ATL: MILTON - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLpanhandle91]

Contrary to present motion, the NE/ SW orientation of the overall envelope suggests to me that it's forward track should begin to start gaining a little latitude quite soon.

An often overlooked and very simple way to determine short-term storm direction. Follow the higher clouds in front of it. I wish I could find the clip of John Hope saying that.

[zzzh]

ERC is definitely possible

[zhukm29]

Newest recon pass has 977 mb extrapolated, 82 kt FL in the NW...

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/fAhuTY2.png
ERC is definitely possible

18z HAFS-A kind shows this, but is smaller than what’s seen here. This should keep it in check for a little longer.

[Zonacane]

https://i.imgur.com/fAhuTY2.png
ERC is definitely possible

A long way to go before that contracts enough to choke off the inner eye

[Zonacane]

50 mm/hr rain rate

[zhukm29]

 https://x.com/cyclonicwx/status/1843093003285725430

[Travorum]

2nd Air Force pass VDM reports the eyewall has closed after that burst of convection north of the core.

URNT12 KNHC 070103
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142024
A. 07/00:44:20Z
B. 22.53 deg N 093.32 deg W
C. 700 mb 2931 m
D. 980 mb
E. 085 deg 3 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 66 kt
I. 025 deg 9 nm 00:42:00Z
J. 136 deg 70 kt
K. 036 deg 14 nm 00:40:30Z
L. 71 kt
M. 224 deg 12 nm 00:48:00Z
N. 314 deg 81 kt
O. 224 deg 12 nm 00:48:00Z
P. 10 C / 3047 m
Q. 15 C / 3048 m
R. 13 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1.5 nm
U. AF302 0514A MILTON OB 14
MAX FL WIND 81 KT 224 / 12 NM 00:48:00Z
;

[Michele B]

5pm they actually didn't move the track much, if anything a little more south slightly

And I'm listening to Dr. Knabb on TWC right now, and he's saying they are now thinking the cold front that's digging in now and keeping Milton southerly will move out and he'll take a pretty sharp "left turn" and may end up much further north as it hits FL. Possibly near Cedar Key. They don't need that!

[cheezyWXguy]

Newest recon pass has 977 mb extrapolated, 82 kt FL in the NW...

Between the two ongoing flights, hurricane force FL winds have now been found in all quadrants. What a change from earlier.

[Travorum]

As Alex Boreham noted on twitter, TDR data shows Milton is pretty vertically aligned

[Cyclenall]

Will it make a run for 3 tonight?

I say no, there is something offbeat with Milton despite the impressive VHTs swirling, strengthening the eyewall. There was that ragged east side/dry slot earlier which is resolved, but since there is only <3 hr left for today/tonight I can expect a run for CAT2 at RI pace not EI. I was getting Wilma vibes late last night, currently thinking standard RI then an acceleration of intensity mid-Mon. I'm fascinated by the inner core mechanics of this one.

[chaser1]

Contrary to present motion, the NE/ SW orientation of the overall envelope suggests to me that it's forward track should begin to start gaining a little latitude quite soon.

An often overlooked and very simple way to determine short-term storm direction. Follow the higher clouds in front of it. I wish I could find the clip of John Hope saying that.

You nailed it He was one of two people that I recall stating that. The other was my favorite NHC Hurricane Forcaster - Gil Clark, who shared a wealth of knowledge during many conversations. That was a long time ago.

[CFLHurricane]

5pm they actually didn't move the track much, if anything a little more south slightly

And I'm listening to Dr. Knabb on TWC right now, and he's saying they are now thinking the cold front that's digging in now and keeping Milton southerly will move out and he'll take a pretty sharp "left turn" and may end up much further north as it hits FL. Possibly near Cedar Key. They don't need that!

No one needs it, but I’m not against the proposition especially as he’ll get shredded by shear the further north he goes. Here’s to hoping the forecast of dramatic weakening becomes a realized prophecy.

[eastcoastFL]

The chart for the recon flight looks like it measured mslp sub 980 but the last center fix is 982mb with 9kts of wind. Has there been a recent reading I missed?

[ElectricStorm]

The chart for the recon flight looks like it measured mslp sub 980 but the last center fix is 982mb with 9kts of wind. Has there been a recent reading I missed?

There's two planes in there right now and the more recent of the two drops has 980mb

[Travorum]

Andy Hazelton on the trough interaction on approach to Florida and what that means for storm surge:
 https://x.com/AndyHazelton/status/1843069503980134446

[cheezyWXguy]

The chart for the recon flight looks like it measured mslp sub 980 but the last center fix is 982mb with 9kts of wind. Has there been a recent reading I missed?

Extrapolated pressure isn’t perfect and usually reads a couple mb too low. Pressure is officially confirmed via dropsonde

[jasons2k]

Contrary to present motion, the NE/ SW orientation of the overall envelope suggests to me that it's forward track should begin to start gaining a little latitude quite soon.

An often overlooked and very simple way to determine short-term storm direction. Follow the higher clouds in front of it. I wish I could find the clip of John Hope saying that.

You nailed it He was one of two people that I recall stating that. The other was my favorite NHC Hurricane Forcaster - Gil Clark, who shared a wealth of knowledge during many conversations. That was a long time ago.

We learned a lot when all we had were satellite loops, recon, and statistical models. It literally forced good forecasters to look for the tiniest nuances or clues in satellite imagery.

The great TV mets like Roy Leep in Tampa and Harold Taft in DFW espoused taking a short walk outside before going on-air to get a “sense” of the atmosphere. It’s amazing what you could observe with the naked eye.

[zzzh]

This pass is 20min after that F16 pass above. Compared with that, the outer rainband weakened a lot and the inner core (especially the NW side) is a lot stronger.