ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[USTropics]

Zooming in on the NHC's interactive map, it looks like the East Coast exit point on the current track is around south Cocoa Beach. That's about 70 miles south of my home town. I'm trying to figure what kind of wind speeds I should expect that far away from the center, given the forecast intensity and track?

If you're on the northside of this system as it's cutting across the state, prepare for some nasty gusts. See my posts here and here on why we expect the wind field to expand. The NHC took note of this as well on the 5PM discussion:

Later on, vertical wind shear is
forecast to markedly increase as Milton approaches Florida, and
some weakening is anticipated. However, the regional hurricane
models are showing the system growing even if it weakens, and we are
expecting Milton to be a large hurricane at landfall, with very
dangerous impacts spread out over a big area.

We don't have to go very far back to see a recent example, where Helene had gusts well into Georgia that were ~100 mph (as it also transitioned to extratropical). In fact, we even had a gust of 68 mph all the way up in Indianapolis from Helene! I would expect we would see gusts exceeding 100mph far inland with Milton given the current intensity guidance, in particular on the north side. Do not mess around with this storm, even further inland.

[galaxy401]

HAFS-A/B show it holding mostly steady with only slight deepening and a kinda ragged IR appearance for most of the night, so if they’re right, I don’t think the pressure has dropped that much. But we shall see.

Although if you read the last NHC discussion, they are obviously seeing something different with the insane strength increases they are predicting.

Well the HAFS models still blow it up even with a little bit of a hiccup over the next 12 hours. I have no doubt Milton will go bonkers, but if the models are right, it still has a little bit to go before it lets loose.

Well Milton has already let loose considering how quick it took to become a hurricane.

[sunnyday]

When will the watches and warnings be shown? Thank you for your reply.

[underthwx]

Zooming in on the NHC's interactive map, it looks like the East Coast exit point on the current track is around south Cocoa Beach. That's about 70 miles south of my home town. I'm trying to figure what kind of wind speeds I should expect that far away from the center, given the forecast intensity and track?

Given your proximity to the center....at a minimum tropical Strom wind speeds....with gusts to hurricane force cannot be ruled out....especially given that Milton's track is not set in stone....its too close for comfort my friend....I think a good illustration is the wind speeds graphic on the NHC Hurricane Milton updates....

[GCANE]

Rotating Hot Towers right on the CoC.
Eyewall building.
I expect the eye will be shrinking in diameter.
Wouldn't be surprised if we see 10 nm

[johngaltfla]

When will the watches and warnings be shown? Thank you for your reply.

Probably with the 2300 ET advisory

[eastcoastFL]

When will the watches and warnings be shown? Thank you for your reply.

Either 11pm or 5am for the west coast.

[USTropics]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

The surge would be significant if Tampa were to take a direct hit at that angle. Here is anticipated surge for a category 4 hurricane (red is 9+ feet, orange is 6-9 feet, yellow is 3-6 feet):

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

Here is another look for a category 3 hurricane at mean tide:


Essentially, the bay is a shallow estuary, with an average depth of 11 feet. The surge would be truly historic and significant, something living residents in Tampa area have never experienced before.

[ronjon]

When will the watches and warnings be shown? Thank you for your reply.

The NHC said in their 5 pm discussion watches will be issued either late tonight or tomorrow morning.

[Abdullah]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

The surge would be significant if Tampa were to take a direct hit at that angle. Here is anticipated surge for a category 4 hurricane (red is 9+ feet, orange is 6-9 feet, yellow is 3-6 feet):
https://i.imgur.com/h3Ja1Mm.png
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

Here is another look for a category 3 hurricane at mean tide:
https://i.imgur.com/zV3mDTZ.png

Essentially, the bay is a shallow estuary, with an average depth of 11 feet. The surge would be truly historic and significant, something living residents in Tampa area have never experienced before.

Is there a tool you used to make this?

[fllawyer]

In Pinellas County, dump trucks are getting police escorts to what I can only assume to be picking up and removing debris. Definitely an ominous feeling watching those convoys go by.

[eastcoastFL]

When will the watches and warnings be shown? Thank you for your reply.

Either 11pm or 5am for the west coast.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for your replies . Everyone stay safe!

[Charleswachal]

So my aunt lost her home in Hurricane Ian in Cape Coral. Now she has rebuilt and they are smack dab in the middle of the cone again. She built it even higher above sea level so hopefully this time it will stay away from her place.

[islandgirl45]

When will all of today's recon flight data be incorporated into the model runs? Will some of that info make it for the 11pm track update?

[BobHarlem]

Florida's a little wet ahead of Milton

[USTropics]

I am watching with interest the developing and potentially very destructive situation with Milton. The forecast track has been fairly consistent in the hurricane passing very close to Tampa. What are the chances of this hurricane pushing a surge into Tampa bay which gets funneled into the heavily populated areas of Tampa and St Petersburg? I had the same thoughts during Ian's approach to Florida a couple of years ago when it was originally forecast to pass very near Tampa to the west but the hurricane came ashore well to the south.

The surge would be significant if Tampa were to take a direct hit at that angle. Here is anticipated surge for a category 4 hurricane (red is 9+ feet, orange is 6-9 feet, yellow is 3-6 feet):
https://i.imgur.com/h3Ja1Mm.png
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/203f772571cb48b1b8b50fdcc3272e2c/page/Category-4/

Here is another look for a category 3 hurricane at mean tide:
https://i.imgur.com/zV3mDTZ.png

Essentially, the bay is a shallow estuary, with an average depth of 11 feet. The surge would be truly historic and significant, something living residents in Tampa area have never experienced before.

Is there a tool you used to make this?

It's some images I saved from years ago that were generated from the SLOSH model (https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/mdl/slosh). There used to be a SLOSH display program (SDP), but that was developed in the 90s. I don't believe the SLOSH model is still operational (replaced with this product for operations - https://experience.arcgis.com/experienc ... ategory-4/), some older METS may still have it though.

[Grumpy]

Florida's a little wet ahead of Milton

https://i.imgur.com/6GGAisu.gif

I was driving around Sarasota today looking for supplies. There are a lot of retention ponds/canals already at max capacity. There will be flooding before it gets here.

[USTropics]

When will all of today's recon flight data be incorporated into the model runs? Will some of that info make it for the 11pm track update?

The upper level mission data currently ongoing will likely make it into the 00z model guidance (after the 11PM advisory). Aircraft recon mission data from last night/this morning that was investigating the structure and wind field of Milton will definitely be in the 18z model runs.

[aspen]

Big change I see in the latest GFS.
The southern shift brings Milton close to the Yucatan coast and will be at the tail end of the UL Trof.
This is usually where an anticyclonic wave break occurs.
So it looks like Milton will escape some part of the forecasted shear and may further strengthen under the anticyclone.
Once it gets east of the Yucatan it will pick up a large CAPE feed from the W Carib and will be over the Loop Current for a much longer period of time.
A worst-case trend seems to be developing.

What do you think of the possibility for Milton getting so close to the Yucatan that it gets disrupted/makes landfall? That would be a worst-case scenario for them, but spare Florida from one.