ATL: MILTON - Models

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jfk08c
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#641 Postby jfk08c » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:19 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
jfk08c wrote:Question for anyone who may have a better idea than me. When looking at the 10m winds on the model runs, they all seemingly disappear inland. Is that a quirk with the models or something? I find it hard to believe Central Florida won't see any significant winds from this

The strongest winds rarely make their way very far inland. Land imparts a lot of friction on wind which makes it lose momentum. Windspeeds are highest at sea because there’s nothing to slow it down. Compare that to land with all of its trees, buildings, and terrain that all work to stop the wind.

While I agree, I think the effect is over exaggerated on the models. Winds reduce substantially once you move inland from the coast, but it doesn’t drop from 100kt to 25kt in a couple of miles


Yeah, that was my main thinking. I'm aware strongest winds will always be on the coast because there's no land interaction to slow it down. However, seeing 10m winds basically disappear across the entire peninsula while you still have a pressure equivalent of a Cat 1/2 over top of you never made much sense to me. I saw a couple model runs like that with Irma, almost like it didn't calculate wind speed over certain parts of the state
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#642 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:25 pm

For those debating wind speed, it's the gusts, not the overall wind speed, especially if interacting with a front.

euro winds
Image

gusts
Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#643 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:28 pm

18z Euro-AI into Sarasota early Thursday morning.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#644 Postby eastcoastFL » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:30 pm

tolakram wrote:For those debating wind speed, it's the gusts, not the overall wind speed, especially if interacting with a front.

euro winds
https://i.imgur.com/i53VtpB.png

gusts
https://i.imgur.com/Zm8ZGow.png


Is this when it makes landfall on the West Coast?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#645 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:33 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
tolakram wrote:For those debating wind speed, it's the gusts, not the overall wind speed, especially if interacting with a front.

euro winds
https://i.imgur.com/i53VtpB.png

gusts
https://i.imgur.com/Zm8ZGow.png


Is this when it makes landfall on the West Coast?


Those are 3 hour gusts predicted at end of run, so somewhere near the east coast. 6h gusts are a little bit higher, mainly near landfall location.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#646 Postby jfk08c » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:38 pm

tolakram wrote:
eastcoastFL wrote:
tolakram wrote:For those debating wind speed, it's the gusts, not the overall wind speed, especially if interacting with a front.

euro winds
https://i.imgur.com/i53VtpB.png

gusts
https://i.imgur.com/Zm8ZGow.png


Is this when it makes landfall on the West Coast?


Those are 3 hour gusts predicted at end of run, so somewhere near the east coast. 6h gusts are a little bit higher, mainly near landfall location.


Thanks for that graphic. I looked it up earlier but hit an ad and thought it was asking me to pay for long range. Definitely paints a better picture of inland effects
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#647 Postby HurryKane » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:41 pm

tolakram wrote:18Z Euro

If you're favorite model has changed because you don't like where it sends the storm then you might be doing something wrong. :)

https://i.imgur.com/D7VzaBK.gif


That pulsing is rather creepy.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#648 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:43 pm

I don't necessarily believe those maps resolve confusion that some would understandably have. Even a weakening 120 mph hurricane traversing the state with a brisk forward motion of 20 mph or more, will result in wind gusts that exceed those shown for the Orlando area. That very map addresses the point made by a prior poster and I can understand/appreciate their perspective. I am sure that there are other meso scale forecast maps that must better depict predicted wind speeds.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#649 Postby gatorcane » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:44 pm

TVCN north of NHC:

Image
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#650 Postby Steve » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:52 pm

eastcoastFL wrote:
Steve wrote:Back to the models - early cycle guidance +/- Tampa and metro (ignore green tracks)

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png

Late cycle EPS 18z the same

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... l_late.png

Early cycle intensity guidance is cat 3/4 but notice the falloff before landfall. Cat 1 or 2 based on those.

https://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/realtim ... _early.png


The black line is NHC?


OFCI is official extrapolated 6 hours since it’s a future guidance. So since it’s early cycle 00z they use the official from 18z and extrapolate
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#651 Postby Michele B » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:58 pm

jfk08c wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Kazmit wrote:The strongest winds rarely make their way very far inland. Land imparts a lot of friction on wind which makes it lose momentum. Windspeeds are highest at sea because there’s nothing to slow it down. Compare that to land with all of its trees, buildings, and terrain that all work to stop the wind.

While I agree, I think the effect is over exaggerated on the models. Winds reduce substantially once you move inland from the coast, but it doesn’t drop from 100kt to 25kt in a couple of miles


Yeah, that was my main thinking. I'm aware strongest winds will always be on the coast because there's no land interaction to slow it down. However, seeing 10m winds basically disappear across the entire peninsula while you still have a pressure equivalent of a Cat 1/2 over top of you never made much sense to me. I saw a couple model runs like that with Irma, almost like it didn't calculate wind speed over certain parts of the state


Didn't Helene just show us that?

I know most of the damage was done by water/rain, surge from overflowing rivers/streams, but there were still strong gusts way north of any ocean/gulf source.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#652 Postby Blown Away » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:59 pm

Is there anticipated comprehensive recon in the 00z models tonight?
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#653 Postby Steve » Sun Oct 06, 2024 8:59 pm

Nam 12km is running. Even though the latitude is out of normal range, there is a SW dip toward the Yucatán. Surprised it picked up on that. Mesos will come into agreement with globals 2-3 days out.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 00700&fh=0
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#654 Postby Fancy1002 » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:05 pm

tolakram wrote:18Z Euro

If you're favorite model has changed because you don't like where it sends the storm then you might be doing something wrong. :)

https://i.imgur.com/D7VzaBK.gif

I love the pulsing and contracting look of the model.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#655 Postby Steve » Sun Oct 06, 2024 9:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:Is there anticipated comprehensive recon in the 00z models tonight?


Models started at 7pm Central so whatever the planes are gathering now can’t be in the 00z’s since it’s 02z.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#656 Postby Miami Storm Tracker » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:03 pm

Good evening everyone,
Have not been posting just tracking and watching. Quick question the storm that hit north of where this one appears to be coming in gave me storm surge here in Key Largo. Yes that storm came up from the south, am I clear of surge on this one leaving tomorrow for Europe.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#657 Postby Steve » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:04 pm

Looks like ICON will come in just south of Tampa this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#658 Postby ronjon » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:12 pm

Steve wrote:Looks like ICON will come in just south of Tampa this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=


It's essentially the same as 18z near Sarasota-bradenton. Very similar to 12z Euro-AI track.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#659 Postby redingtonbeach » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:25 pm

Is the GFS still nearly taking out Gainesville? Are the GEFS ensembles in agreement with that more north track?
Last edited by redingtonbeach on Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MILTON - Models

#660 Postby Steve » Sun Oct 06, 2024 10:25 pm

ronjon wrote:
Steve wrote:Looks like ICON will come in just south of Tampa this run.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=


It's essentially the same as 18z near Sarasota-bradenton. Very similar to 12z Euro-AI track.


We are getting within 3 days so I’m not about to argue against icon and ECAI even if they eventually adjust.
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