Crazy model runs?

[SconnieCane]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

[kevin]

887 mb / 166 kt on the 00z HAFS-B run for Milton.

[CFLHurricane]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

2024 is fully intent on drop kicking all of us off our home & auto insurance. I’ve knocked on all the woods with fingers crossed over lucky rabbit feet that Milton gets his wings clipped and the GFS is full of it in the midrange per usual.

[Travorum]

Milton continues to provide insane model runs, only for the storm to overperform the models in the short run. Anyway here's a 884mb/172kts frame on 12z HAFS-B.

[ChrisH-UK]

00Z suite this evening has given us a couple involving soon-to-be Hurricane Milton.

HAFS-B with not one, but two sub-900mb peaks.

GFS with a second major hurricane slamming into the Florida peninsula from the Gulf within 10 days after Milton makes landfall.

Turned out to be a sub 900mb storm after all.

[aspen]

Milton continues to provide insane model runs, only for the storm to overperform the models in the short run. Anyway here's a 884mb/172kts frame on 12z HAFS-B.

https://i.imgur.com/3FS0obM.png

Since this nailed Milton’s 897 mbar peak tonight, I wouldn’t rule out that insane second peak.

[MarioProtVI]

The HAFS-A went mad with power on the latest SHEM invest. This is definitely the highest I’ve ever seen any model make a storm, outside of the broken 777 mb Mangkhut run. 227 kt is a whopping 261 mph i.e an F5 tornado!!!  https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1910304273608630526

[Travorum]

The HAFS-A went mad with power on the latest SHEM invest. This is definitely the highest I’ve ever seen any model make a storm, outside of the broken 777 mb Mangkhut run. 227 kt is a whopping 261 mph i.e an F5 tornado!!! https://x.com/zeb199818/status/1910304273608630526
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857251938772582411/1359892255674204431/IMG_4682.png?ex=67f921db&is=67f7d05b&hm=221e37ac3a6199bc47208a3795851447012b06ff373f173c95f4563fda35c973&

The crazy thing is the 06z run didn't come out of nowhere, the 18z run had 896mb/177kt and the 12z yesterday peaked at 884mb/198kt — a run which by itself would be insane if not for the 06z.


Also with the 06z run, the peak intensity is just at the end of the run. If the run were extended a few timesteps, its very possible there would have been a lower pressure as it was dropping at about 6mb/hr in the final timestep. Per Andy on twitter ocean coupling does appear to be working correctly:
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1910355573767352351

[Blown Away]

227.3 knots = 261 mph