ATL: MILTON - Models

[TampaWxLurker]

949 vs 961 mb at 12z Wed on the 12z vs 18z GFS

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS landfall near Homosassa Springs. Quite a bit later than the last run, Thursday morning. Exits into the Atlantic at Daytona Beach.

[SouthFLTropics]

GFS run to run consistency on timing is concerning enough to make me question its viability.


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[Travorum]

FWIW GFS shows landfall at the same time that ICON did, albeit much farther north. GFS isn't alone in slowing Milton down this model cycle.

[Hurricaneman]

Usually when the Gfs is on an island of its own it’s usually wrong

[Blown Away]

ESE for 48 hours, then NE to NNE from 48 to 96 hours, the hard ENE turn… Very odd track with sharp turns, a smoother track is more likely IMO…

[HurricaneFrances04]

How much of the G-IV data made it to the 18Z GFS run? Looks like better agreement among the GEFS, through 60 hours at least.

[floridasun]

new GEFS coming out look like more south still coming out now 54 hours only it bit north of cuba due west of cuba and GEPS south of tampa asland fall here link both https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=48 here gef https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0612&fh=48

[caneman]

Usually when the Gfs is on an island of its own it’s usually wrong

Simply untrue. Gfs was pretty spot on with Helene and others fell inline

[LandoWill]

GFS sticking to its north run, so either it knows something others don't, or it's wrong.

[psyclone]

Honestly with the consistent short-term southerly trends I wonder if this thing just ends up getting tangled up in the Yucatan for a bit. AI-based Euro is nearly a landfall. Explosively intensifying major hurricanes are erratic with motion, especially ones that are slowly moving. That would take the lid off intensity quite a bit.

I've been thinking that. I will never forget the suicide run that Isidore (V 2002) performed while running parallel to the north coast of the Yucatan....it suddenly just turned straight in and wrecked itself on land...ultimately emerging as a northbound slop storm thereafter. Could we get a similar miracle here?

[aspen]

Honestly with the consistent short-term southerly trends I wonder if this thing just ends up getting tangled up in the Yucatan for a bit. AI-based Euro is nearly a landfall. Explosively intensifying major hurricanes are erratic with motion, especially ones that are slowly moving. That would take the lid off intensity quite a bit.

ICON has a landfall or a grazing blow too. If this happens, we’d be looking at a vastly different system heading into Florida…perhaps already turning post-tropical if it’s already weakened by the Yucatan.

[johngaltfla]

GFS run to run consistency on timing is concerning enough to make me question its viability.


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100% ICON and Euro seem much more consistent with not so many wild variations. Thus the more southern solutions to the path we're seeing.

[AxaltaRacing24]

GFS run to run consistency on timing is concerning enough to make me question its viability.


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100% ICON and Euro seem much more consistent with not so many wild variations. Thus the more southern solutions to the path we're seeing.

GFS is the only respectable model up there right now. Not saying it’s wrong, but.

[AxaltaRacing24]

This also reminds me a bit of Dorian 2019. Timing keeps getting pushed back until it leads to a shift in track. We will see what happens, but a constant delay in arrival increases the range of error.

[Weathertracker96]

It seems some of the GEFS members start to move directly east with some north of Tampa and south and down the coast.

[Nimbus]

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3WQQGKRn/gfs-mslp-wind-seus-fh66-trend-2.gif [/url]

GFS Trend

Much slower track trending with the GFS which changes the upper air dynamics.
All the models track pretty close to or south of Scorpion reef and the bend north after that is a little mind boggling to calculate. The slower track must allow time to build more ridging east of Milton if the landfall is still north of Tampa Bay?

should be able to see it evolving (or not) in global model run pressure isobars.

[Fancy1002]

Have the other models been delayed for some reason?

[StormPyrate]

wasnt the gfs the main reason nhc would not come off the Talahasse west track? that did not pan out for helene at all

[Steve]

Usually when the Gfs is on an island of its own it’s usually wrong

Simply untrue. Gfs was pretty spot on with Helene and others fell inline

It hit some runs but I agree with Hman. It rarely wins on its own, but sometime it does.