ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

150 mph gusts near landfall. Ugh.

[eastcoastFL]

The convection keeps pumping and expanding around the center. He’s sure got a lot of warm gulf water ahead.

[aspen]

That huge burst wrapping around the southeast side should take care of any dry air intrusions that occurred earlier when it was starting to wrap up its core. Suspect the pressure has still been dropping despite the leveling off in appearance over the past couple of hours

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

Although if you read the last NHC discussion, they are obviously seeing something different with the insane strength increases they are predicting.

Well the HAFS models still blow it up even with a little bit of a hiccup over the next 12 hours. I have no doubt Milton will go bonkers, but if the models are right, it still has a little bit to go before it lets loose.

[ConvergenceZone]

Oh so Fox Weather currently has 24 hour coverage of the storm right now? I didn't realize that. Thanks for the heads up. The hurricane coverage is really the only thing I like about the weather channel, due to the NHC experts that are on there.

Bryan Norcross is their hurricane expert. He comments fairly frequently.

Cool. I don't want to get off topic, but thanks. I never knew Fox Weather even existed lol. I use to love The Weather Channel.
Let's hope Milton runs into some big shear close to land, but it's probably not going to make much difference as it's still going to be dangerous and potentially catastrophic for some areas.

[NAVAIDNICK]

 https://x.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1843030681078956426

Sarasota County Hurricane Milton Updates (as of 4:30 p.m. Oct. 5):

Evacuations: Sarasota County is urging the community to take this storm seriously. The county will be calling for evacuations in Levels A and potentially Levels A and B ahead of Hurricane Milton, which is expected to reach major hurricane strength before impacting our community.

If you live in Level A or B, a manufactured home community or a mobile or boat home, NOW is the time to implement your plan, whether it’s staying with a family member or friend in a different level or leaving the area. If your plan is to leave the area, do so now. This will be one of the largest evacuations along our state’s west coast. If you wait, you will get stuck in traffic.

If you do not live in Level A or B, a manufactured home community or a mobile or boat home - now is the time to prepare your property and ensure you have your supplies, such as water, non-perishable food and medicines ready for a minimum of seven days for each member of your family.

Check on your neighbor - work together to prepare. Current projections have this being a major hurricane and impact for our community.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

The possibility that Milton could reach or even exceed the threshold to become a Category 5 is another wildcard we need to watch... even if it gets absolutely blasted with 40 knots of shear, it'll take a lot to bring it down below Category 3.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Milton
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jaz_ZvFhe1E

[sponger]

That is a lot of moisture moving towards Florida. The NHC said it was in the 99 percentile in Climatology? Florida is soaked already. I thought we had dried out a bit but the ditches are filling as we speak. The tree damage and power outages will be substantial.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=14L&product=wv_mid

[WaveBreaking]

New VHTs firing on the NE eyewall in mesoscale imagery

[al78]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

[Keldeo1997]

The possibility that Milton could reach or even exceed the threshold to become a Category 5 is another wildcard we need to watch... even if it gets absolutely blasted with 40 knots of shear, it'll take a lot to bring it down below Category 3.

Yea if a super high end peak came to fruition say 180 mph, it could weaken 50 mph by landfall and still be a Cat 4

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Milton... THAT QUICK???

Seriously, I fell asleep to an early level TS and now I woke up to a hurricane well ahead of schedule. To think we thought the models were just going bonkers.

Loss of words for Florida. They need to catch a break.

[eastcoastFL]

That huge burst wrapping around the southeast side should take care of any dry air intrusions that occurred earlier when it was starting to wrap up its core. Suspect the pressure has still been dropping despite the leveling off in appearance over the past couple of hours

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

Although if you read the last NHC discussion, they are obviously seeing something different with the insane strength increases they are predicting.

They’re looking at the intensity guidance and some are showing a cat 5 in 36 hours. At least 3 of them are.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/stormin ... latest.png

[psyclone]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

Both Ian and Irma emptied the bay with a reverse surge owing to offshore winds. This one could do the same if it ducks in south of here. There's a fine line between a 15' water rise and a 5' water reduction...I don't know which side of the tracks we end up on...but there's a lot of frayed nerves around here...

[Hurricane Mike]

I have a feeling that even if Milton weakens, it will spread so large in size, the surge will be exacerbated.

[USTropics]

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

Although if you read the last NHC discussion, they are obviously seeing something different with the insane strength increases they are predicting.

Well the HAFS models still blow it up even with a little bit of a hiccup over the next 12 hours. I have no doubt Milton will go bonkers, but if the models are right, it still has a little bit to go before it lets loose.

The one hiccup I could see is a potential dry slot developing (will get to that in a moment), but if we look at the 4 hurricane models for 00z Monday (which is 8PM tonight), steady strengthening is expected as Milton builds an inner core and keeps expanding his CDO:


Particularly, I want to highlight this HAFS-A run:


We have a vague resemblance of this on visible satellite imagery. I've highlighted our hot tower in red here, and the wrapping of dry air (pink) dictated by the opaque cloud structure here in visible. In yellow I've highlighted updrafts occurring as our dry air hits the inflow channel and causes temporary instability. Either this does get wrapped in like the HAFS-A, which would temporarily halt intensification, or that hot tower builds north and quickly shuts it down:

[vbhoutex]

I have a feeling that even if Milton weakens, it will spread so large in size, the surge will be exacerbated.

Most of what I have seen says Milton will grow in size, even if it starts to weaken before landfall, imo unlikely but hoping for. I wouldn't wish this situation on anyone. I have seen up close and personal how bad it can be.

[skillz305]

Indian River County

A decision on school closures will be announced Monday, Oct. 7 by 2 p.m. following an update from the Indian River County Emergency Services Center.

[islandgirl45]

Zooming in on the NHC's interactive map, it looks like the East Coast exit point on the current track is around south Cocoa Beach. That's about 70 miles south of my home town. I'm trying to figure what kind of wind speeds I should expect that far away from the center, given the forecast intensity and track?

[eastcoastFL]

I have a feeling that even if Milton weakens, it will spread so large in size, the surge will be exacerbated.

Most of what I have seen says Milton will grow in size, even if it starts to weaken before landfall, imo unlikely but hoping for. I wouldn't wish this situation on anyone. I have seen up close and personal how bad it can be.

It looks like Milton will start to interact with the trough late tomorrow and begin to blow up in size.