WWSB, Sarasota

Isn't Longboat Key one of the places that had significant damage from Helene? I wouldn't think many people would have been back at their Longboat Key homes?

The condos had lower floor damage. This one will damage the 2nd and 3rd floors potentially. Winds are projected to be much higher. I've not seen Paul Dellegatto on WTVT 13 this worried in a long long time.

[Abdullah]

The graphics have just been released and the time of arrival of high-speed winds is stable

Earliest reasonable arrival time of Tropical storm winds reaches the gulf coast at 8 PM Tuesday
Most likely arrival time of Tropical storm winds reaches the gulf coast at 8 AM Wednesday

Landfall is expected on the Florida gulf coast Wednesday afternoon

[Team Getterdun]

I'm quite shocked that the weather channel doesn't have 24 hour coverage yet. They are still playing dumb shows like "highway thru hell" and other shows all day.

Try Fox Weather if you get it. It's OTA as well as YouTube TV

[ConvergenceZone]

The NHC 4 pm update is not good news....Milton's intensity predictions are significantly higher....and according to the NHC....may very likely be higher later on.....this cyclone has a very real potential to be a category 5 cyclone....absolutely a dangerous situation unfolding across Florida....and my heart is heavy for yall....

I'm glad that the NHC didn't increase the predicated landfall wind speed at least, probably because of the strong shear they are talking about. Still dangerous hurricane no matter what.

Agree!.....which in a post I just made....I stated that Milton has potential to reach category 5 status....but not at landfall....I apologize for not making myself clear my friends...

No, you are good. Although it probably don't matter if it peaks at cat 3 or peaks at cat 5 if the landfall strength is still expected to be a cat 3.

[Abdullah]

I'm glad that the NHC didn't increase the predicated landfall wind speed at least, probably because of the strong shear they are talking about. Still dangerous hurricane no matter what.

Agree!.....which in a post I just made....I stated that Milton has potential to reach category 5 status....but not at landfall....I apologize for not making myself clear my friends...

No, you are good. Although it probably don't matter if it peaks at cat 3 or peaks at cat 5 if the landfall strength is still expected to be a cat 3.

It matters for storm surge. Since storm surge formation is cumulative, the surge will be much larger if it peaks at Cat 5 vs Cat 3.

[aspen]

Looking pretty ragged all of a sudden, maybe it gulped a bit of dry air.

That raggedness will be VERY temporary and short-lived if that's the case and then the monster will take off again.

That huge burst wrapping around the southeast side should take care of any dry air intrusions that occurred earlier when it was starting to wrap up its core. Suspect the pressure has still been dropping despite the leveling off in appearance over the past couple of hours

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm quite shocked that the weather channel doesn't have 24 hour coverage yet. They are still playing dumb shows like "highway thru hell" and other shows all day.

Try Fox Weather if you get it. It's OTA as well as YouTube TV

Oh so Fox Weather currently has 24 hour coverage of the storm right now? I didn't realize that. Thanks for the heads up. The hurricane coverage is really the only thing I like about the weather channel, due to the NHC experts that are on there.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm glad that the NHC didn't increase the predicated landfall wind speed at least, probably because of the strong shear they are talking about. Still dangerous hurricane no matter what.

Agree!.....which in a post I just made....I stated that Milton has potential to reach category 5 status....but not at landfall....I apologize for not making myself clear my friends...

No, you are good. Although it probably don't matter if it peaks at cat 3 or peaks at cat 5 if the landfall strength is still expected to be a cat 3.

It probably would have an impact on surge potential, albeit not as much as size would. That being said, an ewrc that stunts its intensity ceiling but expands its size would probably result in a worse impact at landfall

[HurricaneBelle]

Just checking back in after taking a mental health break from this board for about 3 hours, couldn't bear to look at one more apocalyptic model run.

Unless the projected track starts shifting significantly south of where it is now, I can't rule out the eyewall in Clearwater so the plan is to get out of Dodge.

[ConvergenceZone]

That raggedness will be VERY temporary and short-lived if that's the case and then the monster will take off again.

That huge burst wrapping around the southeast side should take care of any dry air intrusions that occurred earlier when it was starting to wrap up its core. Suspect the pressure has still been dropping despite the leveling off in appearance over the past couple of hours

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

Although if you read the last NHC discussion, they are obviously seeing something different with the insane strength increases they are predicting.

[Sciencerocks]

[tropicwatch]

Both AF and NOAA in the air. AF should be the first one to get there.

[storm_in_a_teacup]

Wha? He's a hurricane already? That was fast

[psyclone]

Just checking back in after taking a mental health break from this board for about 3 hours, couldn't bear to look at one more apocalyptic model run.

Unless the projected track starts shifting significantly south of where it is now, I can't rule out the eyewall in Clearwater so the plan is to get out of Dodge.

I don't blame you. I am very uneasy. Wind probs continue to relentlessly increase.

[prairie2]

Oh so Fox Weather currently has 24 hour coverage of the storm right now? I didn't realize that. Thanks for the heads up. The hurricane coverage is really the only thing I like about the weather channel, due to the NHC experts that are on there.

Bryan Norcross is their hurricane expert. He comments fairly frequently.

[Bigpapa]

Pinellis county just went mandatory evac zones A-C
they only did A for Helene

I live in Pinellas county and I haven't seen anything about Mandatory evac for anything except A and low lying areas prone to flooding and Nursing homes. I can't find any information that has changed yet. I am sure it will but as of Now, It's only A.

Hey Flwxguy I am your neighbor over here in Countryside. Every model I have looked at this afternoon is trending north of us. Stay safe