ATL: MILTON - Models

[caneman]

wasnt the gfs the main reason nhc would not come off the Talahasse west track? that did not pan out for helene at all

It was east of Tallahassee. They put too much weight into all of the models for Helene.. This time they seem to be relying more on the tried and true Euro and Gfs

[USTropics]

wasnt the gfs the main reason nhc would not come off the Talahasse west track? that did not pan out for helene at all

Partly true, but let's also remember the ensemble mean for both the GFS and ECMWF were left of their respective operational/deterministic guidance. It was really the TVCN track (a consensus blend of multiple models with bias corrections) that the NHC doesn't deviate much from for the true reason that the track did not shift until 5PM the day of. Check out this graphic for 6 straight TVCN runs from the 24th-25th:


If you look at bias errors from Helene, you can see the NHC/official track is almost a mirror of the TVCN track (and one of the rare times where they underperformed compared to the global/deterministic model runs). It's another lesson in that forecasting shortwave cutoff lows is difficult:

[aspen]

South shift on both the HAFS-A/B, plus a delay to the start of RI (especially on the HAFS-A).

Update: close passage seems to disrupt Milton on the HAFS-B simulated IR imagery.

[tolakram]

South shift on both the HAFS-A/B, plus a delay to the start of RI (especially on the HAFS-A).

Update: close passage seems to disrupt Milton on the HAFS-B simulated IR imagery.

Yet stronger after RI

[tolakram]

Both A & B running

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[otowntiger]

revisiting the 12z euro, it looks like it manages to stay right in the bay up the Egmont Channel, not necessarily Bradenton.

https://i.imgur.com/aTKBNvw.png

Which image is from the most recent run?

That is the most recent run.

lol- you show two different images presumably one was the previous one and one is the most recent one- just wanted to know which one is which?

[floridasun]

https://i.imgur.com/WuaVVI4.png

that pretty south? touching yucatan would that chance track that hurr will take?

[tolakram]

https://i.imgur.com/WuaVVI4.png

that pretty south? touching yucatan would that chance track that hurr will take?

Not sure, I joked earlier we've had a few storms that were not supposed to go south enough to hit land and did. Ike, Maria IIRC, now Milton?

[tolakram]

A little weaker and a little slower.

[TampaWxLurker]

HAFS-B slower, south/west of 12z. Still way out in the gulf west of Ft Myers at 00z Thursday. About the same strength, maybe a touch weaker.

[StormPyrate]

A little weaker and a little slower.

https://i.imgur.com/5Nonz04.png

wow that eye gets big at the end, wonder how big they are expecting at landfall

[Frank P]

still looks like its heading north of Tampa Bay... TBD
HMON north of tampa bay

[tolakram]

[TampaWxLurker]

Getting the heck sheared out of if/dry air intrusion into the core on the 18z HAFS-B in the last 9-12 hours before landfall.

[BobHarlem]

HAFS-B Looks to be Indian Rocks Beach or maybe Clearwater late Thursday morning.

[Frank P]

HMON

[BobHarlem]

18z HAFS-B Clearwater Late Thursday Morning, Atlantic exit north of Cape Canaveral.

[chris_fit]

18z Euro right up Tampa Bay