ATL: MILTON - Models

[Flwxguy86]

I think the uncertainty is fraying everyone nerves, because the official line may be over Sarasota, that by no mean is the final landfall spot, and is also very close to just basically making landfall right into the mouth of Tampa Bay. I know everyone wants clarity now about what is going to happen but it's such a unique set up that I think it's going to be hard to pinpoint any specific area until this really gets moving and is a lot closer to Florida. I think either way the effects are going to be greater than people are probably expecting especially if it grows in size as forecasted to do right before landfall, Places that assume they won't get heavy winds or bad surge might unexpectedly get more than they were expecting.

[chaser1]

Good evening everyone,
Have not been posting just tracking and watching. Quick question the storm that hit north of where this one appears to be coming in gave me storm surge here in Key Largo. Yes that storm came up from the south, am I clear of surge on this one leaving tomorrow for Europe.

Depends. Are you flying coach?

[StPeteMike]

GFS 0z rolling in, has Milton strengthening upon his approach towards the west coast, not weakening. Not good. Looks like still into Pinellas County as well.

[Steve]

GFS coming back down south? 955ish 75 hours.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... -imp&m=gfs

[Steve]

GFS 0z rolling in, has Milton strengthening upon his approach towards the west coast, not weakening. Not good. Looks like still into Pinellas County as well.

Yeah Mike. Cat 2/3 yalls way. Be safe.

[Fancy1002]

I think the uncertainty is fraying everyone nerves, because the official line may be over Sarasota, that by no mean is the final landfall spot, and is also very close to just basically making landfall right into the mouth of Tampa Bay. I know everyone wants clarity now about what is going to happen but it's such a unique set up that I think it's going to be hard to pinpoint any specific area until this really gets moving and is a lot closer to Florida. I think either way the effects are going to be greater than people are probably expecting especially if it grows in size as forecasted to do right before landfall, Places that assume they won't get heavy winds or bad surge might unexpectedly get more than they were expecting.

It looks like the GFS wants to take the wave in front of Milton and turn it into Nadine after it exits Florida.

[BobHarlem]

0z GFS landfall near Crystal River and exits into the Atlantic near St. Augustine, a shift left/north from 18z. A little faster than 18z also.

[Kazmit]

NHC will have to shift their track north. GFS has been pretty good this season so there's no reason not to account for it.

[StPeteMike]

GFS 0z rolling in, has Milton strengthening upon his approach towards the west coast, not weakening. Not good. Looks like still into Pinellas County as well.

Yeah Mike. Cat 2/3 yalls way. Be safe.

I might regret it, but I’ll be staying put here. Even if it weakens to a Cat 3 by approach, he’ll still have Cat 4 storm surge I expect. Far enough away from the water, good there. Thinking about parking the car at one of the free parking garages, just to be safe.

Thanks Steve!

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thanks for the humor chase do appreciate it

[NFLnut]

GFS 0z rolling in, has Milton strengthening upon his approach towards the west coast, not weakening. Not good. Looks like still into Pinellas County as well.

Aside from using GFS for some intensity guidance, NHC hasn't so far bitten on either the GFS or EURO's much farther north tracks since yesterday. GFS has had a bullseye on Brooksville/Cedar Key area since yesterday. NHC has stayed with the consensus models.

[BobHarlem]

0z CMC Shifted a bit left/north to Englewood from Ft. Myers, also a bit slower and stronger. Exits to Atlantic near Melbourne (12z Exit was Jupiter).

[Blown Away]

00z Canadian… Slight N shift but still S outlier near Cape Coral..

[Blown Away]

IMO, decent model consensus being 3 days out anywhere from Ft. Myers to Cedar Key… So I think any N or S wobbles from the track over next 36 hours will be what shifts track N or S…

[LandoWill]

NHC will have to shift their track north. GFS has been pretty good this season so there's no reason not to account for it.

I think they do account for it ,it's the top of the cone lol.

[caneman]

GFS 0z rolling in, has Milton strengthening upon his approach towards the west coast, not weakening. Not good. Looks like still into Pinellas County as well.

Aside from using GFS for some intensity guidance, NHC hasn't so far bitten on either the GFS or EURO's much farther north tracks since yesterday. GFS has had a bullseye on Brooksville/Cedar Key area since yesterday. NHC has stayed with the consensus models.

Actually Crystal River which is a good deal South of Cedar Key. They bit enough to keep it between there and the southern models. They said in their early morning update that they'd be leaning more on the GFS AND EURO. The further southern models UKMET AND CMC haven't been reliable in my opinion.

[caneman]

IMO, decent model consensus being 3 days out anywhere from Ft. Myers to Cedar Key… So I think any N or S wobbles from the track over next 36 hours will be what shifts track N or S…

I think its narrowing further to maybe Port Charlotte or Venice on the Southern end. Throwing out the mostly useless Canadian

[Blown Away]

IMO, decent model consensus being 3 days out anywhere from Ft. Myers to Cedar Key… So I think any N or S wobbles from the track over next 36 hours will be what shifts track N or S…

I think its narrowing further to maybe Port Charlotte or Venice on the Southern end. Throwing out the mostly useless Canadian

Nah man, can’t make any definitive decisions that narrow 3-4 days out. I always like to throw climatology in the mix, and a direct MH landfall between Englewood to Tampa is very rare. ATM, looks like that may change, but still plenty of time to shift 100 miles in any direction.

[chaser1]

Thanks for the humor chase do appreciate it

Have a safe trip!

[caneman]

IMO, decent model consensus being 3 days out anywhere from Ft. Myers to Cedar Key… So I think any N or S wobbles from the track over next 36 hours will be what shifts track N or S…

I think its narrowing further to maybe Port Charlotte or Venice on the Southern end. Throwing out the mostly useless Canadian

Nah man, can’t make any definitive decisions that narrow 3-4 days out. I always like to throw climatology in the mix, and a direct MH landfall between Englewood to Tampa is very rare. ATM, looks like that may change, but still plenty of time to shift 100 miles in any direction.

We will see. I'm not a big climatology as we don't have enough history and data set and each year and each storm adds a new mix to climatology and new firsts.